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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A new Assad, a new Middle East?
By Dina EzzatOnce Bashar Al-Assad, Hafez Al-Assad's son and heir apparent, is at the helm, which way will he steer Syria? Will he keep to the path of his father's Arab nationalism or adopt a more conciliatory line with Israel? So far there are no clear indications. While the political neophyte ponders the future, he must also look over his shoulder at the threat posed by the ambitions of his exiled uncle, Rifaat Al-Assad. Around Syria, a diplomatic battle has started to try to win Bashar over to various foreign policy perspectives. Even within Syrian itself, there are hawks and doves competing for his favour.
There is a split in Bashar's immediate circle of senior political advisors, Syria-watchers claim. One camp, allegedly, advocates cutting a quick deal with Israel. This would necessitate a willingness to compromise on hitherto unacceptable security arrangements on the Golan. Once the external security threat is diminished, Bashar would be able to focus on long overdue economic reform. Opponents of this line argue that Bashar needs to step back in order to avoid possible political land mines -- the assumption being that a rash move forward is fraught with danger.
According to one informed Arab diplomat, "even if Bashar gets elected he will not be the sole decision-maker on key foreign policy issues." In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see who remains in Bashar's inner circle and who does not.
On the regional scale, those caught in the same geo-political dilemma are looking at the Syrian situation with great interest. Jordan, Israel, and Turkey, on one hand, are sending Bashar direct and indirect messages encouraging him to open up to the West quickly and cut a peace deal. King Abdullah of Jordan was the first Arab ruler to call Bashar after the announcement of his father's death. Bashar and Abdullah, who belong to the same generation of young Arab rulers, are said to be close friends. The Jordanian monarch is hoping to use his close links with the West and the new Syrian ruler to form a diplomatic bridge.
Abdullah has publicly suggested that Bashar should open his mind to the Israeli-American perspective. Abdullah believes that peace, stability and prosperity lie within an economic "entity" that brings together Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian "state" and, hopefully, Syria and Lebanon. If convinced, Bashar would probably sign a peace deal with Israel sooner rather than later in order to use the resulting political momentum to attack the Syrian economic malaise. Israel is impatiently encouraging Bashar to take this first step. "My hope is that whoever will replace [Assad] will understand that Syria's only chance for serious economic growth will come by way of peace with Israel," commented Israeli Justice Minister Yossi Beilin.
Turkey, which almost went to war with Syria two years ago, would also like to see Bashar open up to Israel. A Syrian-Israeli deal would reduce greatly the level of regional military tension. Additionally, a peace settlement between Syria and Israel would allow a clarification of the water claims over the Sea of Galilee and thus facilitate a similar resolution over the headwaters of the Euphrates.
However, the forces working to keep Bashar away from this line are almost as influential. Iran, a very close ally, and Iraq, a longtime political rival, both have an interest in seeing a perpetuation of the Syrian steadfastness against Israel. Sources in Tehran say the news of Assad's death shook the Iranian establishment. Iran fears that a quick peace deal between Syria and Israel could isolate Tehran as the only Middle Eastern state opposed to the "Zionist entity." Iran was very quick to send its foreign minister to Damascus after the news reached Tehran. The diplomatic mission conveyed a message of support and hope for a shared future.
For Iraq, the funeral opened a diplomatic opportunity to mend frayed relations. Although Baghdad and Damascus severed diplomatic ties in 1980, the Iraqi government sent a vice-president to represent its high level of interest in Syrian affairs of state. Iraq is desperate to break out of its isolation. A decade of economic sanctions have wrought havoc on the Iraqi economy. Syria, an immediate neighbour, is an obvious partner for future economic cooperation.
Keeping to a middle path, Egypt is hoping that Bashar will stick to the terms of Arab nationalism, while continuing to pursue a "balanced and fair" peace deal with Israel. Egypt would like to see a gradual Syrian rapprochement with the West. Cairo, however, does not wish Bashar to become unduly friendly with Israel. A settlement that compromises Arab territorial rights would discredit Egyptian-Syrian strategic ties. Peace on Israeli terms would create a Middle East that revolves around Tel Aviv at Cairo's expense. Egypt "hopes and believes that Syria will continue to play its acknowledged national role in the Arab region and its positive and national role in the peace process," as Foreign Minister Amr Moussa commented. Like every country in the region, Egypt is actively planning intensive consultations with Syria.
Meanwhile, Lebanon remains trapped in the geo-political vice of the peace process. If Bashar cuts a deal with Israel, he is likely to be receptive to Beirut's growing wish for a Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon. If Bashar opts to follow in his father's footsteps, on the other hand, then it is likely Syrian troops will stay in Lebanon for some time to come.
Related stories:
Focus on the death of
Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad
