 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 30 March - 5 April 2000 Issue No. 475 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 30 March - 5 April 2000 Issue No. 475
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Special Focus Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Voter volatility and Arab Americans
By James Zogby
After a total of $250 million was spent in the United States primary elections, the results are now in. Republicans and Democrats have chosen their nominees to run for the presidency. The story, however, is far from over, since there are strong signs of voter uneasiness lurking beneath the surface of American politics.
This is not a new phenomenon. It is the same reason that half of those eligible to vote did not cast ballots in recent presidential elections. It is the reason that billionaire Ross Perot, running as an independent in 1996, garnered almost 20 per cent of the total vote. It is the same phenomenon that accounts for the victory of a professional wrestler, Jesse Ventura, over the major party candidates for the governorship of Minnesota. And it is this same alienation that helped maverick Senator John McCain win so many votes and media attention in this year's Republican primary elections.
Now that two legendary names in US politics -- Bush and Gore -- have won the Republican and Democratic nominations for 2000, many voters are still expressing their dissatisfaction with the system of politics and with the candidates who won under this system.
Consider the following --
A recent poll in Time magazine showed that 33 per cent of all registered voters are dissatisfied with the two major party nominees;
When Newsweek asked voters their preference for president and inserted the name of the defeated Republican candidate, John McCain, as one of the choices, the results were George W Bush 35 per cent, McCain 32 per cent and Al Gore 28 per cent!
McCain won the support of almost 30 per cent of all Republican and Democratic votes and over 40 per cent of all independent voters;
Another soon to be released poll that factors Ralph Nader, the consumer rights advocate who will run as a Green Party candidate, and Ross Perot into the contest, shows that more than a quarter of all voters would give strong consideration to voting for either of the two, if given the chance.
In a real sense, the 2000 election, while still eight months away, is still in a highly volatile state.
When the Republican and Democratic candidates are placed head to head, some early polls show Democrat Al Gore ahead by a few points while others show Republican Governor George W Bush slightly ahead. In reality, however, the 2000 contest will feature at least four serious candidates: Bush, Gore, a Reform Party candidate and Nader. In such a four-person contest, the picture becomes quite cloudy.
For almost a generation, Nader, a proud Arab American, has been the US's leading advocate for consumer protection, auto safety, health care reform and environmental safeguards. He is a virtual legend, with a substantial and devoted following.
Nader ran for president in 1996 as the Green Party candidate. A reluctant candidate, he agreed only to place his name on the ballot in order to give the party a standard bearer and pledged not to campaign or to raise or spend any money on behalf of his candidacy.
Nevertheless, in the handful of states where the Green Party was on the ballot, Nader's name alone attracted 700,000 voters. In California, he drew almost 2.5 per cent of the vote. This year in California's open primary, despite the fact that Nader's name was not even on the ballot, over 100,000 voters wrote in his name -- a testimony to his strong grass-roots support.
Nader has pledged to run a fall campaign. He is now actively raising money, speaking at campaign rallies across the United States and planning the strategy to hire staff and organise a national grass roots campaign.
The Green Party has become a viable political force in a number of western states. By attracting 15 per cent of the total vote in some congressional elections in 1998, with lesser-known names on the ballot, the Greens have altered the outcome of a number of congressional races.
This year, Nader's Green Party and the Reform Party candidate (which may be conservative TV commentator Pat Buchanan or party founder Perot himself) will make a major issue of the negative impact that many voters feel free trade has had on their local economies. The export of US jobs overseas and the lowering of worldwide environmental standards and workers' rights have all become major concerns -- though they have not yet found a champion in electoral politics. A recent poll, for example, showed that 60 per cent felt that free trade had hurt their communities. It is this mood that the Greens and the Reform Party will seek to exploit. Given the volatility of the electorate and the fact that two well-funded and well-organised alternatives will be competing against the Republican and Democratic nominees in November, it is reasonable to expect some surprises as the 2000 election unfolds.
Firstly, it will be fascinating to see how Bush and Gore respond, both to this situation, and to their own perceived weaknesses, with their choices for vice presidential running mates. If Bush can convince former General Colin Powell to join his campaign or if he can make peace with John McCain -- two very unlikely scenarios -- such a combination could excite voter interest and help compensate for what some feel are Bush's shortcomings.
Similarly, if the Democratic nominee Al Gore can buttress his candidacy with, as one political commentator suggested, a seasoned statesman of integrity like former Senator George Mitchell, this would offer considerable help to Gore's effort.
But even with the addition of dramatic choices as vice-presidential candidates, there will still be two other parties on the ballot that might take as little as 15 per cent or as much as 25 per cent of the total vote away from the Republican and Democratic candidates.
Since winning the presidency is a state-by-state contest in which the candidates must win enough individual states to garner half of the total electoral votes (which are apportioned to each state based on their population), it is important to observe just how competitive two additional candidates can make the overall race.
In 1992, Ross Perot ran against the Democratic and Republican nominees. That year, he won 19 per cent of the overall vote. In 1996, he won eight per cent. Many observers feel that while Perot won no state electoral votes in either contest, his presence in the 1992 race hurt President George Bush's re-election effort. Since Clinton won by less than five per cent of the vote in 10 states, Perot's voters may have been decisive in the outcome of that election.
It is almost certain that neither the Green Party or Reform Party will win in 2000. (Although if Senator John McCain runs, some polls suggest that he would be a very competitive candidate.) But it is equally certain that their presence on the ballot, given the continuing problem of voter alienation, has the potential to influence the outcome -- depending on whether they draw their voters from the Republican or the Democratic candidates.
What all of this means is that the 2000 presidential election, unless shaken up by some dramatic and unexpected events, may very well be extraordinarily close. In this environment a shift of allegiances by even one or two per cent of voters in an individual state may be critical.
Small organised groups like Arab Americans are taking note of this situation and are assessing how best to intensify their efforts. In Michigan, where Arab Americans can count for as much as four per cent of the vote or in other key states where Arab Americans represent two per cent, their role, though small, will be important this year. The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute.
