 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 8 - 14 June 2000 Issue No. 485 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 8 - 14 June 2000 Issue No. 485
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Shifting sands
As political alliances are reconfigured in Sudan, President Omar Al-Bashir is now seeking to reconcile with his northern opponents
After Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir's decision in December to ban his ally-turned-rival, Hassan Al-Turabi, from participating in political decision-making, officials say that the president's top priority is to reconcile with the northern opposition.
Most observers in Sudan believe that Al-Bashir has secured his position. The "G-10," as Al-Turabi's top men were referred to in Khartoum since Al-Bashir's military coup in 1989, were among the first to undermine Al-Turabi's role in the ruling party. Holding critical posts such as that of the vice president and minister of information, the G-10 were a force to be reckoned with.
Meanwhile, Al-Bashir has been gaining more and more ground without Al-Turabi, who was the regime's ideologue for over a decade. In his moves to buttress his position, Al-Bashir is working to persuade the northern opposition to take part in the presidential and parliamentary elections that he scheduled for this coming October.
Mubarak Al-Fadl Al-Mahdi, the head of the policy section of the opposition Umma Party, was among 50 party officials who returned to Sudan in April after the party's withdrawal from the opposition umbrella organisation, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), before reconciling with Al-Bashir.
"This regime and the communists earlier tried their luck and came to the conclusion that they cannot actually run Sudan alone with their own party agenda. They have to open up for others," said Al-Fadl Al-Mahdi.
Al-Sadeq Al-Mahdi, the head of Umma Party, who is still in exile, has made it clear that he would only return and hold political office after a political settlement providing for the institutions of liberal democracy.
Al-Fadl Al-Mahdi does not see any contradiction in the Umma Party allying itself with the same regime that removed Al-Sadeq Al-Mahdi from the position of prime minister. "This has happened in Sudan before. Alliances have shifted," he said with a grin.
"We have to expect a reconfiguration of alliances in Sudan because no single group can govern Sudan alone," said Hassan Mekki, professor of political science at the African University in Khartoum. "Al-Bashir is eliminating the influence of Al-Turabi in the state, but Al-Turabi has his disciples and followers. Unless violence erupts, two parties will emerge: the party of the state and the party of Dr Al-Turabi."
While Al-Turabi has initiated the procedures to establish a new party, the government has isolated him in his house in the Manshiat district of Khartoum with no access to the local media.
"This is a coup d'état," said Al-Turabi "[Al-Bashir] is already in power, but this is a coup against all institutions... The president is a soldier. Although he was sworn in under the constitution, and he personally contributed to the very making of the constitution itself, he just ignored it."
But Al-Turabi is not a spent force. After all, he has been in politics for 40 years, and he will not go down easily.
Most observers and Western diplomats say that Al-Bashir is in no hurry to hold early elections since he is now less threatened by Al-Turabi. Currently, the government is working closely with Egyptian and Libyan officials to hold a national reconciliation conference.
The first Egyptian ambassador to Sudan since 1995, Mohamed Assem Ibrahim, spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on the eve of the joint Egyptian-Sudanese technical committee meeting in Khartoum last week. "The Egyptian-Libyan initiative concerns first reconciliation between the parties in Sudan in the north. Once the north is not divided, then we will have a concrete viewpoint on how to handle peace in the south," he said.
If NDA members opt to negotiate with the government, it is John Garang, the leader of main opposition group in the south, the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA), who may be left out in the cold. For a long time Garang was the sole speaker for the southern groups. Now several leaders in the south have begun to object to his claim to speak on their behalf.
According to observers, Al-Bashir's chances, and those of Sudan now look brighter than ever, despite the uncertainty surrounding shifting alliances. The United States and Britain are improving their bilateral relations with Sudan and the US now has a chargé d'affaires in Khartoum.
But Sudan's oil reserves, much of which were discovered in the past two years and are currently a source of contention between the regime and the southern rebels, may be the most important key to a brighter future. The proven reserves of 650 million to 800 million barrels cover only 15 to 20 per cent of areas slated for exploration and Sudanese officials announced that Sudan was open to further exploration.
However, poverty in Sudan is alarmingly widespread. Some estimates suggest that 95 per cent of the population lives in poverty. Added to this are the heavy costs of the war in the south with millions of people displaced or killed, while 70 per cent of the government's annual revenues is spent on the military. Sudan continues to be subjected to UN sanctions and is on the US list of states sponsoring terrorism. Currently, it does not receive any foreign development aid.
Clearly, in order to maximise the benefits of oil wealth greater stability is needed. "The oil will eventually have its effects," said Mubarak Al-Fadl Al-Mahdi. "But as long as there is no political settlement, the expenditures on security and on the war front will continue to drain Sudan's resources."
