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Al-Ahram Weekly 3 - 9 February 2000 Issue No. 467 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 3 - 9 February 2000 Issue No. 467
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Special Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Between acts
By Nevine KhalilOne of the most thought-provoking discussions at the Book Fair this week addressed Egypt's post-peace process role. At a time when Syria has re-engaged in talks with the Israelis, and as the Palestinian track is entering final status negotiations -- on 13 February -- Presidential Chief Adviser Osama El-Baz told an audience of around 400 on Saturday that it would be a "mistake to expect Egypt's role to diminish post-peace".
Baz believes that the peace process should be concluded within the next 12 months. To guarantee continuing influence Cairo must carve out a role by ensuring "domestic and regional stability, as well as developing all its potentials and resources, including its military capabilities".
Military strength, he insisted, "still counts towards [a country's] leadership capabilities," and that a militarily strong Egypt is important not only in terms of ensuring the country's own security, but in guaranteeing Arab national security.
"Egypt must serve, with other Arab countries, as a cornerstone in protecting the region, undercutting any attempts at foreign interference in the domestic affairs of Arab countries," Baz said.
Quizzing Baz were Al-Ahram International Chief Editor Salaheddin Hafez and political science professor Hassan Nafaa.
Hafez warned that Egypt will be targeted by Israel and attempts made to undermine Egypt's position if it assumes any leadership role after a peace settlement on the Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese tracks is reached. Hafez believes that Egypt's role will be increasingly marginalised, although attempts to "tamper with Egypt's social fabric through invoking sectarian strife and instability" have so far been unsuccessful. He urged the formulation of a "common national ideology" on which to base "a modern model of Egypt which can withstand marginalisation".
Baz partially agreed that throughout recent history attempts have been made to undercut Cairo's regional and international role. He explained that it was common practice among industrialised countries to undercut the potential of Third World countries to maintain a status quo favouring the former.
"There are ongoing attempts to marginalise those developing countries that are ambitious, strong and have potential," he said. At the same time, Baz believes there is still time for developing countries to find a niche. The emerging world order, he believes, is still in a transitional phase. We are witnessing, he believes, "the chaos which precedes the birth of a just and balanced order".
But Baz disagreed with Hafez's underlying argument that Egypt should be on the defensive. "We should first discuss what we envision as Egypt's role, and then address what forces are working to marginalise it," Baz said. "If some countries challenge us, then we must confront them."
According to the veteran diplomat Egypt's future role will be dependent on "a clear common vision of [that] role in the Arab, African, Middle Eastern, South and international arenas" and on "a regime capable of fulfilling this role, because ambition is not enough".
The presidential adviser listed Egypt's advantages in assuming a leading role post peace. It has, he said, "domestic strength, an intact social fabric, much human resource potential, the ability to integrate new technology into society, military strength and historic cultural influence".
Baz believes that Egypt's manoeuverability and potential will not decrease once a peace settlement is reached, but rather "magnify". "Egypt's primary role is not as a mediator or facilitator in the peace process, but as a pioneer in the region, in the South, and in the non-aligned movement," he said. "Without Egypt there would be a vacuum."
Nafaa partially disagreed, saying that Egypt's leading role "cannot be inherited", but rather depends on its domestic stability, understanding of international and regional changes, as well as the potential, will and vision of the regime. "Egypt's leading and pioneering role over the past decades will undergo enormous challenges after peace," he said. Nafaa believes that Israel could dominate the region "not because of its superiority, but because of Arab weakness and ineffectiveness".
Hafez agreed that the only real challenger to Egypt's leading role in the region will be Israel, "not Iran or Turkey or any Arab country".
"Israel will focus on undercutting Egypt's potential after the Arab-Israeli conflict is resolved," he stressed. Hafez also questioned the probability of Arabs gathering around a single cause once the Palestinian issue is settled. He stretched the argument further, suggesting that Palestine was "the only reason they came together and created the Arab League in 1945" and that maybe now it has lost its raison d'être. To avoid such disintegration in the Arab world after the peace settlement, "we will need to rebuild the Arab house from scratch, not only put it in order".
Baz countered that it is Israel that will be weakened after a peace settlement. "Israel's domestic solidity will melt after the peace because they will no longer congregate around one cause," he argued. "As a society, they have less in common with each other than the Arabs do amongst themselves."
At the same time Baz believes that once the Arab-Israeli conflict is resolved Cairo should play an instrumental role in securing Arab reconciliation and solidarity. "The Arab world, especially the younger generation, will gather around a unified Arab vision," he said. And this would serve as protection against attacks on Arab countries, shield against "suspect" military alliances against the Arabs and open the door for making the Middle East a nuclear-free zone.
"For example, we will be able to look more closely into the military alliance between Turkey and Israel, and also require Israel to dismantle its nuclear arsenal". He said a strategic balance would be struck and kept, "reining in Israel's notions of expansionism and supremacy". To ensure this, he emphasised, the Arab world "must be united, effective, and focused on economic prosperity through a common Arab market".
Baz also believes that while relations will grow closer between Israel and the Arab countries post-peace, "the normalisation process will not necessarily happen immediately because Arab countries realise the dangers of Israel assuming supremacy over them". Arab countries are likely to follow Egypt's example in this area, "basically having peaceful relations with Tel-Aviv but not allowing Israel to penetrate Egyptian society or limit manoeuverability in the international arena".
