 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Heritage Millennium Features Profile Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Year of the Sudan
By Dina EzzatMuch water flowed under the bridge last year in terms of foreign policy: the ups and downs in Cairo-Washington relations, the good times and bad times in Egypt's ties with its Arab neighbours, the tough confrontations in the World Trade Organisation and the increasing coordination with like-minded developing and developed countries, particularly in the field of trade and economic cooperation.
However, for Egyptian foreign policy, 1999 could best be described as the year of Sudan. After almost a decade of tension between the two Nile Valley countries, relations between Cairo and Khartoum made progress that allowed for the first presidential visit to Cairo by the Sudanese head-of-state in six years. Today, Cairo is considering its candidate for an ambassador to Sudan, a post that has been vacant for the past five years. Cairo also went as far as sending Foreign Minister Amr Moussa on a visit to Khartoum on Tuesday to further demonstrate the thaw in bilateral relations.
Restoring warmth with Sudan, on condition that Sudan shows full commitment to steering clear of inciting unrest in Egypt or any other neighbouring Arab country, is certainly considered a major achievement for Egyptian diplomacy. This improvement in bilateral relations should put Egypt in a better position to help bring about a reconciliation between the Khartoum government and its many opposition factions, pre-empting plans for dividing Sudan into a northern Arab state and a southern Christian-animist one.
"Today, Egypt is in a position to help on the Sudan issue, either through the joint Egyptian-Libyan initiative [for reconciliation and peace in Sudan] or through the close relations [that are being re-established] with Sudan," commented Moussa.
Consequently, Sudan has become one concern less for Egyptian diplomacy. There are, however, many other worries that could still nag Egypt's top diplomat throughout this year-- and thereafter.
The failure to convene an Arab summit, despite the admitted need for it, is one such worry. Others include making decisions on the nature of relations with Iran and, most importantly, averting confrontations with the US over Egypt's regional role.
The countdown to the final settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict appears to have started. Most informed estimates suggest that the year 2001 will probably see the conclusion of Arab-Israeli peace negotiations. Egypt is finding it increasingly difficult to accept a scenario where peace is being made between Arabs and Israelis -- as vital for Middle East interests as this may be -- while harsh disputes continue to divide Arab ranks. As "a", if not "the", leading Arab state, Egypt cannot afford to disengage from inter-Arab problems because, if this happened, it would simply erode Cairo's credibility as "an Arab power", particularly once it has little to do as a "peace broker".
"This failure [to organise an Arab summit] should not be attributed to a deficiency in performance on the part of Egyptian diplomacy. The state of Egypt's relations with the Arab countries is not the reason why this summit has not been convened," commented an Egyptian diplomat. He argued that there is a simple, yet paramount, reason that stands in the way of an Arab summit: "Lack of consensus among the Arab countries on how to approach Iraq."
According to this source, Egypt has exerted much effort to prod all the Arab countries to achieve a consensus on adopting a "moderate" approach in dealing with Iraq. The January 1999 extraordinary meeting of Arab foreign ministers saw some success made in this direction. Yet, there are two Gulf states that still refuse to go to an overall Arab summit that includes Iraq, or to go to a summit that would produce a decision of more flexibility on the Iraq issue. "And you cannot have a summit that falls short of meeting these two points," commented the source.
Syria is another country that may not feel comfortable with an Arab summit at this point. This stance is not related to Iraq, but to the Middle East peace process.
Syria is in the midst of negotiations with Israel that are proceeding separately from whatever is taking place on the Palestinian track. Damascus would not want to go to an Arab summit that reintroduces the concept of closer coordination between the Syrian and Palestinian tracks -- something the Syrians are determined to do without -- the source said. Moreover, at the negotiating table, the Syrians may have to redefine some of their interests, which they would not want to do in a collective fashion.
So, there are at least three Arab countries who say they oppose an Arab summit. Egypt sees otherwise.
