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Al-Ahram Weekly 16 - 22 March 2000 Issue No. 473 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 16 - 22 March 2000 Issue No. 473
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Special Focus Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Dangling the oil carrot
By Salah HemeidUS Vice President Al Gore, now the sole Democratic Party candidate in November's presidential elections, had a little surprise last week while campaigning in Detroit. A young Iraqi-American asked him what he would do about Iraq if he becomes president. Gore, who was derided for "nibbling around the edges" in his campaign speeches by Bill Bradley, a former contender for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, answered that if he is elected he "will move heaven and earth to bring an end to the suffering [of the Iraqi people]; it has gone too long."
Regardless of concern about the devastating conditions in Iraq caused by the long-standing UN economic sanctions, the Iraqi regime's oppression or Gore's pompous speeches, Iraq has already become a major issue in America's domestic politics.
Central to questions about what to do with Saddam Hussein's regime after 10 years of sanctions on Iraq is the ultimate goal of US policy toward the Gulf country. Should this be to divest Iraq of its non-conventional weapons, or to overthrow the government in Baghdad?
Some people, including congressmen, recently argued that the sanctions have already taken too long to impact on the Iraqi regime and that the time has come to ease them and end the miserable plight of the country's 22 million people. In response to increasing criticism, US President Bill Clinton said his administration will explore ways to relieve the sufferings of the Iraqi people that will not help Hussein's regime rebuild its weapons arsenal.
The bottom line in US policy still seems to be the return of the UN weapons inspectors to Iraq and using the Security Council's resolutions to prevent its rearmament. Despite talk about considering ways to ease restrictions on the import of machinery, spare parts used in the oil industry, pesticides and products necessary for the health and welfare of ordinary Iraqis, there are no real signs from the UN Sanctions Committee that Washington is easing its hard-line position on Iraq.
With the presidential elections looming on the horizon, President Clinton will likely avoid making a major shift in policy towards Iraq that would lead to a confrontation with Hussein or that might influence Gore's campaign. To maintain the status quo, Clinton will probably keep the embargo in place, continue launching air strikes and assisting exiled opposition groups.
Meanwhile, the United States is under growing international pressure to change its Iraq policy and support the lifting of economic sanctions. As demonstrated in recent Security Council debates, the United States is having an increasing difficulty in mustering support for its stance toward the Gulf country.
Many of the United States' allies in the region see its present policy as being not only futile but dangerous too; once it collapses, the Iraqi regime will be able not only to rearm but to make all those who have supported the American position pay for their policies.
Hussein is probably monitoring the American presidential elections carefully, watching for an opportunity to pressure Clinton and his successor to change policy toward his country. With prices of crude oil surging to nearly $32 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline at $1.5 or more in the United States, Hussein may be looking to the oil market as the route through which to try to influence American policy.
According to US oil market analysts, retail gasoline prices are poised to increase to $2 a gallon in the coming few months -- regardless of the outcome of the OPEC ministers meeting on 27 March in Vienna. High oil prices are expected to have an adverse affect on US economic growth as inflation rises, making life difficult for millions of Americans. But will the Iraqi president be able to take advantage of the turmoil in the oil market and influence US policy-making? Not only is the answer probably in the affirmative, but it seems that he is already working at it.
Iraq's strategy seems to be based on the premise that if it is allowed free access to the oil market and provided with technology needed to upgrade production it will pump enough oil to stabilise the market. Therefore, Iraqi officials have been threatening to decrease production, citing the UN's delay in releasing the $600 million that it requested for modernising its oil industry. The message that Iraq is trying to communicate to the American public is that lifting the sanctions will pour more oil into their market and make life easier. However, US Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson said Washington is not interested in Iraq's moves. "We are not going to lift the sanctions based on that [keeping world oil prices low]. If Iraq plays around with the markets, Saudi Arabia will take steps to mitigate that," he said last Thursday.
By trying to show the American public that Iraq still matters especially where it hurts most -- the economy -- Hussein seems to be pursuing a strategy that targets the American public as the decisive factor in getting sanctions lifted. With the dispute over allowing UN weapons inspectors to return to Baghdad yet to be resolved, both Baghdad and Washington seem poised to take strategic decisions.
