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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Handling the Lebanese file
By Zeina KhodrIt could have been Damascus, but it was Beirut. Thousands poured into the streets of the capital to mourn the death of Syrian leader Hafez Al-Assad. A one-week official mourning period was announced, with schools and public institutions ordered shut for two days. Posters of the late president were put up on almost every street corner and building. The chanting of crowds reflected a fierce loyalty: "You will always remain the inspiring leader" and "The legacy is secure with Bashar."
It is an open secret that Syria wields political and military influence over the Lebanese state, so it comes as no surprise that the nation would officially plunge into mourning following the news of Assad's death. Officials from across the political spectrum were quick to pay tribute to the man they described as "a brother, friend and leader."
"Assad was a great Arab leader, who spent his life defending the Arab cause," said Lebanese Prime Minister Selim Al-Hoss. There were also words of praise for Assad's son, Bashar, who is expected to take over the reins of power. "Bashar is in a strong position to succeed his father," the French-language daily L'Orient-Le Jour wrote.
"The smooth transition so far witnessed in Damascus is the result of at least two years of preparations," political analyst Nizar Hamzeh told Al-Ahram Weekly. "This does not mean all is well. Bashar will still have to consolidate his power, both on the internal and regional levels," he added.
While Lebanese officials have expressed little worry that Syria's policies toward Lebanon and the region will change under Bashar, there is mounting unease that resentment in Lebanon about Syria's continued presence and dominance over the country could pose a challenge to Bashar. But Deputy Walid Jumblatt, who heads Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, maintains Lebanese-Syrian ties will remain strong. Over the years, Assad has progressively transferred the so-called "Lebanese file" to Bashar, even though he occupied no official position. "They [ties] will continue to grow under Bashar, who has been personally involved with the Lebanese file," said Jumblatt.
Neighbourly relations; Lebanon's Lahoud with Bashar
Despite the official position, many Lebanese view Syria as an occupying power and anti-Syrian voices have started to grow louder. The occasional challenge had already started to crop up in the months leading up to Assad's death. April witnessed some unusual demonstrations at universities -- mainly in Christian quarters -- demanding the withdrawal of all foreign armies from Lebanon. They were bloodily quelled, but at least a dozen Syrian army checkpoints in the capital and surrounding areas were dismantled last month. The troops are believed to have been redeployed in the Beqaa valley, but observers described the move as an attempt by Damascus to lower its profile.
The protests came at a time when it was becoming clear that Israel's occupation of the south was about to end and many Lebanese were asking what justifies a continued Syrian presence. At the same time, the widely-circulated An-Nahar newspaper has been blasting Syria's role in Lebanon and the presence of some 35,000 troops, which the paper claims "many Lebanese detest and reject." An-Nahar editor Gebran Tueni went even further, calling on authorities to contradict statements made by Syria's Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa that "Syrian presence was needed here to avert another civil war."
"This runs contrary to the government's statement in the aftermath of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, in which they praised national unity after sectarian conflict failed to break out," Tueni said.
Any overt anti-Syrian stance has been spearheaded by the Christian minority, who form one-third of the Lebanese population. But Damascus' patrons in Lebanon do not even acknowledge opposition to the Syrian presence. "The Syrian military presence is directly linked to a decision taken by the executive branch of government," said Deputy House Speaker Elie Al-Ferzly. "The authorities believe there is a need for their presence, and the Lebanese people have confidence in the country's official position."
The 1989 Taif agreement, which put an end to the Lebanese civil war, in effect legitimised the Syrian military presence in the country. Since then, Syria has been the major power broker in Lebanon, with the authority to form and dismantle governments in Beirut.
Because Syria is unlikely to loosen its grip on Lebanon any time soon, one of the main challenges now facing Bashar is maintaining friendly relations with Lebanon "without letting a segment of the population feel that they are being crushed by Syria's interests," analyst Hamzeh told the Weekly. "The issue of Syrian presence here divides the Lebanese, and they themselves have to work out this question," he added.
For now, though, Syrian-Lebanese ties are likely to remain the same. "Any change, in my opinion, will not be drastic," Hamzeh said. "I do not think Syrian forces will be forced to leave the country unless something goes wrong in Syria, which does not seem the case. I believe both Lebanon and Syria will work out some sort of agreement, but any modifications concerning Syrian presence here would only materialise after a Syrian-Israeli peace."
Lebanon has also been coordinating stances with Syria vis-à-vis peace talks with Israel. The country celebrated the Israeli withdrawal from its territories, but has repeatedly stressed that there will be no real peace in the region unless Israel returns the Golan Heights to Damascus.
Some observers here have voiced fears that even after the Israeli pullout, Lebanon could well continue to be the launching pad for Syrian-supported anti-Israeli attacks. As one analyst put it: "For a long time Lebanon has been held hostage to Syria's priority -- which is recovering the Golan, not normalisation with Israel."
