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Al-Ahram Weekly 1 - 7 June 2000 Issue No. 484 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 1 - 7 June 2000 Issue No. 484
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Focus Features Heritage Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The morning after
By Salama Ahmed Salama
Israel's hasty withdrawal from Lebanon has tempted certain observers and politicians to guess what impact the event will have on peace prospects on the Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese tracks. Some believe that Israel's pull-out from its "security zone" in southern Lebanon after 22 years of occupation proves that Israel has opted for peace, and that Barak has succeeded in persuading his people of the need to reach a settlement with the Palestinians and Syrians before the end of the year.
Others feel that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon and Syria's determination to maintain quiet along Lebanese-Israeli borders, assisting UN forces in this task, will stabilise the situation on the border, halt Hizbullah operations and create a favourable atmosphere for the resumption of negotiations with Syria. Incorrigible optimists went so far as to assert that in camera negotiations between Syria and Israel were ongoing, and there was a good chance that they would reach an agreement on the Golan.
Despite Syria's reticence with respect to developments in Lebanon, there are no signs that Syria has backed down from the conditions it stipulated regarding Israel's complete withdrawal from the Golan, its right to the waters of Lake Tiberius, and the return to the 1967 borders. Syria's priorities today are to maintain its influence in Lebanon and to preserve Lebanon from a bilateral agreement with Israel that excludes Syria, since it still maintains an army of 35,000 on the ground in Lebanon.
The importance of a meeting at the level of the Damascus Declaration, to be held shortly in Cairo, is clear. The Arab parties must adopt a coordinated position to address the fallout from the withdrawal. They must make every effort to prevent Israel from exploiting the new situation, given that certain problems are still pending and will not be solved without an agreement with Syria. Isolating Syria or letting it come to an agreement with Israel alone will simply be playing into Israel's hands.
On the Palestinian track, Barak will get tougher on agreements for the redeployment of his troops in the West Bank and Gaza. Palestinian- Israeli negotiations held openly or secretly in Sweden cannot be described as encouraging on any count. Arafat faces growing dissatisfaction from Palestinians in the West Bank, even among his own supporters. Palestinian anger provoked by Israel's failure to release Palestinian prisoners, its failure to implement the schedule for withdrawal and its persistence in building new settlements on land confiscated from Palestinians have all turned anger to violence.
Hizbullah's success in driving the Israelis from Lebanon has enhanced the frustration of the Palestinians as they watch their negotiators systematically compromise their demands, or the Palestinian Authority arrest key Palestinian leaders to appease Barak, which only increases Israel's obstinacy. Proposals leaked out of the secret negotiations in Stockholm, conducted by agents like Hassan Asfour, who is disliked intensely by the Palestinian people, seem to indicate that the Palestinians have nothing to look forward to other than a Bantustan deprived of all the basic requirements of a state.
Barak, who is expecting accolades from the Arabs for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon, should not hope for any further compromises. The major advantage of Israel's precipitated departure from Lebanon may be that it will deter the Arabs from rushing to make more compromises. The opportunity to make peace with the Palestinians may already have been missed -- that is, unless Barak and his government make a real change.
