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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Heritage Millennium Features Profile Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Viva the paradise lost
By Hisham El-Naggar
It's been a good millennium. The century's been so-so. The decade has been average; the year a minor disaster. It may sound like cocktail-party gossip, but it accurately summarises the feelings of many Latin Americans.
For Latin Americans, as well as for the Americans up north, the millennium that has just expired marked their birth: first as colonies -- the first Spanish settlements in the New World were born in the early 16th century, shortly after the discovery of America -- and later as independent countries. Argentina was the first to attain its independence, in provisional form, in 1810; and then definitively in 1816.
The 20th century coincided with the coming of age of most Latin American republics, and it has been a bumpy century for most of them. The promise of spectacular growth that would allow countries like Mexico, Brazil and Argentina to occupy places alongside the economic giants of the world has slowly faded away. Of all the Latin American countries, Brazil is the only one with an economy that can be said to be "world-class" -- it is the eighth largest in the world. But this has hardly translated into a decent standard of living for most Brazilians. Increasingly, the New World's Latins have taken to sizing themselves up against their European forebears and their powerful neighbour to the north, and many have reached the conclusion that catching up is not easily achieved.
Growing pains were manifested as disenchantment with democracy, giving rise to military or authoritarian governments that promised to facilitate the transition to First World status. The results have been, to say the least, disappointing. Mexico, which since its great revolution in 1910 has seen political power almost monopolised by the Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI), stagnated until late in the century, when it launched a massive industrial drive, and found that growth accentuated, rather than mitigated, income disparities.
By the 1970s, deep disillusionment with economic performance and corrupt governments who considered themselves above the law, engendered a predictable response in many countries: armed insurrection. The Latin-American guerrilla -- no doubt inspired by the Cuban Revolution, whose success in gaining power in the 1960s was an inspiration to idealistic youth throughout the region -- became another stereotype for American TV viewers. Much of Latin America fell prey to civil war or urban insurrection. Big brother America (as the US likes to think itself) did not hesitate to side with the ruling governments, no matter how repressive (Guatemala and El Salvador are obvious examples), and with counter-revolutions in countries where guerrillas have succeeded (Nicaragua, for instance).
In the southern part of South America, particularly vicious right-wing dictatorships took over to "nip insurrection in the bud" -- although in most cases the risk of a Communist takeover was quite far-fetched. In the case of Chile, the world's one experiment in a democratically-elected Marxist government was finished off. Only in the 1980s did the right-wing dictators of the region begin to turn over power to democratic governments, to which they bequeathed a crippling debt burden.
This was the last decade of a century that can be said to have enshrined social inequality as almost an integral part of the political and economic structure of Latin America. Capitalising on the frustration following the 1980s, a period known as "the lost decade" in Latin America was ushered in, characterised by the foreign debt crisis, deep recession and inflation (in the cases of Argentina and Brazil, hyperinflation). "Neo-liberal" economists of the Chicago-School variety descended on the continent and basically won over its rulers and, at least up to a point, the population, with the idea of so-called laissez-faire economics.
Cuba is obviously not included in this category, though in the past few years even Fidel Castro has relented to the extent of liberalising the tourist sector to attract foreign investors -- an attempt to compensate for the baleful effects of the US boycott and the collapse of the Soviet bloc, formerly the island' s main trading partner.
The decade started well for most countries, as they successfully restructured their debt and resumed access to international credit. Orthodox fiscal policy -- read: higher taxes and lower government spending on social services -- finally tamed inflation in most countries. Recession gave way to growth, but, not surprisingly, most of the benefits from this growth went to a small minority. In many cases, the real winners were foreign companies that had won privatisation contracts and cheerfully indulged in monopolistic practises that would never have been permitted in their own countries.
