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Al-Ahram Weekly 18 - 24 May 2000 Issue No. 482 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 18 - 24 May 2000 Issue No. 482
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Focus Features Heritage Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A very close call
By Thomas GorguissianThe United States presidential race is still looking tight, and by all accounts, it will likely remain so right up to voting day. A recent poll shows a difference of about five per cent in favour of Texas Governor George Bush -- a warning sign for his rival, Vice President Al Gore. Beside Bush's gains in recent weeks among the crucial women's vote, there is another factor needling Gore's campaign: the Green Party's candidate, Ralph Nader. Nader, with his anti-corporate ideas and environmental agenda, is taking many liberal votes away from Gore, especially in California.
The race between Gore and Bush is going to be "incredibly close," declared elections expert and political observer Charles Cook. And as many political observers agree, the undecided or "swing voters" -- independents and wavering Democrats and Republicans -- will be crucial in guaranteeing victory next November. In all cases it is too early to predict or judge. Political pundits describe the American presidential campaign as "a marathon and not a sprint, with stretches of intense activity and extended lulls in between." There is no doubt that the campaign is in a lull right now. The real excitement is not expected before summer, with the two parties' conventions and the candidates' choice of the running mates.
Although Arizona Senator John McCain suspended his campaign a long time ago, his clout and point of view are still present among political gatherings and media discussions. McCain was scheduled to meet his former rival Bush on Tuesday and talks have been circulating in the last few days about what may come of this so-called summit.
Television evangelist Pat Robertson -- a powerful conservative voice in the Republican party and once a target of McCain's harsh criticism -- warned the Texas governor on Sunday against picking McCain as his running mate, calling McCain a "dangerous" choice.
Political observers are waiting to see what role the religious right will play in the Republican National Convention, and consequently in the presidential elections, but recently gun-control and social-security issues have emerged as heated debate topics.
Bush is trying to stress what Gore's critics have said about the vice president; that he is "too political, too partisan, too slick" and that Gore in the White House means a continuation of the Clinton era, with all its embarrassments. Gore, on the other hand, has described Bush as "inexperienced and irresponsible," and in the last few weeks he has intensified his harsh criticism of the Texas governor using strong words like "risky," "reckless," "smug" and "irresponsible".
On 30 April Al Gore gave his first major foreign-policy speech in Boston. For many it was "a political speech, not a policy speech" as Richard Haass of the Brookings Institution described it. Gore focused on depicting Bush as misguided on matters of defence and use of force and ultimately a puppet of his party.
"Stuck in a Cold War mindset, Governor Bush continues to view Russia and China primarily as present or future enemies," Gore said, adding that "One has to assume that these gaps in Governor Bush's foreign policy views and experience will be filled by the ideologies and inveterate antipathies of his party -- the right-wing, partisan isolationism of the Republican Congressional leadership."
Gore accused Republican leaders of blending this isolationism with obstructionism, saying that they have refused to aid diplomatic and international development efforts and have "held our contributions to the United Nations hostage to their own political agenda for years."
Condoleezza Rice, the top foreign policy adviser for Governor Bush, responded that Gore had misrepresented Bush's views, especially on Russia and China. "The interests of the US are served by engagement with Russia and China," she said, "but you have to engage them in a realistic way, not a romantic one." Bush has made clear his support for a bill on trade relations with China weeks before Congress's closely watched vote. Aides say Bush is planning to give a speech a week before the House vote explaining publicly why he supports strong trade relations between the US and China. His venue for this speech will be Seattle or another city on the West Coast -- a region full of hopes and opportunities for better trade relations with Asia.
As always seems to be the case when criticising Democrats, Rice went on to point out Gore's participation in Clinton administration decisions in reducing the size and the power of the American military. The Bush campaign is expected to focus on maintaining the role of "superpower" and enforcing the need for a missile defense system.
No matter who wins in November, US policy toward the Middle East, and Israel in particular, will not change that much, most foreign policy experts currently agree. The AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) Policy Conference, to be held in Washington 21-23 May 2000, will host both Al Gore and George Bush to speak on America's most powerful lobby for Israel. At that point, more will be learned about the two candidates' views regarding the future of the Jewish state and the region in general.
"American elections rarely turn on issues and almost never turn on foreign-policy issues," argues Charles Cook. Nevertheless, "I think it's probably slightly easier for Bush to convince people that he's big enough for the job than for Gore to ... get people to like or trust him. But it's a very close call," Cook concludes. Let's wait and see.
