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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Heritage Millennium Features Profile Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Preparing for a new parliament
By Gamal Essam El-DinAhead of parliamentary elections, debates usually heat up in political circles over the issue of reforms directed towards a greater exercise of democracy. With parliamentary elections scheduled for November, this year's run-up to the elections is no exception.
The debate was touched off this time by no other than President Hosni Mubarak himself who, in his speech opening the current session of parliament, promised that "the next elections will be clean and characterised by integrity." In the president's words: "We are not obstructing the opposition's attempts to achieve a more balanced representation in parliament and nothing bars us from exploring the most suitable ways to realise this."
Mubarak's statement received a positive reaction in opposition circles. A variety of opposition figures held that Mubarak's words implied an admission that the 1995 elections were marred by undemocratic practices and that effective measures should be taken to ensure that this year's elections will not be blemished by such practices.
In pro-government circles, however, President Mubarak's statement was met with conflicting interpretations. In a series of announcements, two of the key players on the political scene; Fathi Sorour, the speaker of the People's Assembly; and Kamal El-Shazli, minister of state for parliamentary affairs, rushed to opine on Mubarak's statement.
One week after Mubarak's speech to parliament, Sorour affirmed that the president's pledge to ensure a more balanced representation of government and opposition forces in the new parliament required that the laws governing the electoral system be revised. Sorour said that the slate system, under which candidates are required to run collectively on party lists for each constituency, was bound to produce a more representative parliament. Sorour's comments were praised in opposition circles and some opposition figures went as far as to speculate that several committees had been established to introduce a mixed electoral system that combines the individual candidacy and the slate systems.
The candidacy system currently in force requires candidates to run individually, regardless of whether they are independent or affiliated with a political party.
A few days later, however, Sorour took political analysts by surprise when he reversed his positions, saying instead that the individual candidacy system would be retained in this year's parliamentary elections. The shock assumed greater proportions when El-Shazli followed by affirming that the government has no plans to modify the individual candidacy system. He asserted that during a National Dialogue Conference held five years ago, the opposition criticised the slate system and suggested that the individual system is more appropriate for this country.
To many in opposition circles, Sorour's and El-Shazli's comments amounted to a retraction of Mubarak's pledge because they indicated an intention to maintain the status quo. "Mubarak's statement suggests that the opposition and the government should cooperate in exploring the best means for ensuring a more balanced representation in parliament," said Hassan Hafez, a member of the Wafd Party's Higher Council, "but this suggestion was quashed by Sorour and El-Shazli who now insist on applying the system they prefer without consulting the opposition. Who gave them this right? It is really a bad omen for the next elections."
Although due 10 months from now, the coming November parliamentary elections are already sparking heated debate
In his speech, President Mubarak also had promised that the next elections would be held under full judicial supervision in all their stages. However, Sorour, to the further dismay of opposition parties, announced that full judicial supervision is "quite impossible because Egypt does not have enough judges to bring elections in all their stages under judicial supervision."
For his part, El-Shazli rejected a proposal that the elections be spread over several days on the grounds that this would waste the judiciary's time and delay court proceedings. Hafez said that by making these "pre-emptive" announcements Sorour and El-Shazli, emptied Mubarak's speech of its content and even prepared the ground for the rigging of the next elections.
For Ayman Nour, a Wafdist deputy, El-Shazli's and Sorour's insistence on the individual candidacy system means that opposition parties will continue to have to deal with unfair elections. "It seems that the talk about integrity is something abstract and we have to be ready to face a new cycle of hooliganism and acts of armed thuggery which are the by-products of the individual system," Nour told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Recent indications show that it will continue to be difficult for the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood to win seats in the upcoming election. Some analysts argued that the main reason behind the official preference for the individual system is that it effectively prevents the group's candidates from winning seats. In the 1984 and 1987 elections, the Brotherhood, running in alliance with opposition parties under the slate system, was able to win 20 and 45 parliamentary seats respectively. Such results were never repeated when the individual candidacy system was used in the 1990 and 1995 elections. "The state still views the group as the mother of all Islamist militants," Nour said. "It has quashed the attempts by its members to obtain legal recognition by forming political parties, not to mention that 20 of its most prominent members are now on trial. During the 1995 elections, 54 leading group members were sentenced to prison terms of between three and five years. Despite the apparently remote possibility, I hope the group will be able to win seats because this will give credence to Mubarak's promise of a more balanced representation," said Nour.
Recent pointers also show that a boycott of the elections is not an option under consideration by the major opposition parties. On the contrary, they are expected to field a greater number of candidates. Initial estimates suggest that the liberal Wafd Party will field some 200 candidates on its ticket, compared to 182 in the 1995 elections. The Islamist-oriented Labour Party is expected to have at least 150 candidates in the elections, having run 120 in 1995. As for the leftist Tagammu and Nasserist parties, each is expected to field 50 candidates, meaning that they are running only a few more than they did in 1995 when they had 40 and 43 candidates respectively. As for independent candidates, political analysts expect businessmen will be the most numerous group among these, followed by lawyers and journalists.
In 1995, 3,980 candidates ran in parliamentary elections. This year, the number of candidates may reach 4,000, of whom approximately 3,000 will be independents. The NDP will likely field candidates for each of parliament's 444 seats, compared with 439 in 1995. Some NDP members not on the official party list can run as independents.
There are reports that the NDP candidates will be scrutinised closely during the upcoming elections due to the involvement of a number of the party's deputies in cases of illegal financial transactions during the last five years.
Nour said that the "next elections should be free and fair. It is no longer acceptable that Egypt's first parliament in the new millennium should include such a small number of opposition deputies [13]. We all have to live up to the president's promise that the next parliament will be characterised by a more balanced representation."