According to Moussa, long or short-term inter-Arab differences should not close the door before an Arab summit. Cairo believes that a summit cannot wait for these problems to be resolved. A summit, Cairo also argues, should not be hijacked by developments in the Middle East peace process that has exclusively gripped the attention and consumed the political energy of the Arabs throughout the second half of the last century.
Said Moussa: "The purpose of the summit is to deliberate on wide-scale Arab interests. It is a strategic mistake to obstruct the convening of the summit." According to the foreign minister, the mere convocation of the summit, after due preparations that "should be made under a deadline", could "create an atmosphere conducive to solving inter-Arab problems".
Egypt seems to be committed to working on increasing the possibilities of holding an Arab summit this year although, in the words of one insider, "Nobody could say for sure that this is going to happen."
To serve this purpose, Cairo is planning a number of bilateral consultations at the ministerial and summit levels, with the need to organise an Arab summit figuring high on the agendas. In another step to give momentum to the slow inter-Arab coordination, Cairo will host an overdue meeting of the foreign ministers of the Damascus Declaration next March on the fringes of the regular Arab League ministerial council.
This said, nobody in Cairo or any other Arab capital could exclude the US factor when addressing the possibilities of an Arab summit. "The US is not making a secret of its disinterest in having an Arab summit held any time soon," said one insider. He added, "The argument the Americans make is that Israel gets apprehensive when an Arab summit convenes and that this would be a bad time to make Israel apprehensive."
Moreover, diplomatic sources say, the US does not want to see the Arabs moving closer towards reintegrating Iraq within the Arab community. Given the joint defence agreements that the US has with some Gulf states, these Arab countries will find it incumbent upon them to consult with Washington on their Iraq policies.
"There is no doubt that the Americans want to exercise their containment of Iraq even from within the Arab world," commented a diplomatic source.
This American wish is not something that Egypt could dismiss very easily. After all, Cairo -- which has had problems with Washington over the assessment of Israel's attitude in the peace process, particularly on the Palestinian track -- may not find it wise to swim against the tide. Despite the drop in US economic aid to Egypt, there are still enough political and economic interests with the US that Egypt has to worry about.
Closer, or even normalised, relations with Iran is another issue on which Egypt may need to make a breakthrough this year. Again, it is an issue that could be subject to controversy between Cairo and Washington, which has been switching moods over Tehran.
But chances are that 2000 could be the year of normalisation with Iran, if Tehran demonstrates enough political will to meet Cairo halfway.
In the words of Egyptian and Iranian diplomats, 1999 witnessed "major progress in bilateral relations" that had been severed for over two decades. This included Egypt's participation in a leading Tehran trade fair where, in an obvious political overture, it was awarded a prize. Iran also participated in the Cairo trade fair with a big pavilion. Trade officials, businessmen and media representatives of the two countries exchanged almost regular visits, with the support of both governments. Positive political statements continued to flow out of the two capitals even when some newspapers on both sides were engaged in a war of words.
This positive attitude is likely to continue at least through the first few weeks of this year. In February, Iran will be organising parliamentary elections that will witness a decisive confrontation between reformists and conservatives. A clear victory by the reformists would encourage Egypt to inch closer in Tehran's direction.
A rapprochement with Iran would be helped by the readiness of Tehran to peacefully solve its dispute with the United Arab Emirates over three Gulf islands. Security authorities in Egypt will also need to give the all-clear message that past worries over Iran "exporting" its Islamist revolution to Egypt are over. Commented one diplomat: "In short, Cairo will need to make sure that normalising relations with Iran would be founded on the right basis. Cairo is already having disputes with the US over Iraq and the peace process; it is hard to see the Egyptian government adding yet another item to the list of [issues of] disagreements in the absence of enough guarantees for a potential normalisation."
The year 2000 could prove to be another test for Egyptian-US relations. It would show how much Washington is prepared to go in tolerating differences with Cairo over the latter's regional role. It would also show how much Egypt is prepared to do to maintain unruffled ties with the White House.
