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Al-Ahram Weekly 30 March - 5 April 2000 Issue No. 475 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 30 March - 5 April 2000 Issue No. 475
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Special Focus Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Life after peace
By Salama Ahmed Salama
No one can deny Egypt its historical regional role, particularly after the machine guns fall silent and negotiations are concluded. Still, Egypt's position will ultimately depend on Egypt itself and its ability to face those changes. Thus it must be conceded that those who warn against the illusion of restricting oneself to a solely regional role have a point.
Precedents inevitably come to mind. Russia's role was drastically diminished as soon as the Cold War came to an end, causing the collapse of communism and the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc, with its members joining European and Atlantic organisations. Russia's status as a world power thus changed significantly; had Russia not possessed nuclear weapons and missiles, the Bear's hide would have been sold cheaply on the lucrative global market.
Egypt is no world power and possesses no nuclear weapons. The Arab context, moreover, is in its worst and weakest state. But the American agenda for the Middle East is full of plans, which are not necessarily in the interest of Egypt or the Arab world. We have witnessed how some Arab states rushed into normalisation with Israel, taking hasty and unstudied steps, while arrangements were made for security cooperation and strategic or military coalition with other states around the world, e.g. Turkey, without the least concern for Arab interests. On the horizon there are now signs of plans -- currently being studied -- to revive the Fertile Crescent and form conglomerates and axes in which Israel is involved with Arab countries and from which Egypt can be excluded most conveniently.
But the most critical and dangerous step that is currently being taken is the attempt to negotiate an Israeli-American defence pact as the basis of all peace agreements with Arab states in the region. Once concluded, this will guarantee Israel vastly superior military power and engender complete American-Israeli dominance over the fate of the region, rendering any talk of independent Arab decision-making a mere figment of the imagination.
Hence Amr Moussa's recent statement that it is time to establish a regional order based on reciprocity and balance, on condition that a just and comprehensive peace is realised. This was by way of a frank diplomatic expression of previously unannounced fears concerning possible complications in Egyptian-American relations, which would arise if American powers that endorse the idea of absolute Israeli military superiority as the basis of peacemaking ultimately prevail. It was also an expression of the pressing need to create new foundations for Egyptian-American relations, ones that embody a balance of power between countries on an equal footing, rather than fostering an increasingly tense political environment.
In the context of President Mubarak's visit to Washington, it is likely that questions of what will happen after peace and how Egyptian-American relations may develop will be discussed intensely and openly, but what is important is that Egypt should have a clear vision of its future role in the region.
I believe that what is most needed for Egypt to become an example to be followed and a regional point of attraction -- one consequence of which would be better Egyptian-American relations and a more secure footing -- is working towards modernising the state and the political order with the same force that is being deployed in modernising the economy, technology and education. Without a comprehensive programme of modernisation for all government institutions, Egypt will be less capable of competing and subject to greater pressures and interventions at a time when the issue of peace in the Middle East will no longer be an excuse -- assuming, of course, that peace is really concluded and does not turn out to be a mere mirage that makes the journey forward an even more difficult endeavour.
