Al-Ahram Weekly 23 - 29 March 2000 Issue No. 474
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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Prioritising peace

By Dina Ezzat

As the drive for a comprehensive peace settlement in the Middle East looms into focus, Egypt and the US are disagreeing less about the details of the various regional crises that once constituted the bulk of their differences. Their varying views seem to revolve now, more than anything else, around the final nature of the Middle East settlement and the post-settlement scenario. This does not only include Israel and its immediate Arab neighbours, but the entire Middle East and North African region as well.

Strategic consultations between Foreign Minister Amr Moussa and US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, to be held in Washington today, will primarily focus on this issue. Further talks will take place at the White House on 28 March between President Hosni Mubarak and US President Bill Clinton.

Of the once crowded list of differences in Egyptian-US views on the Middle East, matters that were once points of serious contention have markedly softened in recent months, making this an auspicious time for Mubarak's visit this month. Sudan, Libya, Iraq and Iran are now shifting away from the spectrum of Egyptian-US friction.

Serious disagreement over the joint Egyptian-Libyan initiative for peace in Sudan could eventually edge out of the limelight as Washington slowly moves toward an understanding of Egypt's unavoidable involvement in Sudan. "We had a good solid discussion on Sudan and we have a good understanding of each other's positions," commented US Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Edward Walker in a telephone interview with Al-Ahram Weekly.

Libya could also end up scratched off the list of regional Egypt-US disagreements. The US administration and Congress have begun to listen more to US interest groups, particularly businesses that want to go back to Libya to invest in oil and infrastructure.

High-level meetings between Mubarak and Clinton (and, right, Mubarak with US Vice-President Al Gore) have been a well established feature of Egyptian-American relations

The US intends to send a counselling security team to Libya in the near future to help Washington determine if it should allow Americans to travel to Libya. Walker said that the US has been encouraged by Libya's recent positive attitude, which could eventually lead to the full removal of currently suspended UN sanctions. Egypt has been encouraging the US to help the UN Security Council move toward a total lifting of sanctions on Libya.

Even Iraq, once a cause of significant dissension, could eventually become a less volatile issue. Egyptian diplomats say they have noticed a shift in tone by the Americans on the issue of Iraq. The two US presidential candidates are speaking about Iraq in a way that suggests a less intransigent attitude.

On Iraq, Walker says, "I am afraid that we have no confidence in Saddam, who has lied to everybody. ... We don't see any prospect with this individual." However, he said that the US is very sympathetic to the suffering of the Iraqi people and would like to work to relieve this suffering.

Iran, once the subject of strong US reservations, is now hearing apologies from Secretary of State Albright about past American policies on Tehran.

"We want to open a new chapter with Iran," she said. This does not exclude encouraging Iran's Arab neighbours to follow suit -- particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council, who have yet to settle a row with Iran on three disputed islands between Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Says Walker: "The past six months have seen a marked improvement in our relations that is better than it has been in a long time."

This is no overstatement according to an Egyptian diplomatic source. "It is true that much progress has been achieved on these fronts."

On the peace process, Walker claimed that the two countries see almost eye to eye, making Mubarak's summit with Clinton "a perfect opportunity" to review the latest developments. The summit will be convened within only days of Clinton's meeting with Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad in Geneva, and a few days after the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli talks in the US.

But future points at issue could be more complicated: the nature of the final settlement for the Arab-Israeli conflict; the security arrangements that will come with that peace; the status of regional disarmament (particularly as regards Israel's nuclear arsenal); and the shape and scope of Egypt's regional role in a post-settlement Arab world.

"We must build a regional security regime -- based on the principle of equal rights and obligations -- which is aimed at achieving military balance and equal security at the lowest level of armament," asserted Foreign Minister Moussa in an address to the San Francisco Commonwealth Club yesterday.

In a speech to the World Affairs Council in Los Angeles earlier this week, Moussa affirmed that the US and Egypt are on the same track with regard to Middle Eastern objectives. "We share the same vision of transforming the Middle East into a stable, peaceful and vibrant partner in the global economy," he said.

However, Moussa strongly suggested that future common objectives do not necessarily translate into a shared view of the nature of this future. Egypt's vision of a better future for the Middle East upholds its own premise of a "comprehensive and fair peace," says Moussa. "No other option is viable."

The definition of "fair" is something that Cairo and Washington do disagree on. "If a total and overall peace settlement is not reached before Clinton leaves the White House, it will continue to be an area of discussion between us and American officials in the next administration," said an Egyptian official.

Reaching an agreement on the future of the region, particularly in a post-peace scenario, is something that Cairo knows will pose a serious challenge in its relations with the US -- whether Al Gore or George W Bush ends up in the White House in January 2001.

"The Americans see things from the viewpoint of the one and only superpower who has been able to dictate its will in various parts of the world, and with several [other] considerable world powers," commented one senior Egyptian diplomatic source. "We see ourselves as a leading power in this region, where our interests are clear and we cannot compromise. So we refuse to be ignored or bypassed."

He added, "Egypt will definitely have a role to play in a post-peace Middle East. This role will be central and we will not settle for otherwise."

This issue is, in the view of many diplomatic sources, the focus of the current intensive Egyptian-US consultations, which began with a visit by Moussa to the US West Coast and will culminate with the Mubarak-Clinton summit.

Building a new Egyptian-US partnership is a priority for Egyptian diplomacy. "We want this partnership to be based on greater understanding, even if we are going to have more differences," commented an Egyptian official.

In the words of Ahmed Maher, Egypt's former ambassador to Washington, "This presidential trip, although it coincides with an outgoing US administration, is very important in order to engage in a useful dialogue -- not only with US officials, but also with Congress members from both the Democratic and Republican parties." He added, "It is also an opportunity for Egypt to address the 'Arab lobby' in the US, which is still very much in the making."

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