 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 April 2000 Issue No. 478 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 April 2000 Issue No. 478
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Heritage Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Statehood at a price
By Lamis AndoniFor three years Palestinian President Yasser Arafat has been "threatening" to declare an independent state unilaterally in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This week, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak signalled for the first time that he was willing to give Arafat what he has long sought -- but only if the "Palestinian entity" agrees to Israeli-proposed geographic and jurisdiction parameters.
More significantly, perhaps, is that the price for the Israeli-proposed "quasi-state" would be giving up core Palestinian demands: the right of return for millions of Palestinian refugees and sovereignty over occupied east Jerusalem.
Following Arafat's meeting with US President Bill Clinton scheduled for today, the Palestinian leader will probably be closer to two of the goals he has long been working for: a bigger American role in final status talks with Israel and US support for the declaration of a Palestinian state next September.
US envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross and his deputy, Aaron Miller, will be dispatched to the region to mediate Israeli-Palestinian talks scheduled to resume on 26 April. These will last presumably until a framework agreement on a final settlement is reached by the May deadline agreed on in the second Sharm Al-Sheikh deal concluded last September.
According to sources close to Arafat, American endorsement of a Palestinian state is now more plausible than ever given that Israel appears to have drawn up a map for the projected entity.
Palestinian children demonstrating at Chatila's refugee camp in Lebanon on Monday, demanding the release of prisoners and their right of return to their homeland
(photo: AP)
But as Arafat approaches his desired goals, he is also bracing for accepting US-backed Israeli terms that will drive the last nail in the independent Palestinian state's coffin, according to his Palestinian opponents.
Arafat's opponents fear that Barak's widely publicised "vision" of a future Palestinian "state" effectively legitimises the current Palestinian self-rule formula and gives it a permanent status.
The reported plan foresees Palestinian control over 70 per cent of the West Bank, while 10 per cent including settlement clusters would be annexed by Israel. The future of the remaining 20 per cent, mainly the Jordan River Valley and the surrounding hills, would be settled at a later stage of negotiations. Israel has already told Jordan, according to Jordanian sources, that it would not allow any official Palestinian presence in the valley. The crucial issues of east Jerusalem and refugees would also be postponed until later negotiations, according to Israeli press reports.
Several Palestinian officials have condemned the Barak plan. Chief Palestinian negotiator Yasser Abed Rabbo has rejected outright any plan that would effectively create two cantons connected by a web of "safety passages." "I would say to the Israeli officials that our land is not for partition, and it is not for distribution by anyone to anyone," Abed Rabbo told reporters after concluding the second round of negotiations on a final settlement at Bowling Airbase near Washington on Sunday. "We want all the Palestinian territories; 100 per cent peace for 100 per cent of the land," he added.
Frequently the categorical ring of such statements is not reflected in actual Palestinian decisions. Several Palestinian analysts believe that Arafat has stepped up his campaign in recent weeks for the "declaration of a Palestinian state" in an apparent attempt to garner support for a possible "compromise" based on the Israeli proposal. Accordingly, if acceptance of the Israeli proposal would lead to an American-Israeli "recognition" of "a Palestinian state" Arafat's concession would be trumpeted as victory.
Some PA officials point out that Arafat cannot afford "to tamper with Palestinian rights," in spite of the mounting pressure on him. Others are afraid that in return for "an illusion of statehood" Arafat would jeopardise Palestinian rights.
According to Palestinian sources, Arafat's deputy, Mahmoud Abbas, is urging "flexibility" in dealing with the Israeli offer. Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has always argued that Palestinians should take what they are offered to be able to demand more. But this time, many fear there will be no more.
Recently Arafat's main thrust has been to secure formal US recognition of a Palestinian state while Clinton is still in power. The Palestinian leadership sees Clinton "as a friend" and fears that when he leaves the White House, his successor, whether Al Gore or George W Bush, will not be as "sympathetic." Therefore, Clinton's eagerness to conclude an Israeli-Palestinian agreement -- a goal which became more urgent for him after the foundering of the Syrian-Israeli track -- is matched by Arafat's desperation to secure the long-awaited American recognition of a Palestinian state.
The US administration and Arafat seem to be in agreement on another point -- albeit for different reasons: both sides want the framework agreement to include all the outstanding issues, namely, those concerning borders, refugees, east Jerusalem and water.
Palestinian officials fear that Israel would never agree to even discuss these issues. The American administration is interested in achieving a substantial enough deal to secure for itself a legacy of success in the Middle East as well as increasing the prospects for broader normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab countries.
A more comprehensive framework agreement would not only lessen the damage of a failure to meet the September 2000 deadline for a full "final status agreement" but would further isolate Syria. That Washington has backed Barak's plan for a unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon next July seems to be intended to force Damascus into compliance with Israeli preconditions for an agreement. Meanwhile, Washington's immediate attention will focus on the Palestinian track and Arafat, who seems, so far, to be playing along.
