Al-Ahram Weekly 30 Sep. - 6 Oct. 1999 Issue No. 449
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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What next?

By Gamal Essam El-Din

Having won a landslide victory in the referendum, President Hosni Mubarak will be sworn in on Tuesday before a special session of the People's Assembly (PA) to begin a fourth six-year term. The 246 members of the consultative Shura Council will also join the session.

At the beginning of the meeting, Assembly Speaker Fathi Sorour will read out a report by Interior Minister Habib El-Adli on the outcome of the referendum, after which Mubarak will head for the podium to take the constitutional oath. Sorour will also make a brief speech, affirming that parliament's nomination of Mubarak was a reflection of the people's will. Mubarak was nominated by the PA on 8 June and the nomination was later put to the people for approval or rejection in the referendum.

Mubarak acceded to the presidency following the assassination of Anwar El-Sadat in October 1981 and was re-elected to a second term in 1987 and a third term in 1993.

Following Sorour's brief speech, Mubarak will deliver a landmark address, expounding his national agenda for the coming years and affirming commitment to the nation's stability and economic growth.

After the swearing-in ceremony, the cabinet of Prime Minister Kamal El-Ganzouri and the Council of Provincial Governors will submit their resignations to Mubarak in line with the provisions of the constitution. The president will either ask El-Ganzouri to form a new cabinet or will designate a new prime minister.

As millions of Egyptians from all walks of life went to the polls on Sunday to reelect Mubarak for a fourth presidential term, prominent political, religious and cultural figures made statements outlining the reasons for their "yes" vote. For a great many ordinary voters, however, polling day was also a day of festivities

Last Friday, Mubarak, in a television interview, indicated that there will have to be some cabinet changes to bring greater cohesion to the reform process already under way. "It is the public interest that I always take into consideration when I think of introducing changes. When I say 'public interest', I mean the nation's and people's interest. I want to inject new blood [into the cabinet]. Also, I have my own technique in following up on performance and evaluating the reaction of the people. We, as a developing country, need continuity and sustainability in economic reform and development. The change of some persons, ministers or governors, may lead to a change in policies," Mubarak said. The president explained that he does not depend only on the reports submitted to him before taking decisions. "I have other ways to get the information I need," he asserted.

Asked about the possibility of amending the constitution, Mubarak said that "a change in the constitution may be made, but only at the right moment. It is a big responsibility and I should take the utmost care in doing this."

The president also denied reports that his son, Gamal, planned to establish a political party named El-Mustaqbal (future). "What has been said in this respect was based on sheer rumour. Gamal is in fact the head of the El-Mustaqbal Society, which is a non-governmental organisation... My son is a young man who attends meetings at home and abroad and considers this a political activity aimed at serving his country's interests. I encourage all young men who want to exercise political activity [to serve their country]," he explained.

Mubarak also ruled out the possibility that the PA might be dissolved. "The People's Assembly cannot be dissolved because of the deviation of some of its members. The People's Assembly was disbanded twice in the 1980s because the electoral systems used in those parliamentary elections were declared to be unconstitutional. This means that the Assembly can be disbanded only if a constitutional violation is detected by the Supreme Constitutional Court," Mubarak said.

This announcement was received with a sigh of relief by many deputies, especially those belonging to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). The fact that six of its members are currently standing trial for various types of malpractice triggered rumours that parliament would be dissolved following the swearing-in ceremony. Ahmed Abu Zeid, leader of the NDP majority, highly praised Mubarak's position. "This announcement shows again that President Mubarak is very keen on observing constitutional rules when dealing with political institutions. He has proved that he is determined to act as an honest arbiter among the three [executive, legislative and judicial] authorities," Abu Zeid told Al-Ahram Weekly.

According to Abu Zeid, Mubarak took the right decision because dissolution of the PA at this time would amount to punishment of all its members. "There is a very small number of deputies standing trial. Most of them had nominated themselves as independents in the 1995 parliamentary elections and later joined the NDP. If they are involved in wrongdoing and financial irregularities, they should be held responsible, and not the assembly or the NDP," Abu Zeid argued.

In the meantime, there has been much speculation in political and parliamentary circles about the anticipated cabinet reshuffle and the possibility of Mubarak appointing a vice-president. In a recent interview with Ibrahim Nafie, board chairman and editor-in-chief of Al-Ahram, Mubarak said that he is determined to choose "whoever can help me in fulfilling my national commitments". This was seen by many political observers as an indication that Mubarak was planning to appoint a vice-president. For many years, opposition parties have demanded that a vice-president be appointed so that Egypt might not face a power vacuum in an emergency.

As for the cabinet reshuffle, the general expectation is that El-Ganzouri will be retained. El-Ganzouri became minister of economic planning in 1985 and was promoted in January 1996 to prime minister. He reshuffled his cabinet in July 1997 in order to speed up the privatisation programme, get the economy out of a state of recession and upgrade public services.

According to Abu Zeid, the record of El-Ganzouri's government has proved to be excellent in realising these national achievements. "El-Ganzouri's government has phased out many burdensome taxes and fees with the objective of raising the income of the under-privileged classes and encouraging the private sector to pour greater investment into the national economy. This government also took the decision to implement a number of mega-development projects; it closely followed them up and turned some of them into reality in a short period of time," Abu Zeid said.

Others, however, such as Wafd deputy Ayman Nour, are of the view that El-Ganzouri's government has been incompetent in various respects. Nour said that this government was not able to address the nation's prime problem, which is the difficulty to boost exports and efficiently deal with the huge trade balance deficit. "El-Ganzouri's government, in trying to implement several projects at the same time, has created a squeeze on cash resources which has led to what seems now to be a chronic liquidity crisis in Egyptian banks," he said. In political terms, Nour added, there appears to be a lack of cooperation between the NDP and the government. "There is a kind of power conflict between the two sides. The imminent cabinet reshuffle will show which side has emerged triumphant," he said.

Egypt has had 42 cabinet reshuffles since the anti-monarchy revolution of July 1952. The anticipated cabinet change will be the 11th under Mubarak.

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