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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 February 2000 Issue No. 469 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 February 2000 Issue No. 469
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Focus Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Lebanon holds its breath
By Ranwa YehiaWhile Hizbullah operations continued in the occupied zone in south Lebanon despite Israeli threats to retaliate, tension in Beirut over a possible aggression on the capital or on the country's infrastructure has momentarily, albeit cautiously, eased.
Hizbullah's killing of an Israeli soldier on Friday during an operation within the occupied zone of south Lebanon, an action that fell within the terms of the 1996 April Understanding, had increased fears in Beirut that Israel might retaliate again in full force. The April Understanding, reached after one of Israel's aggressions on Lebanon, bans attacks on civilian targets but gives Lebanon the right to resist occupation in Israel's self-proclaimed "security zone" in south Lebanon.
With the number of Israeli soldiers killed this year by Hizbullah operations rising to seven, the heavy toll might push Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to withdraw from the occupied zone earlier than his promised deadline of July 2000.
An immediate repercussion of the latest death of an Israeli soldier was the walkout by Israeli delegates to the April Understanding's Monitoring Group from a meeting planned to discuss Lebanese and Israeli complaints about adherence to the terms of the understanding. The group is made up of representatives of Lebanon, Syria, Israel, the United States and France.
A senior security source said the Israeli walkout from the meeting was not spontaneous, but a course of action that had been decided on prior to the meeting in the event of further casualties in south Lebanon.
The source said it was unlikely that Barak would resort to another attack on Lebanese infrastructure because that would mean he would have to order residents of the northern Galilee back into bomb shelters -- an unwelcome prospect for residents who spent three days in shelters last week -- in case Hizbullah responded with Katyusha rockets.
"However, by refraining [from retaliation], Barak would risk losing credibility particularly after several Israeli Cabinet members voiced threats of severe retaliation," the source said.
Lebanese Prime Minister Salim Al-Hoss on Saturday contacted Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa to discuss the Israeli delegation's walkout from the Monitoring Group.
Both men were reported to have expressed dismay about statements issued by US officials and journalists that portrayed the Lebanese as aggressors rather than victims.
Al-Hoss also contacted Secretary-General of the Arab League Esmat Abdel-Meguid who told him that "whatever afflicted Lebanon afflicted all Arabs". Abdel-Meguid also called Lebanese President Emile Lahoud on Saturday to express his full support for Lebanon.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on Sunday that Israel could not, and had no right to make any amendments to the April Understanding, adding that it was obvious that the goal of its latest attack on power stations in the country was to stop the resistance.
Statements by Israeli officials of a possible withdrawal from Lebanon before July increased, with Barak saying that Israeli troops would withdraw even earlier although not before April.
In a front-page editorial in Saturday's issue of the leading Lebanese daily An-Nahar, regional editor Sahar Baasiri wrote that the recent Israeli attacks on Lebanon's power stations and the continued Hizbullah operations indicated that the struggle had entered a new stage.
"It is no longer enough to say that Syria and Israel are exerting pressure through escalation [of armed conflict] in Lebanon to increase the chances of better conditions for the resumption of the stalled peace talks," Baasiri said.
She added that, by striking Lebanese infrastructure, Israel aims at creating a new formula through which it would either unilaterally withdraw from south Lebanon or at least change the peace talks' agenda so that halting Hizbullah activities would be made a priority.
Lebanese political analyst Nizar Hamzeh told Al-Ahram Weekly that heightened tensions concerning a possible military assault on Lebanon will continue until July, the date which Barak set during his election campaign last year for withdrawal from the occupied zone in south Lebanon regardless of whether a peace deal with Syria is achieved.
"We are facing a 'war season'. The situation could escalate at any moment," Hamzeh said.
The continued deadlock in peace talks between Syria and Israel, Hamzeh added, gives Hizbullah more room to stage operations against Israeli targets.
Hamzeh described the recent Israeli attack on three power stations in Lebanon as a low-key warning.
"Israel intentionally did not cripple Lebanon completely. Instead of destroying main power [generating] stations in the country, it destroyed power distribution stations," he said.
This, Hamzeh said, is Barak's way of saying that all options are still open, whether through the routine Israeli air raids on Hizbullah hideouts in south Lebanon to targeting the country's infrastructure.
"It's really an unpredictable situation on a military level. It is also a kind of deadly game for Lebanon," he added.
Hamzeh also touched on another point that is likely to be discussed widely in Lebanon: the way the Lebanese government is pursuing its case on a diplomatic level. On Sunday, Berri made a veiled criticism of the failure of the Lebanese government to act effectively on the diplomatic level, insinuating that the former government had done a better job.
Hamzeh believes that while this assessment might be accurate, it does not leave an impact on the developments that might occur on the military level. "In any case, a war might ultimately be the only way to [push the various parties to] resume peace talks," he said.
