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Al-Ahram Weekly 22 - 28 June 2000 Issue No. 487 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 22 - 28 June 2000 Issue No. 487
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Focus Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The challenge of change
By Khaled DawoudThe ninth congress of the ruling Baath party, the first in 15 years, folded in Damascus on Tuesday night on a note that was devoid of surprises. After four days of what one participant described as "relatively restrained debates in view of the state of national mourning," over 1,000 delegates elected Bashar Al-Assad as regional secretary-general -- a post held by his father for 30 years. The election of 34-year-old Bashar paved the way for his official declaration as Syrian president.
On Sunday 25 June, the Syrian parliament will meet to endorse the ruling party's choice and set a date for a nationwide referendum on Bashar's nomination. Parliament Speaker Abdel-Qader Qaddoura said the plebiscite, in which Bashar was likely to win 99.9 per cent of the vote -- a record achieved by the late President Assad five times -- was expected in the first week of July.
In addition to electing Bashar as secretary-general, the congress elected a 21-member Regional Command, the party's highest decision-making body, and a 105-member Central Committee. Bashar headed a six-member sub-committee that nominated candidates for the Regional Command. Analysts said the re-structuring of the Regional Command reflected Bashar's strategy, at least in the short term, to forge ahead with changes that he began introducing with his father's consent a few years ago. Meanwhile, he was careful to ensure the continued loyalty of the late Assad's top aides, whose support was vital for a smooth transition of power. Twelve new members were elected to the Regional Command, while nine kept their long-held posts and eight were removed. Prominent figures in the party's new leadership are Prime Minister Mustafa Miro, his deputy for economic affairs, Nagi Otri, and Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa.
According to reports in the government-controlled press, Bashar was responsible for choosing up to 70 per cent of the ministers in Miro's cabinet, formed in March, and led, with his father's approval, a wide-scale anti-corruption campaign. One dramatic result of this campaign -- also aimed, sources said, at removing any possible opponents to Bashar's rule -- was the suicide of former Prime Minister Mahmoud Al-Zoghbi a month ago. As for "old guards" who kept their posts, Mustafa Tlas, defence minister and a close friend of the late Assad for nearly half a century, topped the list. Vice-presidents Abdel-Halim Khaddam and Zuheir Masharqa, the two Baath Party deputy secretaries-general, Abdallah Al-Ahmar and Soliman Kaddah, and Parliament Speaker Qaddoura also kept their decades-long membership of the Regional Command.
Bashar's younger brother, Maher, 33, who opted for a military career, and Manaf Tlas, 37, son of the defence minister, were also elected as members of Al-Baath's Central Committee.
A member of parliament who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly by telephone from Damascus said that the election of Maher Al-Assad and Manaf Tlas should have been expected. He added that "the new president [Bashar] is surrounded by the same young people who backed him during the late Assad's rule, and it is certain that he will maintain close relations with them."
The same MP also pointed out that Bashar "is fully aware of the importance of experience. He would not pick young people just because they are young. The rule is the ability to address the requirements of the coming stage on both the political and economic fronts."
An opponent of the Syrian government, living in exile, commented: "Bashar is clearly following his father's long-standing policy of rewarding those loyal to him. The question is whether he will also harshly suppress his opponents."
During the four days of debates in the political, economic and organisational committees of the Baath congress, in which Bashar took part, the late Assad's insistence on regaining every inch of the occupied Golan Heights was never questioned.
Vice-President Khaddam told reporters at the end of the congress that Syria was committed to peace as a strategy, provided Israel agreed to withdraw to the lines of 4 June 1967. In earlier statements to the Weekly, Qaddoura said: "Nothing has changed in our position on the Golan. Let those in Israel continue holding on to their dreams and wishes."
Most analysts, including Americans and Israelis, do not anticipate any major moves along the Syrian-Israeli track of negotiations before US President Bill Clinton's term expires at the end of this year. Making a sprint for a peace deal with Israel, which may include unpopular compromises, is probably the last thing Bashar would like to start with, analysts believe.
The real dilemma for the Syrian leader is his awareness that without peace with Israel, foreign investments needed to reform the deteriorating Syrian economy will not be coming forth. Syrian officials, however, shrug off this suggestion.
According to reports submitted to the congress and obtained by the Weekly, much needs to be done to improve the economy. A report submitted to the economic committee conceded that corruption was widespread as a result of low wages and soaring prices. The report also spoke of rising unemployment -- official figures put it at seven per cent, unofficial Western estimates at 20 per cent. According to the same report, government departments are over-staffed by redundant personnel, health and education services are deteriorating and communication systems are outdated. Planning Minister Essam Al-Za'im recently said that the growth rate of the Syrian economy was nil because the official annual growth rate of four per cent is "eaten up by population growth."
Newly-appointed Information Minister Adnan Omran faced a wave of criticism in the congressional discussions for the weak performance of the Syrian press and media. Omran himself could only respond in kind, promising immediate change and innovation. Syria has three daily newspapers, Tishrin, Al-Baath and Al-Thawra, that read and look alike. Their main source of news is the official Syrian News Agency, SANA. Still, observers point to an increasing number of newspaper articles criticising government performance and rampant corruption, which coincided with Bashar's anti-graft campaign. According to participants at the congress, the three official newspapers only distribute 60,000 copies daily. The majority of Syrians turn to Arab satellite television channels as their main source for information.
Many of those who support Bashar as president, both at home and abroad, have based their position on his Western education, which, they believe, have instilled in him an awareness of liberal values and the importance of democracy. Many also cite his good name and youth as proof that he will have the energy he needs for the many challenges ahead. The slogan raised by the official Syrian press, however, is "change within the framework of stability".
