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Al-Ahram Weekly 14 - 20 October 1999 Issue No. 451 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 14 - 20 October 1999 Issue No. 451
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Books Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Return to sender?
By Salah HemeidUnder instructions from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, senior Iraqi officials last week left their villas on the west bank of the river Tigris in the fashionable Al-Harthiya neighbourhood of Baghdad to join a military training course on fire arms and battle techniques. Saddam did not explain why top officials like Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan or deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz required such military training, but the state-owned media suggested that increasing American threats played a role. The move came soon after thousands of Iraqi students ended their summer military training courses, which the government said were a precaution against possible American military action.
The commencement of the Iraqi leaders' training coincided with reports in Amman that Saddam had asked Jordan's King Abdullah to carry a message to the US Administration in which he reportedly expressed his willingness to open a new chapter in the two countries' troubled relations. Similar requests have reportedly previously been made through several Arab governments with close ties with Washington. The diplomatic overture also accompanied another Iraqi gesture, being the official media's starting to talk for the first time since the end of the 1991 Gulf War about "flexibility" in Iraq's position vis-à-vis the United States.
While some analysts say that the Iraqi position has not changed significantly, and by letting the official media focus on the training course of his lieutenants, Saddam has merely again highlighted his regime's deep problems with the United States, others suggest that Saddam's conciliatory message to President Clinton points to some important changes. They say that Saddam has not only offered to co-operate with the United Nations to solve the lingering dispute over its weapons inspections but has also implemented a political reform programme inside Iraq and, more importantly, has begun to play "a positive" role in the Middle East peace process, which may include establishing ties with Israel. These issues, analysts say, were the primary sources of conflict between Iraq and the US, and the Americans had demanded movement on these points before any possible improvement in relations could take place.
Although neither Saddam nor his key spokesman have mentioned a new strategy, the proposals contained in the message, if true, would mark a monumental shift in policy, which analysts believe would signal desperation on the part of the Iraqi regime and its willingness to make concessions.
The Unites States has not, however, softened its intractable line on Iraq. In the first American reaction to Iraqi moves, State Department Spokesman James Rubin said the administration was not interested in reconciliation with Saddam's regime, indicating that a solution to Iraq's problems were still some way ahead despite increased Iraqi flexibility. Some reports have even suggested that senior US officials had asked King Abdullah not to raise the issue with Clinton, but to concentrate instead on more 'important' issues, such as the Middle East peace process.
Analysts have speculated that the American rebuff to Saddam's gesture stems from the impasse over the disputed Iraqi weapons programmes and Washington's demand that Iraq should comply fully with the UN Security Council's resolutions. Moreover, with the Iraq issue still a flash point in American domestic politics, Washington is not well positioned to respond flexibly to Saddam's overtures.
Relaxing the American grip on Saddam would be unpopular during an election year, and Republicans could use this to undermine Vice President Al Gore's presidential bid. Just days before reports of Saddam's peace initiative surfaced, Washington reiterated its desire to see him ousted, confirmed the continuation of its containment policy, and promised to begin military assistance to Iraqi exile groups under the 1997 Iraq Liberation Bill. A State Department report concluded last month that the Iraqi regime was weaker than at any time since the Gulf War and that opposition inside Iraq was growing even among Saddam's power base in the ruling party and in the army.
Saddam may have decided that the time for change has arrived, and he may be trying to initiate what will inevitably be a long and torturous process to achieve it. However, Washington seems disinclined to negotiate with an already sinking regime. King Abdullah's message is therefore likely to be greeted with a terse 'return to sender.'
