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Al-Ahram Weekly 25 Nov. - 1 Dec. 1999 Issue No. 457 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 25 Nov. - 1 Dec. 1999 Issue No. 457
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Sudanese power play
By Mohamed KhaledThe power struggle between Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and the country's powerful parliamentary speaker Hassan Al-Turabi reached unprecedented levels last week when Al-Turabi ignored Al-Bashir's request to postpone amendments that would drastically shrink his power.
While Al-Bashir currently acts as both president and prime minister, the proposed amendments call for the election of the prime minister by members of parliament and for the accountability of ministers to parliament. They also call for allowing parliament to remove the president by a two-thirds majority vote and for the direct election of state governors.
At present, the president nominates three candidates for the post of state governor, one of whom is then elected. The amendments would also prevent the president from sacking governors except during a state of emergency or without parliamentary approval.
While the state of acute crisis between the two men receded slightly this week following consultations between supporters of Al-Bashir and Al-Turabi, any eventual settlement still appears far off. The feud is the latest development in the two men's power struggle of the past year, which led to widespread discussion in the Sudanese press, and has now left Khartoum charged with rumours and conflicting expectations.
When Al-Bashir suddenly canceled a scheduled trip to South Africa and other African countries last week, many journalists called on the two men to disclose details of their conflict to the public. Al-Turabi, however, denied the existence of any conflict, saying instead that a "dialogue in a democratic atmosphere" was taking place.
"It is normal in all regimes to have similar conflicts between the legislative and executive authorities," he said. Nevertheless Al-Bashir recently extended a private invitation to over 100 members of parliament after an official request to meet with all MPs was rejected. According to press reports, at the meeting Al-Bashir complained of Al-Turabi's actions, adding that they had allegedly violated political norms, and were aimed at a monopoly of power at the president's expense.
"The repeated hostile attempts of Al-Turabi may push me to take a political decision against him," Al-Bashir was quoted as telling MPs during the meeting.
Such statements have raised expectations of a counter attack from Al-Turabi's side, since Al-Turabi, as parliamentary speaker under the constitution, has the right to dissolve parliament and political parties and to declare a state of emergency in the country.
Most analysts have ruled out the possibility of any such reaction on Al-Turabi's part, however. "It is most unlikely that Al-Turabi will resort to force, because he lacks the necessary control over the army, security and other organised forces," said one observer.
As the situation currently stands, while Al-Bashir does not seem to have given up in his attempts to secure his position, according to some observers Al-Turabi appears to be the winner.
"The recent move is a continuation of the victory he achieved over Al-Bashir at the founding conference of the ruling party's National Congress two months ago," said one observer.
Over the last year, Al-Bashir has seen many of his powers transferred to Al-Turabi, with Al-Turabi advocating the recent proposed amendments as necessary to "satisfy the opposition."
However according to a statement issued this week by the banned Communist Party of Sudan, "Al-Turabi's real intention is to proceed with the Islamist project by other means and, at the same time, to restore his old allies."
Most of the controversy surrounding the latest power struggle in Sudan is over whether it should be understood as an internal issue within the ruling elite, or whether it relates to recent calls for a political settlement from the opposition. According to Mohamed Elhassan Ahmed, a Sudanese analyst, the former analysis is the correct one. This was "essentially a battle between the government and the ruling National Congress (NC). The confrontation between the two has now reached a level where each is working to liquidate and demolish the power of the other."
As far as the ongoing efforts to bring government and opposition, under the umbrella of the Asmara-based National Democratic Alliance (NDA), to the negotiating table, the current conflict makes the task even more difficult. "At the moment there are two centres within the government. With whom should the opposition sit, if it decides [to pursue] a dialogue: with Al-Bashir or with Al-Turabi?" asked one commentator.
Though the debate on the proposed amendments is temporarily on hold, waiting on a possible compromise between Al-Bashir and Al-Turabi, many observers still believe that Al-Turabi is serious about carrying them through.
The amendments are an important part of his strategy for reconciliation with the opposition, which, he hopes, would split the NDA, with one or more factions defecting to government ranks.
"Rumours in Khartoum increasingly favour speculation that the proposed prime minister's post is being carefully tailored for a leading opposition figure to fill," said one analyst, press reports saying that the figure might be the former Sudanese prime minister and leader of the Ummah Party, Sadeq Al-Mahdi, who met with Al-Turabi in Geneva earlier this year.
However reports added that Al-Bashir, who ended a visit to Ethiopia on Friday, had been scheduled to meet Al-Mahdi in Addis Ababa. While the meeting did not take place "for logistical reasons," according to Ummah Party sources, the sources added that arrangements were underway to hold another meeting between Al-Mahdi and Al-Bashir "in the very near future."
