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Al-Ahram Weekly 23 - 29 September 1999 Issue No. 448 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 23 - 29 September 1999 Issue No. 448
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Comment Focus Special Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Oslo strikes back
By Graham UsherThere has been an air of déjà vu about the occupied territories in the last week. Since the slap-up ceremonial signing of the revised Wye agreement at Sharm Al-Sheikh on 4 September, Israeli pundits have been insistent that this time, after so many false dawns, the Oslo process is truly "back on track". There is also the prospect of a new Declaration of Principles, courtesy of the Framework Agreement for Permanent Status which the Israeli leader hopes to agree to with the Palestinians by February 2000. Finally, on 16 September came the very signature of Oslo diplomacy -- a midnight rendezvous between Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat at the former's home at Kochav Yair just within the Israeli side of the Green Line.
The meeting took all unawares and was not reported until the day after it happened. The surprise was compounded because "secret channels" are not generally Barak's style. On the handful of occasions Barak had met Arafat previously the setting had always been official and publicised. Nor was the tone of the Israeli leader's comments in the run up to the soiree suggestive of a "private dinner between friends", as the meeting was dubbed by Israel's Jerusalem Post newspaper.
Following his vow last week that the Jewish settlement of Maale Adumim (with 25,000 settlers, the largest in the occupied territories) would be "part of the state of Israel forever", on 16 September Barak appointed Shilo Gal as his chief advisor on settlement policy. Gal was for 20 years head of the West Bank's Gush Ezion settlement bloc and is known to belong to the "limiting-the-damage" school of Israeli thought when it comes to handing back territory to the Palestinians.
The appointment drew anger both the Palestinians and the Israeli Left. "Where is the change Barak promised?" asked Peace Now's Secretary-General, Mossi Raz. Gal's appointment carries "the smell of Netanyahu's policy" on settlements, he added. Coincidentally or otherwise, the same day saw Peace Now issue a press statement which showed that Barak's government has issued 2,600 tenders for settlement construction in the occupied territories during its first three months in office compared to an average of 3,000 a year under Netanyahu.
Not that these facts seemed to ruffle the new rapport the two leaders were said to have struck at their 90 minute meeting. On the contrary, "there was a positive discussion in a good atmosphere in preparation for the final status negotiations," the PLO newly appointed chief negotiator for the final status talks, Yasser Abed Rabbo, told Reuters on 17 September. Although one of the four Palestinians at Kochav Yair (the others were Arafat, PLO negotiator Mahmoud Abbass and Palestinian Authority spokesperson, Nabil Abu Rudeineh), Abed Rabbo was less forthcoming about the substance of the discussion. But Palestinian and Israeli sources say that two items were almost certainly on the agenda.
One was the highly successful crackdown on Hamas recently coordinated between Israel, the PA and Jordan. The 16 September meeting was preceded by a secret visit to Israel by Jordan's Foreign Minister, Abed Khatib, at the invitation of Danny Yatom, Barak's "security coordinator" with special responsibility for relations with Jordan. But the summit appears to have been finalised after a phone call from Barak to Arafat during the latter's discussion with King Abdullah in Amman earlier the same day.
Given these moves -- as well as Yatom's attendance at Kochav Yair -- it would indeed be surprising if the new onslaught on Hamas were not a subject of discussion between Arafat, Barak and also Abdullah. After all, their combined efforts have so far yielded the discovery of a Hamas arms cache in the Jordanian town of Karak as well as the de facto expulsion of four of Hamas' most prominent leaders from the Kingdom, developments that have met with the approval of Barak and Arafat. Both have long seen Hamas' Amman-based political leadership as the brain behind the military arms in the West Bank and Gaza.
The other matter, according to Israeli press reports, was that the midnight meeting represented Barak's first stab at enlisting Arafat's support for a "common definition" of UN Resolution 242 as the basis of next February's intended Framework Agreement. This may appear impossible given the gulf that currently divides the two sides on issues like Jerusalem, settlements, borders and refugees. But real agreement is not Barak's intent, says Palestinian political analyst, Khalil Shikaki.
"I think Barak already understands that his conditions for a final status agreement are not going to be acceptable to the Palestinians," says Shikaki. "Rather Barak wants a Framework Agreement to give the illusion to the world that progress is being made and forge a document whose language is so vague -- vaguer even than Oslo's original Declaration of Principles -- that he can then use to impose Israel's interpretation on the final status negotiations".
With such a document in his hands, Barak would be free to focus on negotiations with Syria the better to realise his election pledge to have Israeli troops out of south Lebanon by July 2000.
On the evidence of his first three months in power, Barak may just get his way. For he has not only strengthened a "wall-to-wall" Israeli consensus on the final status issues. He has also extended the timetable and devised the agenda for Oslo's final round of negotiations. In the meantime, the Palestinians have denounced, then refused but in the end always grudgingly accepted every "revision" he has put before them. In this sense, the Israeli pundits are right -- Oslo is back with a vengeance.
