 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 21 - 27 October 1999 Issue No. 452 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 21 - 27 October 1999 Issue No. 452
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Shaking off complacency
By Fatemah FaragIt was no more than a few minutes that shook Cairo on that fated 12 October in 1992. They were minutes, however, that left in their wake shattered lives and memories not easily erased.
Last week's earthquake scare is testimony to the collective trauma. The rumour, whose origins remain unknown, spread like wildfire on Saturday night: CNN had reported a Japanese prediction that an earthquake would hit Egypt; people fled their homes to the streets, social clubs and public gardens in terror. "I am not taking any risks with my children," explained Fawzia Mohamed, a mother of two. Fawzia chose the site of a public garden in front of her house to set up camp. Others on the alert opted to stay home. "I will be sleeping on the living room floor," explained Shawki Abdel-Rehim. "That way I can feel things sooner and take action. Every time we have had even the slightest tremor since the 1992 quake, this is what I do."
Collective alarm was fortified by a mild quake that took place in the governorate of Beni Suef two days earlier. The fact that the timing of the news item coincided with the seventh anniversary of the 1992 quake, not to mention recent images of horror in Turkey, Greece and Taiwan flashing across television screens, hardly helped the situation.
"The news item had no legitimacy whatsoever," scoffed Abdel-Fatah Galal, head of the Centre for Geophysics and of the National Earthquake Network. "It was not scientific. Science cannot specify where, when and how strong a quake will be." According to Galal, most Egyptian territory is safe. "Egypt is only affected by two quake belts. One, the African-Horn Belt in the Aqaba Gulf area, is a low-activity belt 390 kilometres away from Cairo. The other is the Helini Belt in the west Mediterranean which affects our northern coast. It is 700 kilometers away from Cairo and has almost no effect on Upper Egypt."
Be that as it may, quakes are not new to Egypt. As far as documented history goes, between 2200BC and until 1899AD, Egypt was shaken by 83 major earthquakes. Take for example the quake of 1210BC which left cracks in the Temple of Abu Simbel and the statue of Ramsis II, or the quake of 796AD which demolished the Alexandria lighthouse. Major damage was done to the Amoun Temple of Siwa in 1811AD and 50 people were killed in the Western Desert in 1955. But most relevant to us today is the quake of 1992 which killed and seriously injured hundreds and caused LE4 billion worth of damage.
In the aftermath of that shock the government set up the National Earthquake Network. "The importance of this network is that it can identify areas with high quake activity. Compiling a map of Egyptian quake zones allows us to choose the most suitable areas for major projects," explained Galal, adding that there were other benefits to be reaped. "For example, the apparatus used to identify quake movement can also discover antiquities and underground water wells."
Despite the obvious improvement the network has made in Egypt's quake alertness, many specialists warn against becoming complacent.
"You know the saying: earthquakes do not kill but buildings do? Well, it is very true," explained Dr Ezzat Sobieh, professor of architecture at Cairo University and head of the Egyptian Society for Earthquake Architecture. "The evidence is obvious. Just look at Japan where they have very strong earthquakes but minimum damage and look at Turkey which is also prone to strong earthquakes but suffered much greater damage."
Sobieh outlines a sad truth. Developing countries may obtain sophisticated equipment, may draft exemplary laws, but in the absence of relevant implementation procedure these are rendered ineffective. "Can you believe that Turkey has a very sophisticated earthquake engineering centre? They have developed many studies and have excellent codes. But without implementation procedures look what happened. In Egypt, our situation is similar to Turkey."
An anti-quake building code, the brainchild of Sobieh, has been available since 1988 to any engineer willing to use it. The Ministry of Housing has also drafted and passed its own code, which is theoretically binding.
But to cut a long and ultra-technical story short, many architects believe that the ministry's code is based on calculations that underestimate the quake-proneness of Egypt's land surface. "Even if an engineer does use the code it is most probably as good as doing nothing," argues Sobieh.
An issue of course is cost. Sobieh explained that the code adds an additional 3 to 15 per cent to the cost of the building, "depending on the kind of finishing. Luxurious finishing such as wood floors and marble entrances cost much more than the actual skeleton of the building. So in very fancy buildings it would be a minimum addition to overall costs to quake-proof a building. In low-income buildings, where there are no such additions, the percentage would obviously be higher."
The dilemmas surrounding building codes and their implementation are central to making Egypt quake-safe. "The catastrophe is that losses come as a result of badly constructed buildings. You would think extra costs would be a marginal issue when we are talking about saving people's lives. As scientists we cannot stop earthquakes. We can only develop technology to make our environment safer when subjected to a quake," explained Galal.
While Sobieh believes the coding of future buildings is an urgent issue, he also argues that it is necessary to compile a comprehensive architectural inventory. "Everything from buildings to bridges needs to be assessed and those things which need strengthening must be fixed. Not only has this not been done, you will find that many buildings racked in 1992 have not yet been repaired," he laments.
Part of the problem is the lack of specialisation. "Here at the university the older generation of professors does not know about these things and there is resistance against institutionalisng the study. We have, however, been convening a three-day course for engineers. The seventh round of such training will begin on 15 November. We do what we can but unfortunately there is a tendency for people to bury their heads in the sand in the face of potential danger."
On this point, Ahmed Naguib, researcher at the Academy of Scientific Research had much to fret over. "We always have very impressive things to say but we falter when it comes to implementation. Here at the Academy we prepared an awareness manual in 1993 and sent it to the Ministry of Education and to the People's Assembly and the Shura Council. There was no money, it was a politically sensitive moment, and for one reason or another no action was ever taken. It is very demoralising."
For Naguib awareness is a crucial issue in dealing with crisis situations. "The panic created by a crisis can be more dangerous than the crisis itself. That is why on the one hand the government should be well prepared with scenario options that are thought out in advance and information regarding potentially dangerous areas and how many people will need to be serviced. On the other hand, people need to know what to do and how to react to facilitate emergency aid," he added.
While the specialists argue policy and the fate of many of Cairo's buildings stands in the balance, here are a few pointers Naguib suggests would be useful: If you feel a quake coming on, hide under a table or desk and don't be afraid about people laughing at you. The space under a table saves oxygen that could save your life; stay away from windows and mirrors and shut off electricity from the source. Most important: do not panic.
