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Al-Ahram Weekly 7 - 13 October 1999 Issue No. 450 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 7 - 13 October 1999 Issue No. 450
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Interview Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Like father, like son?
By Salama Ahmed Salama
By raising the issue of political succession in the Arab world, Martin Indyk broke the silence that has long shrouded the question in this region. In a keynote address delivered at the annual meeting of the Middle East Studies Institute in Washington, he said that next year could witness substantial changes in political succession in certain Arab capitals, and that preparations for such changes were actually underway in Syria and the United Arab Emirates. He suggested that changes could also occur in Libya and Iraq, although he admitted that the conditions in these two countries were very different from those prevailing in Syria and the UAE.
Arab culture tends to deal with matters of life and death in a fatalistic manner and, in keeping with this preference, the Arab media have ignored Indyk's predictions. Before death actually occurs, little effort is made to anticipate the consequences, even if the destiny of millions is at stake. No one else approaches political matters with such fatalism today -- especially not the United States and Israel. Plans, alternatives and worst-case scenarios are subjected to thorough study. Data and facts are collected, analysed and checked in Washington and Tel Aviv. Indyk, therefore, was only scraping the surface.
Any regular reader of the Israeli press must have noticed the barrage of allusions and comments regarding succession in Syria and in the PA. No special skills in analysis and deduction are necessary to establish links between the staggering peace process and the obstacles and disputes Israel invents every day, even with respect to issues settled long ago.
To the Arabs, time is a liability. Awareness of time is a national security imperative, not a topic for poets or philosophers to address. Indyk's analysis of potential change in the Arab world shows clearly that America's only concern is to ensure that such change will coincide with the projected design of the Middle East settlement, in terms of both chronology and actual events. This is why Indyk was so intent on urging Arafat and Assad to use the international community's respect as leverage in pushing for peace. Indyk pointed out tactfully that, due to King Hassan's sudden death, a golden opportunity to solve the problem of the Moroccan Sahara had been lost. The monarch's death aborted many US efforts to reach a settlement, which further complicated matters.
US policy, however, does not seem overly concerned with settling the question of succession. Indyk pointed out that the hereditary succession common among Arab regimes is in line with US goals of continuity, as reflected by the successful transmission of power in Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain, and by the close ties that have linked late rulers' sons with US institutions. The US administration makes no effort to conceal its satisfaction with the young generation of Arab rulers, who speak a more "realistic" language and react to developments in the peace process with greater flexibility.
The question of succession in the Arab world may be the key to understanding the US's evaluation of the situation in the Arab world. It further justifies Albright's desire to see multilateral negotiations resume, despite the fact that the peace process is still doing the fox-trot on the Palestinian track. On the Syrian-Lebanese track, US efforts are focused on bringing pressure to bear on Syria, as the flurry of optimism surrounding an imminent Assad-Clinton meeting subsides.
Finally, if we disregard the need to take the upcoming elections into consideration, we may conclude that neither the US nor Israel is in any hurry. But will the new generation of Arab rulers prove more flexible than their parents? This remains to be seen.
