 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 13 - 19 January 2000 Issue No. 464 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 13 - 19 January 2000 Issue No. 464
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Heritage Special Books Profile Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Can Ebeid deliver?
By Gamal Essam El-DinThree weeks ago, the People's Assembly began its annual marathon debate on the government's policy statement delivered by Prime Minister Atef Ebeid on 18 December. As many as 350 majority and opposition deputies are expected to take the floor in the next few weeks to discuss a report prepared by a special committee in response to Ebeid's statement.
In the meantime, the policy statement has drawn mixed reaction from political and economic circles. The majority of analysts agree that the statement, the first to be delivered by Ebeid since taking office in October, was surprising, to say the least. It was primarily designed, they say, to convey the message that the incumbent cabinet was not what some of the opposition claimed it to be: a privatisation cabinet closely allied to big business interests and contemptible of labour and the poor. Rather, the new cabinet seemed to have gone out of its way to prove its socially-conscious credentials.
Nevertheless, it was the leftist opposition, represented by the Tagammu and Nasserist parties, which were the first to level criticism against Ebeid's statement. Khaled Mohieddin, leader of the Tagammu Party, said the social welfare promises contained in the statement are noble but difficult to achieve. "It is clear that Ebeid took advantage of the policy statement to reject the charge that his government was mainly appointed to cater to the needs of businessmen and sell off public assets. He offered very ambitious promises to address social inequalities and achieve high economic growth but they are quite hard to realise."
Mohieddin cited the statement's aim of raising the annual growth rate to seven per cent. "As is widely agreed, this requires that the flow of investments accounts for 35 per cent of GNP," Mohieddin said. "The volume of investments currently stands at a mere 19 per cent of GNP," he added.
Other leftist analysts noted that Ebeid dropped any mention of privatisation and businessmen. "The statement was filled with social care promises but did not contain a single word about privatisation and businessmen," Ibrahim El-Issawi, an economist with the Tagammu Party, said. "It did not explain how these promises will become reality," El-Issawi said. "It is quite daring to announce that the government will create 650,000 job opportunities every year without mentioning how and at what cost."
Mindful of the criticism, Ebeid emphasised, in a series of press interviews, that the government had a detailed programme by which it will keep its promises. He said the statement's social welfare costs will amount to LE5 billion. It is estimated, he added, that the proposed monthly LE50 pension for destitute families will cost LE2.4 billion. "One million families which do not have a breadwinner will be eligible to receive the pension," Ebeid said. According to the premier, the government will pay LE1 billion to depositors with the so-called Money Investment Companies (MIC), while an additional LE1.6 billion will be allocated to creating 650,000 jobs in various sectors.
Leftist economic analysts expressed fears that the proceeds of the privatisation sales will be used to fund Ebeid's social pledges. Ebeid, however, said that rationalising expenditures and boosting production in the oil sector will generate LE6.7 billion in annual revenue, up from LE1.1 billion last year. "We will use part of this to fund our social care projects while the Social Development Fund will contribute to creating 150,000 jobs in the form of helping young university graduates establish small-scale enterprises," he said. He added that additional jobs, estimated at 500,000, will also be created in government ministries and authorities.
Pessimists in the leftist camp noted, however, that Ebeid's plan to create a large number of jobs for young graduates ran counter to his privatisation policies which, among other things, aim at cutting down the size of the labour force in public industrial companies and government agencies and ministries. Ebeid argued that plans for the new jobs are based on real needs. "Expansion is under way in such vital sectors as education and health. We must recruit new university graduates to fill the new posts in these sectors." As such, the prime minister said that by the end of February, 150,000 graduates would have been appointed.
Milad Hanna, a prominent housing expert, described the language of Ebeid's 21-point statement as "very rosy", and described plans for a monthly LE50 pension to the poor, which Ebeid promised will be raised to LE100 per month, as a brilliant step. "I feel very optimistic," Hanna said. "It's a good start for Ebeid's government because the number of those living under the poverty line has been increasing. The pension will unquestionably help redress social inequality and offer guaranteed protection to the under-privileged classes." He also praised Ebeid's pledges that liberalisation and privatisation will not be at the expense of the poor.
But Hanna was under no illusion about the uphill task the government faced, not only in the funding aspect but also in Ebeid's vow that his government was keen to conduct a dialogue with the opposition and show greater respect to transparency-seekers and fact-finders. "It's really good talk but the fact remains that all previous governments have failed to honour such commitments," said Hanna.
Yassin Seraggeddin, leader of the Wafdist parliamentarians, said Ebeid's statement completely ignored political reform. "The statement claimed that the government is keen to cooperate with the opposition in order to reach some sort of consensus on some major national issues," Seraggeddin noted. "This talk is evasive. President Mubarak has promised that the best ways will be sought to ensure that the next parliamentary elections are marked with integrity. Ebeid failed to say how his government will cooperate with the opposition to realise this goal," said Seraggeddin.
As Seraggeddin sees it, the Wafd Party in general viewed Ebeid's statement as aimed primarily at serving the interests of the ruling National Democratic Party's deputies ahead of November elections. "From now until the elections, Ebeid and NDP officials will want to pull the rug from under the opposition's feet and create the impression that they are working mainly to serve the poorer classes," said Seraggeddin.
