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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Prioritising Syrian stability
By Dina EzzatInternal stability, or the lack of it, in Syria under the rule of presidential nominee Bashar Al-Assad is a major concern for Egypt. The impact of domestic developments on Syria's foreign policy is another concern.
The news that came out Monday of rumblings against Bashar from his exiled uncle, former Syrian Vice President Rifaat Al-Assad, left Cairo apprehensive that a possible rift within the Assad family might undermine Syria's stability.
On the eve of the funeral of the late Syrian president, a spokesman for Rifaat said in Spain that Bashar's uncle does not recognise the transfer of power from father to son in Damascus and that he thinks that "what is happening in Syria is a real farce and an unconstitutional piece of theatre." According to the spokesman Hareth Al-Khayar, Rifaat believes that he had a duty to go back to Syria to honour "his responsibilities" to his people.
In Cairo, where top state officials were strongly stressing the need for stability in post-Assad Syria, no official comments on Rifaat's claims were made. However, Cairo did not take the news lightly. Nor were the concerns of Egyptian officials easily dispelled when a few hours later the son of Rifaat was quoted as saying that his father "never claimed to be the legitimate heir to power in Syria." Cairo simply cannot exclude the possibilities of a power struggle between Bashar, who has been groomed by his father for the job, and Rifaat, who coveted the job but was dismissed by his brother for this ambition a few years ago.
"Hafez Al-Assad was a real charismatic leader. His people owed him loyalty. And it is due to this charisma that he managed to spare Syria from the turmoil of political disturbances that it had known before him," commented one Egyptian diplomatic source. He added, "Stability was not a characteristic of Syria before Assad. Now, one has to watch closely to see how Bashar will deal with the sensitive ethnic balance inside his country."
Syrian Muslims are a mix of Sunnis, a majority, and Shi'ites, a minority. The Alawi faction, to which the Assad family belongs, is a minority Shi'ite offshoot with internal disputes of its own.
According to the same diplomatic source, Cairo "hopes that Syria will maintain the stability it knew under Assad." This, he says, is not an idle hope. "Instability in Syria would be of serious concern for Egypt," he added.
As for the choice of Bashar for president, Egyptian officials speaking both on record and on background were sticking to one line: "Egypt is not intervening in the internal affairs of Syria; we merely support the choice of the Syrian people."
To the question whether Egypt is willing to support Bashar, at least in an effort to cement stability in Syria, one senior official replied, "Egypt does support Syria. We will respond to any requests made by Syria. There is no doubt about that."
Instability in Syria would saddle the Arab world with yet another problem of internal political divisions that could cause wide-scale regional turmoil. For the past decade, Cairo has been worried about the impact of political divisions on the territorial unity of Iraq and Sudan. To see Syria faced with any such scenario is something that Egyptian officials hate to contemplate.
In Cairo officials say that stability in Syria is crucial for the entire region given that Syria shares borders with Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel. It is upon the outcome of Bashar's search for stability at home -- provided that he rules for long -- that Syria's foreign policy will hinge.
"Egyptian-Syrian ties are [simply] strategic," Foreign Minister Amr Moussa told reporters on Monday morning. "Egypt is obviously following all sorts of developments... and the transfer of power to a new generation in Syria during the current sensitive stage."
Moussa refused to comment on the potential for unrest in Syria during the coming few weeks or months but he acknowledges that "the passing away of President Al-Assad adds to the issues that we have to worry about and deal with."
The foreign minister expressed Egypt's "hope and faith that Syria will continue to play its acknowledged national role in the Arab region and its positive and national role in the peace process."
Together Egypt and Syria -- even at times of differences -- have managed to maintain a certain balance in the Middle East peace process between the Arab and Israeli stand points. The two countries worked, even if not in a totally coordinated fashion, to keep in check a potential Arab trend to "rush for business and trade with Israel." And, together with Saudi Arabia, the two countries attempted to maintain a minimum inter-Arab coordination on most issues of concern. "We are always hoping for the continuity of the close ties between Egypt and Syria that have rendered great services to the Arab interests," Moussa told reporters when Assad's death was announced.
So far, the impression in Cairo is that Bashar as president will stick to the main guidelines of his father's foreign policy, albeit with a clearer openness towards the West.
On the peace process, Egypt does not seem to be worried about a sudden change of heart in Damascus. "The problem with the peace process on the Syrian track was the land and the Syrian insistence on recovering all of the occupied land; I don't think that there will be a change in this respect if Dr Bashar Al-Assad is elected as successor to President Hafez Al-Assad," Moussa said.
It is perhaps on the issue of post-settlement scenarios that Cairo will still need to learn about Bashar's orientations. Israel has for long been trying to promote a post-settlement set-up based on an economic 'entity' of Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian 'state'. This argument was not welcomed by Egypt. However, it was not rejected by the young Jordanian King Abdullah. Abdullah, who belongs to the generation of young Arab rulers, was the first to call Bashar to express condolences. It is an open question whether Abdullah will persuade Bashar to subscribe to this post-settlement scenario.
Does the passing away of Hafez Al-Assad, then, mean the beginning of a new Middle East? Answered Moussa: "It depends on what is meant by a new Middle East. The Middle East of the peace process will have to continue along this path. Egypt will continue to support the effort of the Syrian people to have all their occupied land returned -- and the same for the Palestinians."
The coming few weeks will be crucial in deciding the next phase of Egyptian-Syrian relations. Depending on how Bashar acts, Egypt will decide if its strategic partnership with Syria could remain unchanged. It is Egypt's desire to maintain these strategic ties that has kept Cairo almost on edge since the passing away of Assad last Saturday.
