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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Open doors for Bashar
By Hoda TewfikSyria after Hafez Al-Assad is a big question mark haunting the American administration. What does Assad's death mean for the Middle East peace process? And how will it affect Israel?
The American assessment of the situation differs significantly from the evaluation made by Arab diplomats based in Washington. What seems to be an unrealistic American assessment takes into account only the interests and hopes of Israel that the new young leader may compromise on the positions his father held steadfastly to.
Bashar Al-Assad was educated in the West and consequently, goes the American theory, he is apt to be somewhat more understanding of Israel's needs. The Americans even hope that he will prove more flexible on the ultra-sensitive issue of withdrawal to the 4 June 1967 borders.
\"It's hard to see that Bashar would agree to something that his father did not accept,\" Shibli Telhami, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Maryland University, said.
But at this moment of uncertainty, the US administration is attempting a more realistic approach, with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright trying hard to get a commitment from the new leader that once the dust settles and when he is ready to focus on the peace process he will lead Syria to the negotiating table with Israel
There is no negotiating breakthrough likely to happen soon, US administration officials say, and yet the US wants Bashar to keep the door open. As peace process coordinator Dennis Ross put it: \"The key thing first of all, for us, is to make sure the door remains open and the US will be prepared to pursue this with the Syrians at a time when, in fact, they feel able to focus on this.\"
But practically speaking, Arab analysts see no chance of reactivating the Syrian track of negotiations this year, citing the transition in Syria, the Clinton administration's preoccupation with the election campaign and the difficulties Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak faces in his coalition. The three principal parties -- Syria, Israel and the US -- will be unable to move, the analysts believe.
Officials told Al-Ahram Weekly that the US is worried mainly about stability along the Lebanese-Israeli border. If Syria affirms its commitment to the peace process with Israel, this will prove a calming factor, taking into consideration the fact that Bashar has been the Syrian official in charge so far of the Lebanese dossier.
\"One result of Assad's death is that the Syrian government has an even greater incentive to preserve calm and stability on the Israeli-Lebanese border,\" Telhami said.
Officials noted that the indications are reasonably good.
\"In the Syrian armed forces we haven't seen any sign of dissent,\" one official said. \"We haven't seen any sign of a change in the deployment of Syrian troops within Lebanon and they are not in any way threatening Israel.\"
Marawan Moashar, Jordan's ambassador to Washington, told the Weekly, \"It is evident that Dr Bashar cannot accept a peace deal short of an Israeli withdrawal to the 4 June 1967 lines. On the other hand, if Israel accepts this condition it should be expected that Dr Bashar would be more open to better relations with all countries in the Middle East. This is a golden opportunity for Israel to seize but only on condition that it gives back all the Syrian land in return for good relations with Syria.\"
As far as Jordan is concerned, Moashar said King Abdullah and Bashar had built a good rapport during the past 18 months. Both are in contact regularly, he said.
Moashar said that times are promising but added that the new leader had to first go through the transition process before taking concrete steps.
In the meantime, the US administration will keep all doors open. \"We remain poised to work in a constructive way when the Syrians are able to turn their attention back to the peace process,\" said White House spokesman Joe Lockhart.
Analysts agree that in the short term there will be a period of uncertainty but that in the long term there is reason for hope. However, the US is anxious to see whether Bashar will ever have the same influence and be able to rule as strongly as his father did. That remains uncertain, said James Rubin, a former State Department spokesman.
With the Syrian track frozen for now, officials say the Clinton administration will push harder for a peace deal between the Palestinians and Israel even though it is hard to expect a final deal if Israel insists on excluding from the negotiations the vital topics of Jerusalem and refugees. Both issues are red lines for Palestinians who have resumed talks with the Israelis in Washington this week.
