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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 15 - 21 June 2000 Issue No. 486
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Traditions of change
By Salama Ahmed Salama
No sooner was President Assad's funeral over than a flurry of questions, never heard in Syria during his lifetime, began to be posed. The Arab regimes, however, make it a rule not to take issues of life and death or war and peace into consideration. When the inevitable happens, arrangements have to be made within hours. At the same time, the very issues neglected by the Arab regimes have always been the focus of elaborate study by decision-makers and strategists in those countries where the fate of the world is decided.
Syria provided a simple answer to the question of succession. It followed the system applied throughout Arab history in appointing rulers, from the time of Mu'awiya through the Umayyad, Abbasid and Mameluke periods. The modification to the constitution (the age requirement for the president of the republic was lowered from 38 to 34), which may be viewed as an anachronism, confirmed that the late president's son, Bashar, is eligible. It was thus possible to fill the gap created by the disappearance of a ruler of Assad's stature and statesmanship, or at least to postpone the conflict for a while. True, the president died before the scene for the transfer of power had been fully set. Yet the short period Bashar spent near his father familiarising himself with state affairs, learning the intricacies of governance and detecting the problems that could threaten his rule, may have prepared him to some extent for the burden he must now bear.
Credit for the smooth transition of power is not due to Bashar, but rather to the inner circle of the Baath Party, which was close to Assad and has participated in running the state for decades. The members of this circle are power brokers with ambitions of their own, often manifested during the last years of Assad's life. With no political mechanism for the transition of power in place, and given the conditions created by the lurching peace process and the unspoken fears of losing the Golan if internal conflict fragmented the domestic front, it was imperative to close ranks behind Bashar.
Syria's position on withdrawal from Lebanon is the first question the new president will have to address once he is legally instituted. President Assad's death occurred just as negotiations with Israel on the recovery of the Golan had reached a dead end. While Israel does not seem prepared to back down for the time being, Clinton's leverage is waning as he nears the end of his term. It is clear that he is putting off the settlement of the Golan question indefinitely. The most frightening possibility is that political opportunism will cause the US to bring pressure for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Hence, the sooner the new president accedes to power and establishes himself, the better.
As to the requirements for a just peace, Bashar does not seem any less tenacious than his father, despite the advice he has received to show more "flexibility." Egypt and the other Arab countries are bound to accommodate the new realities in Syria and to back the new regime as it struggles to resist US pressure and Israeli manoeuvring.
Once Bashar officially becomes president, he will join the club of young Arab leaders who have acceded to power in four Arab countries in the past year. For three of them, in Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain, succession was hereditary. The fourth acceded to his position because of the domestic balance of power in an absolutist republican presidential regime. This, however, should not become a precedent.
The failure to modernise Arab systems of government is not due to the lack of young potential leaders. The reason, rather, lies in the absence of mechanisms, institutions and traditions of democracy. Nevertheless, all observers hope that the new Syrian president will not only achieve peace and maintain stability in Syria, but also modernise Syrian society and remove the shackles that have delayed its economic and political reform. Damascus is the heart of Arabism, and must move forward to the rhythm of the 21st century.
