Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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Still waters run deep

By Gareth Jenkins

Turkey has reacted cautiously to the death of Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad, issuing public expressions of condolences to the Syrian people. Privately, however, Turks expressed concerns about internal instability if Assad's son, Bashar, faces challenges from either Islamists or supporters of his uncle, Rifaat, who is currently in exile abroad since leading a coup attempt against the late leader.

\"We know very little about Bashar,\" said a Turkish Foreign Ministry official. \"Of course, he had taken on some responsibilities in Syria before his father's death and headed a few delegations abroad. But we don't know how strong he will be in his own right now that his father has gone.\"

Assad's death came at a time of a thaw in relations between Turkey and Syria. In October 1998 a war between the two countries was narrowly averted after some desperate shuttle diplomacy by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak who managed to convince Assad that Turkey was prepared to act on its threat to invade Syria unless Damascus expelled Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdallah Ocalan.

But over the last few months, Turkish and Syrian diplomats have held a series of meetings to try to improve relations. In May Turkish Economic Minister Recep Onal visited Damascus to try to boost economic ties. On 6 June teams from the two countries' armies even played a football match in Istanbul.

There is little doubt that the warming in relations in the months leading up to Assad's death suited Turkey as Ankara had secured the withdrawal of active Syrian support for the PKK without having to make any concessions on either of Syria's two main grievances against Turkey. Damascus remains concerned by Turkish control over the headwaters of the Euphrates, Syria's main water source, and has refused to renounce its claim to the former Syrian province of Alexandretta, known as Hatay in Turkish, which was annexed by Turkey in 1939.

In his message of condolence to the Syrian people, Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem commented: \"For some time relations between Turkey and Syria have been developing in a positive direction and this will continue.\"

But in the short term Bashar Al-Assad is likely to concentrate on establishing his domestic power base rather than foreign relations.

\"Assad had been preparing Bashar to succeed him for two years, said Husnu Mahalli, a Syrian journalist resident in Turkey with close connections to the regime. \"He had already appointed men who know Bashar to posts in the Syrian Intelligence Service as well as in the Syrian military.\"

But privately many Turks are more cautious. There are concerns that elements in the military close to Rifaat Al-Assad, believed in Turkey to have been one of the main supporters of PKK, may attempt to block Bashar's succession in favour of Rifaat or even put forward a candidate of their own.

\"After Assad's death Syria is likely to experience a period of internal conflict and instability,\" said retired ambassador Gunduz Aktan. \"During this period no one is going to be very concerned about foreign policy. The attitude of the Syrian military is going to be crucial. It may support the new leader or it may want someone from within its own ranks to take power. Turkey will have to pursue a wait-and-see policy.\"

There is also concern that Islamists amongst Syria's Sunni majority, who during the 1980s posed the greatest threat to Assad's rule, may seize the opportunity to break the near monopoly of power enjoyed by the Alawite minority to which the Assad family belongs.

\"I believe that the Sunni majority will become organised again and, although it may take a long time, will challenge both Assad's legacy and his son's rule,\" predicted Fikret Ertan, a columnist for the moderate Turkish Islamist daily Zaman.

There is also an acknowledgment in Ankara that, even if Bashar does succeed in establishing his own regime, in foreign relations he is expected to concentrate initially on the faltering peace process with Israel rather than ties with Turkey. Nor is there any expectation of a radical shift in Syrian attitudes towards Turkey.

\"It is no secret that Syria has territorial aspirations with regard to Hatay and there is a water problem between the two countries,\" said former minister Coskun Kirca. \"No one should expect such things to suddenly disappear. There can't be any major changes in Turkish-Syrian relations.\"

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