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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 Jan. - 2 Feb. 2000 Issue No. 466 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 Jan. - 2 Feb. 2000 Issue No. 466
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Surface stalling
By Salama Ahmed Salama
The US, and certain Arab circles, agree almost unanimously that Syria and Israel are about to resume talks very soon. The same people believe that the chances for reaching an agreement are greater today than seemed possible only recently, differences between the parties being what they are, and given the postponement of the round of talks scheduled for last week.
American sources informed of the events that preceded and followed the three open rounds of negotiations contend that the gap between the two parties has grown considerably narrower. The only issue still to be settled, they say, is the nature of bilateral relations in the future, particularly in terms of certain details which the Syrians have focused on in order to give this track a character of its own, and to discourage any comparison with other tracks -- i.e., Egypt and Jordan.
When asked about the significance of Mubarak's visit to Syria to meet President Hafez Al-Assad, and whether Syria was able to draw lessons from Egypt's experience in negotiating with the Israelis, a Syrian commentator asserted that Syria had planned a strategy of its own, and was determined to follow the course it had mapped out. Syrian negotiators, he said, had chosen their own methods and tools, and saw no need to imitate others.
Perhaps, then, the break-off in talks on the surface does not necessarily imply that negotiations at the level of committees and experts are not on-going, or that secret talks have not continued between the two parties. There seems to be some link between the Israelis' determination to withdraw from the Golan Heights, on one hand, and the water agreement, on the other. Israel is eager for guarantees that it will obtain water resources in return for its withdrawal to the 4 June lines, in accordance with Syria's demand.
Some say Syria has been promised that negotiations with Israel will not last long, and that the agreement, including arrangements for Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon, will be in place before September or October.
In examining such predictions, which several observers consider foregone conclusions, we need only review the Palestinian track, where agreements concluded in Oslo, Wye and Sharm Al-Sheikh were deliberately postponed, cancelled, or violated. This is enough to prove that many of the assurances are worth no more than the ink they are written in, and should not be relied on, not even by the Syrians. In his most recent meeting with Clinton, Arafat failed to persuade the US to intervene and urge Israel to reach a framework agreement which would determine the broad lines of the final status arrangements, or to implement its commitments under the Sharm Al-Sheikh accord regarding withdrawal and the release of Palestinian prisoners. Arafat got sympathy, but nothing else.
Under such conditions, Egypt's urgent call for an Arab summit seems like a very wise move. The remaining period of Clinton's term in office is not enough to conclude an agreement in the real sense of the term -- not an agreement that is no better than an "advance payment" and can be denied or violated on a whim. The agreements to be reached will not be guaranteed. Barak's method of pitting one negotiating track against another has gained the Arabs international pity, but not the support we desperately need. Without the US, Europe's hands are tied. Therefore, if nothing happens until September, the situation will be frozen for another year. This, of course, is in no one's interest -- except Israel's, that is.
