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Al-Ahram Weekly 24 Feb. - 1 March 2000 Issue No. 470 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 24 Feb. - 1 March 2000 Issue No. 470
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Focus Heritage Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Reformists sweep poll
By Azadeh MoaveniWhile the results of Iran's parliamentary election might have put a chill in the hearts of defeated right-wingers, the vote itself has been a remarkably sound affair. For the first time since the revolutionary excesses of the 1980s turned government into a dirty word, "politics" has crept back into the Iranian scene, largely stripped of insidiousness and imbued with a fresh sense of possibility.
Families descended on polling stations together, clutching candidate lists they had debated and drawn up at home. The country's fledgling political dynasties closed ranks and gathered together to wait for results to be announced. The leftist cleric Abdullah Nouri, imprisoned three months ago for crimes of opinion, arrived at home for a three-day reprieve from prison. Grandchildren scurried about the house, and his brother Ali Reza, a candidate from Tehran, held court in the reception area of the house. President Muhammad Khatami's brother Reza led the race in Tehran. Jamileh Kadivar, the sister of another imprisoned, leftist cleric (Mohsen Kadivar), followed a close second. Have Iranian politics not only returned to normal, but turned into a family affair?
On the face of things, yes. Although violence broke out in two districts over the local results, the landslide reformist victory shows that support for reformist ways of thinking have been transformed into tangible electoral gains. Estimated results for all districts outside of Tehran suggest that reformists won 72 per cent of the vote within the context of a record turnout of 83 per cent of eligible voters.
Out of the 260 seats in the provinces, 50 seats will be determined in the second round run-offs, 104 went to reformists, 40 to conservatives, and the remaining to independents.
The closely-watched results in Tehran have been particularly telling: state radio announced reformist candidates sweeping 29 of the 30 spots in the city, while former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani struggled to even make the cut for the first round. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, the official media had not released a tally, but strategists in the reform camp and the Interior Ministry said on Monday that an absolute majority is already assured.
Having marshalled much of the electorate into voting, the reformists' next task is to use their newfound legislative prowess to back up the president's reforms, largely stalled to date by an uncooperative, conservative-dominated parliament. The reformists have pledged, for example, to undo the restrictive press laws that make publishers and journalists vulnerable to legal sanctions for criticising the clerical establishment. Tehran candidate and a key reform strategist Ahmed Bourghani suggests the whole judicial system could use an overhaul. "We need to define the parliament's role as a law-making body," he says. As things stand now, a number of government bodies like the Expediency Council, which reviews legislation passed by parliament, can wield effective legislative power through their undefined mandates. To the same end, incumbent member of parliament Mohsen Mirdamadi says parliament can use its own powers of approval to screen the non-clerical candidates for the powerful Guardians Council, which reviews candidate lists for elections. The existence of the ultra-sensitive special clerical courts, he says, can also be re-evaluated.
Khatami has charted the course of his presidency with the support of the Supreme Guide Ali Khameinei, and he does not seem determined to strike a radically independent course with the parliament at his side. Bourghani says the greatest threat to the reform movement would be posed by moving too quickly. At this juncture, the results of the election show the majority of right-wing clergy must have felt willing to concede some of their power to stay in the game; with fewer clerics than ever on the ballot, reformists want to keep the right-wing from balking at the consequences.
Policemen ride along central Tehran with their motorcycles decorated with the portraits of Ayatollah Khomeini (photo:AP)
The president will also need to lead the parliament in the peculiar task of building a political opposition. Mirdamadi says the parliament can nurture the growth of political parties both financially and "spiritually," and Ali Reza Nouri says in parliament he will work to secure the release of political prisoners like his brother and Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, the regime's arch-nemesis who is sequestered in Qom. "Montazeri could become another Khomeini for the Islamic Republic," says leftist cleric Yusefi Eshkevari. If reformists can manage to absorb him back into politics -- defining themselves who can be a political "insider" -- they will have come to grips with the political impasse that has brought the government to crisis in the first place: the refusal of the right-wing clergy to countenance any challenge to the powers of the supreme leader.
Naming the speaker of the sixth parliament may prove a struggle. The reform coalition has not agreed on who it will nominate, and there is an official consensus that they will not consider Reza Khatami, even if he comes in first in Tehran as expected. The position of the speaker originally seemed slated for Rafsanjani, but the former president's virtual political trouncing at the polls portends not only his own professional decline but also dooms the right-wing's chance of having a speaker it can manipulate.
Prepared for any possibility, the reform camp has been downplaying the centrality of the position. "The speaker is the parliament's spokesperson not its head," insists Nouri, as a who's who of the reform movement floats through his brother's living room, paying its respects. The young Nouri greeted reports of his spectacular progress humbly: "My votes are a bouquet of flowers for cell 11, row 320 in the special clerical section of Evin prison," he said referring to where his brother Abdullah is incarcerated.
In his auspiciously timed furlough from prison, Abdullah Nouri says the result will affect US-Iran relations, and his brother says he will push for a referendum on the question. The question of upgrading relations, although welcomed by many, is scarcely up to the reformists, who do not have ultimate control over foreign policy anyway. It is issues such as this that revive doubts over how much of difference a reform-minded parliament can make. Some close to the president warn against unrealistic expectations: removing obstacles should be seen as an accomplishment in its own right.
But Khatami's main constituency is young, restless and not inclined toward patience with a president they increasingly view as the least-offensive face of an entrenched establishment. His reformist cohorts promise the remaining 16 months of the president's tenure will witness more change than the past three years, but at a pace likely to be slow. Mirdamadi warns that change should be assessed on a case-by-case basis, as press laws, for example, could be reformed in a month while the clerical court system could turn into a pitched battle.
Western analysts are mostly talking about this election as a litmus for the democratic potential of political Islam. Iranians see the critical question a bit less crudely: can a modern democratic government emerge from the machinery of an unresponsive, authoritarian regime?
The Kamran family in southern Tehran has its doubts, but it cared enough to prepare its list well in advance. Having cast their votes in the local mosque, they told this correspondent that besides the 1997 presidential election, this was only the second time they had bothered to vote. "We had all but two names in common," said their son. "But we agreed to disagree. It was more in keeping with the democratic mood."
