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Al-Ahram Weekly 13 - 19 January 2000 Issue No. 464 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 13 - 19 January 2000 Issue No. 464
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Heritage Special Books Profile Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The tide is turning?
By Abdel-Malek Khalil
Earlier in the week, Chechen fighters in the breakaway republic of Chechnya launched an all-out assault against Russian troops. Chechen fighters retook parts of the Chechen capital, Grozny, in what appears to be their most daring counter-offensive since Russia began its intensive military campaign to subdue the separatists last September.
As the Russian ground assault on Grozny remained suspended for the third day in a row, Chechen forces launched a hit-and-run raid on the strategic town of Shali on Sunday. The suspension comes in the wake of heavy Russian casualties; Moscow admitted that it lost 84 soldiers in the 10-day battle for the capital. Moscow hastily explained the suspension of ground attacks by claiming it gives civilians a chance to flee the war-torn zone, but analysts predict that Russia may be using the pause as a smoke screen to launch an even more furious attack.
A large contingent of Russian armour arrived earlier in Shali to assist the embattled Russian army, nevertheless fierce fighting continued, reported Movladi Udugov, a spokesman for Chechnya's military command. The successful Chechen raid in Shali confirms the Russians' slipping hold over the breakaway republic. Last week rebels claimed they had seized a number of villages southwest of Grozny; a senior Russian commander grudgingly conceded the loss of the village of Alkhan-Yurt to the Chechen resistance.
Soon after their military campaign began last September, the Russians took quick control of Chechnya's northern lowlands, leaving the southern uplands largely in the hands of Chechen militant Islamists. The mountainous terrain favours the hit-and-run tactics of the Chechen guerrilla fighters. Russian federal forces have kept up an intense air and artillery attack on Grozny, but the Chechen forces in the capital appear to be immune to the Russian assault.
Over the weekend, dense fog descended on Chechnya, reducing visibility to a minimum and making it impossible for the Russians to aim properly at their targets with any accuracy. Fog, and the wintry weather, has worked against the Russian military offensive. Chechen commanders took to their mountain strongholds and under the cover of darkness slipped into Russian-held towns and villages wreaking havoc on the unsuspecting Russian troops.
When Russian troops withdrew at the end of the 1994-96 war, Chechnya had de facto independence -- though neither Russia nor any other country recognised the claim. Russian forces had been careful not to repeat the disastrous frontal attacks they made in the 1994-96 war, when they suffered huge losses. In the current Chechen campaign, Russian federal forces have bombarded Grozny with artillery and jets for months, making probing ground attacks. This new strategy worked well until the onset of extremely cold weather.
Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin nevertheless predicts that the battle over Chechnya will be won in the near future and has proclaimed a swift victory for the Russian troops. Putin's seemingly resolute handling of the conflict makes him a clear favourite in the upcoming 26 March elections for the presidency.
Akhmen Basnukayev, a Chechen field commander, and other Chechen leaders told foreign reporters that the Russian forces are utterly demoralised -- having suffered heavy material and human losses, and that the Chechens are staging sustained and successful counter-attacks to recapture towns and villages occupied by Russian troops.
