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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 April 2000 Issue No. 476 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 April 2000 Issue No. 476
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Summit Features Focus Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A long hot summer in Lebanon?
By Ranwa YehiaThe Israeli government's decision to withdraw from south Lebanon in July continues to draw mixed reactions from Lebanese officials, with observers saying that the ambiguity of Israel's intentions makes the situation highly volatile.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak announced on 5 March that with or without accords with Syria and Lebanon, Israel will pull its troops out of the area in south Lebanon which it has occupied since 14 March 1978.
"There is a distinct possibility of an unlimited military escalation," Faisal Salman, the managing editor of the daily Al-Safir newspaper told Al-Ahram Weekly.
"Nothing is clear yet. We don't know if Israel will withdraw to internationally-agreed borders as stipulated by [UN Security Council] Resolution 425 or if Israeli troops will simply redeploy," Salman said.
Although Lebanon has welcomed the implementation of Resolution 425, which calls for the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon to the internationally-recognised borders, according to Salman officials in Beirut have hesitated to announce their position until it becomes clear whether Israel will discharge its commitment under the resolution.
"Lebanon wants to know exactly where the borders will be drawn. Since water sources, from which Israel is currently benefiting, are involved, drawing borders will pose problems," Salman predicted. With Israel's occupation of the strategic Syrian Golan Heights which are rich in water resources, the water issue has been a perennial obstacle in the way of resuming peace talks.
Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa recently announced that the Geneva summit had failed due to Israel's demand for full sovereignty over the Jordan River waters and Lake Tiberias (the Sea of Galilee). Syria rejected this position and emphasised its incompatibility with UN Security Council resolutions.
Another issue that remains unclear regarding an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon is the future of 367,000 Palestinian refugees living in 12 camps in Lebanon.
"Lebanon considers Israel the reason for the presence of Palestinian refugees. It is out of the question for Lebanon to sign a peace deal with Israel without finding a solution for the refugees," Salman said.
With regard to a military escalation, Salman said Lebanese President Emile Lahoud had hinted at such a possibility two weeks ago when he warned Israel that there was no question of Lebanon offering any security guarantees to it as long as the question of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon remained unresolved.
On Sunday, a Hizbullah leader warned Israel that it will never enjoy security unless its withdrawal from Lebanon is part of a comprehensive peace settlement with all Arabs, including Palestinians.
"Suppose Israel withdraws [from south Lebanon] and then a member of a Palestinian armed group stages an operation. Who will bear the consequences of such an action?" Salman asked.
He also said that Israel's decision to withdraw was definitely an attempt to divide the Lebanese-Syrian track. "And it looks as though they might succeed because they have US backing," Salman suggested.
Syria has characterised Israel's announcement last month that it would pull out of south Lebanon by July as an attempt to undermine Damascus' relationship with Lebanon.
Salman said that the US and Israel were already exerting enormous pressure on Syria, suggesting that meetings between US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Monday and another meeting between Annan and Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy on Tuesday were held to coordinate positions regarding Syria.
A suggestion by Lebanon's Defence Minister Ghazi Zeaiter on Friday that Syrian troops could be deployed along with Lebanese soldiers on the Lebanese-Israeli border if Israel withdraws unilaterally from south Lebanon was immediately dismissed by Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa.
While Zeaiter later said that his comments only reflected his personal opinion and did not reflect any official position, political analysts suggested that the defence minister might have been acting at the behest of Syria which is interested in gauging the US and Israeli reactions to such a suggestion.