No one can deny the benefits that accrued from resumed growth and the return of economic stability. Argentinians and Brazilians, in particular, have adjusted to a new reality in which prices do not change daily. Argentina, in fact, boasts one of the lowest inflation rates in the world. But income inequality has become glaring. Latin American cities are increasingly becoming composite worlds: elegant neighbourhoods with stately mansions, manicured lawns and electric gates and armed guards; and run-down conglomerations undergoing daily decay. In the countryside, the contrast is often even more striking. In some places, dazzling country homes (often doubling as weekend residences for the elite) coexist with shacks where there is no running water or decent sewage disposal.
Taxes? But of course; the obvious method for governments weary of falling behind on their debt payments is consumption-based taxes. They are easy to collect and have the advantage of affecting the wealthy and powerful only marginally. Latin America not only has the unfortunate distinction of having one the world's least equitable income distributions, but its rulers' fondness for regressive taxation, consistently prescribed by international financial institutions, threatens to worsen an already sorry state of affairs.
The 1990s saw the dismantling of much of the state apparatus which, for better or for worse, had provided a measure of social protection. Gone are many of the industries developed as a substitute for imports -- admittedly, most were quite inefficient. The emphasis now is on efficiency; which, Latin Americans are told, is the way to become economically competitive. Hence the amazing phenomenon of sharply increased productivity, coupled with declining -- or, at best, stagnating -- purchasing power of labour: precisely the reason why investors get richer and the workers poorer.
The social dislocation this is producing has scarred societies throughout the continent. Urban violence, once relatively rare, is on the rise, even in traditionally low-crime cities like Buenos Aires or Montevideo. In Peru, private security is one of the most robust and fastest-growing industries. Violent crime has seriously dampened tourism in such earthly paradises as Rio de Janeiro and Venezuela's sun-baked beaches. Colombia is, of course, the most extreme case, where drug barons, urban guerrillas and common criminals are wreaking havoc in a land once known for its splendid climate and cultural sophistication.
To be sure, democracy is now the norm in Latin America -- well, kind of. The continent's democractic institutions are finding it hard to resist the inroads of such charismatic leaders as Peru's Alberto Fujimori or Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Justice, arguably the most vital link in the institutional chain, is showing signs of weariness. For one reason or another, the human rights violators who flourished in the heyday of dictatorships are, in some cases literally getting away with murder in their home countries (hence the drive to try them elsewhere). The fight against corruption is faring little better. Although the usually free press trumpets one messy scandal after another, few corruption cases get past this initial report. Even Chile, the model country for many foreign investors, clamped down on a writer who criticised the functioning of the courts, compelling her to flee to Miami.
To top it all, 1999, the last year of the century, has been a singularly disappointing one as economic performance goes. The year opened with the collapse of the real, Brazil's currency, compounding the depressing impact of the Asian and Russian crises on the region. The fact is, for all the talk of "structural transformation", the region is still particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The continued weakness in the prices of international commodities, still a key export for most Latin American countries, has resulted in falling revenues and growing current account deficits. Add to this the increasing burden of climbing international interest rates and the picture looks unusually bleak for the debt-ridden economies of the region -- even for such high performers as Chile, which experienced its first real recession in a long time this year.
But all is not gloom and doom. One thing which has consistently struck this correspondent is the resilience of Latin Americans. Of course, one should not generalise too much, but those who insist on that old maxim are themselves wont to speak of corruption, violence and lack of civic consciousness as if they were peculiarly Latin American failings. The New World south of the Rio Grande has lots of problems, but it also has a dynamic culture based above all on the warmth and imagination of its inhabitants. Solidarity lives on, despite the onslaught of globalisation. A sense of togetherness which amazingly envelops even the recent immigrant, like this correspondent, makes it possible to withstand recession, inflation, pollution, and endless vicissitudes with stoicism and a touch of humour -- a humour that is a mixture of self-deprecation and jovial derision directed at those who think they have all the answers.
The fact remains that Latin Americans are a product of their past. Many are descended from Europeans who came in search of a better life; some from those who came a long time ago, seeking a mythical Eldorado. Like Colombus they discovered something quite different from what they were expecting: a new society created from the ruins of an old civilisation and immigrant dreams.
