Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 January 2000 Issue No. 463
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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Peace prospects in Lebanon

By Ranwa Yehia

The unanimous election of the for-er army commander Emile Lahoud as president of Lebanon in November 1998 set the stage for major developments in the country in 1999, developments which gave the country fresh hope and were largely foreshadowed by Lahoud's swearing-in speech in which he promised that in future all would be equal under the law.

The country, however, was in for an initial surprise with the sidelining of the then prime minister Rafik Hariri. Although questions had been raised prior to Lahoud's election concerning his relationship with Hariri, given the two men's wariness of each other, few were ready for the dramatic turn of events that followed.

Confident that his appointment would be confirmed, but wanting to test the level of Syrian support and his own influence, Hariri declined to take up the position of prime minister at the beginning of the year. His bluff was called, however, when Lahoud asked for a second round of voting in parliament, with the result that Salim Al-Hoss was appointed the new prime minister.

The beginning of the year saw the swift implementation of many of Lahoud's promises for administrative and political reform, starting with a crackdown on corruption. In this framework, the judiciary investigated a number of cases relating to the affairs of the former government.

The most spectacular of these came in March, when the former Oil Minister Shahe Barsoumian was detained on suspicion of having approved deals that had stripped the Treasury of more than $800 million.

The first minister in the country's history to have been detained on corruption charges, Barsoumian remains in custody after the refusal of 22 requests for bail, and an official indictment is expected in January. For those either questioned or indicted, as well as for their defenders and some outside observers, political considerations were behind at least some of the arrests, with disquiet being expressed over the judiciary's independence.

Meanwhile political violence did not disappear from Lebanon in 1999, nor did the newly prominent judiciary escape it. While busy with this crackdown on corruption, a heavy blow came in June when four judges were gunned down in Sidon inside the town's courthouse while a trial was in session.

The killers, armed with automatic weapons, were never caught, although official reports pointed to Palestinian activists from inside the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain Al-Hilweh near Sidon.

Shortly after the event the case was referred to the Judicial Council, the country's highest court whose sentences cannot be appealed, with State Prosecutor Adnan Addoum saying that "important pieces of information" had been gathered. Nevertheless, no details were announced, apparently confirming fears that the case might turn into a whitewash, like many of the other crimes that took place either during or after the Civil War.

The second half of the year saw attention shift to a lengthy debate on the country's electoral law, which was endorsed on December 22, thereby meeting Lahoud's request that the law be passed by end of the year.

Hariri and his parliamentary bloc, along with a handful of independent MPs, voted against the new law in parliament. However despite reiterated criticism of its alleged deficiencies, 81 MPs approved the new arrangements, with 17 opposing it and 4 abstaining.

The law's drafting remains something of a mystery, given the reservations of senior politicians.

Critics believe that the parliamentary elections, expected in June 2000, will not greatly change the country's political make-up, something which they put down to the character of the electoral law. Such criticisms have prompted the deputy prime minister Michel Murr, who pushed the new law through parliament, to rush to its defence and insist that it had not been tailored to benefit only a handful of politicians.

On the regional level, the resumption of peace talks between Israel and Syria constituted a major development, causing Lebanese officials to scurry in preparation for negotiations slated for the new year. While Lebanon has yet to announce its negotiating team, Hoss said that he would personally supervise the team, which will be headed by Murr, should need arise.

Throughout the year, the Lebanese continued to suffer from Israeli aggression, with almost daily air raids on villages in the south and western Bekaa Valley.

Beirut also had its share of attacks when Israel shelled two power stations and bridges linking the capital to the south in June.

The attack was regarded as a reminder of Israel's military power and also as a final blow struck by former Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu less than a week before his leaving office.

On 3 June, Israel and its allied militia completed their withdrawal from the Jezzine enclave after 17 years of occupation. The withdrawal was regarded as an important indication of Israel's realisation that its occupation of Lebanon was no longer viable.

Although the liberation of the village of Arnoun by hundreds of Lebanese students in February did not have great significance regarding the Israeli occupation as a whole, it nevertheless created a sensation. Israeli forces however reoccupied the village in April, cordoning off the few remaining residents and setting up a South Lebanon Army militia checkpoint at its outskirts.

From September on Israel changed its tactics in Lebanon, with Israeli soldiers being ordered to sit in bunkers and attacks being carried out by air. Designed to ensure a reduction in Israeli casualties, the Israeli death toll in the south for 1999 was 12, the lowest for several years.

One of the key questions which will remain to be seen in 2000 is whether Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak will meet his promise of withdrawing from the south by July. After talks started with Syria, Israeli reports said Barak was even thinking of pulling out earlier that this deadline. The withdrawal arrangements, the future of Hizbullah and the presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon are also complicated questions which are expected to arise in the first year of the new century.

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