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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 July 2000 Issue No. 491 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 July 2000 Issue No. 491
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Closer to democracy
By Gamal Esaam El-Din
Legislative amendments introduced by the government in compliance with the Supreme Constitutional Court's ruling that the judiciary should oversee all stages of parliamentary elections were approved unanimously by parliament on Sunday. Analysts see this as a significant step towards what could be a re-drawing of the domestic political map.
In the short term, the next four months will be crucial. Parliamentary elections, expected in November, are certain to be the most important event of the immediate future.
Observers, however, wonder whether the amendments, which give the judiciary control over main and auxiliary polling stations, will result in 100 per cent clean elections. This is followed by another question -- will fair elections result in the erosion of the overwhelming majority of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and a larger opposition presence in parliament?
Ayman Nour, a representative of the Wafd party in the outgoing People's Assembly, believes that imposing full judicial supervision on the elections will surely reduce the possibility of rigging. "The opposition believes that full judicial supervision should be supplanted by other measures to ensure that the next elections are marked by complete integrity," he said.
A major loophole in the amendments, Nour argues, is that voters who lose their voting cards remain entitled to take part in the ballot. "This is very dangerous and can open the door to rigging," he says. Still, Nour believes that rigging could be reduced by at least 50 per cent. Baltaga (hooliganism) will also largely disappear and candidates will find it extremely difficult to buy votes. This should raise the opposition's hope for a more competent parliament and a greater share of its seats, he said.
Nour believes that a more balanced representation will be the hallmark of the next parliament. "The opposition may gain more than 50 seats [up from 14 at present], while true independents will have a chance to win at least 70 seats [up from 30]. This could transform the political map and bring more balanced representation, making the process of legislation more intelligible. Egypt may even inch closer to a true parliamentary democracy," he says.
Opposition forces likely to contest the coming elections include the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. Ali Fath El-Bab, the Brotherhood's sole representative in the outgoing parliament, told Al-Ahram Weekly that "codifying full judicial supervision is a very progressive step, but we still do not know how it will be implemented... All options are open, provided that full judicial supervision is effectively implemented."
Members of the NDP are also worried about how full judicial supervision will be implemented. For practical reasons, the government suggested that the 42,000 existing auxiliary balloting stations be reduced to 18,000 so that the judiciary is able to supervise them over a three-week period. The NDP's Ibrahim El-Nimiki, deputy chairman of the outgoing parliament's Legislative Committee, predicts that the ministries of the interior and justice will face difficulties in organising the next elections. "I'm afraid that the two ministries will not be able to implement full judicial supervision as they should in such a short time," he notes. "I do not know how they will even be able to organise the coming elections for the Shura and municipal councils. As a result, the nation may pass through hard times. I think political leaders should start drawing up a long-term strategy for elections in this country immediately."
Speaking before the Shura Council on Saturday, Kamal El-Shazli, minister of state for parliamentary affairs, asserted that the NDP is happy that the next elections will be supervised fully by the judiciary. "It is a good chance for us to refute for ever the opposition's frequent charge that the NDP rigged the elections to win a majority in parliament," said El-Shazli. The NDP controlled over 90 per cent of seats in the outgoing 454-seat parliament.
El-Shazli indicated that allowing voters who lose their voting cards to take part in the ballot should not cause worry to the opposition. "The measure will greatly facilitate voting, because it is stipulated that the names of such voters must be included on the lists of voters. The representatives of candidates [watching the balloting process] should be able to identify these voters and confirm that their names are on the lists," El-Shazli said. As a result of the next elections, El-Shazli predicted that parliamentary "sovereignty" will be strengthened, the rule of law promoted and democracy greatly boosted.
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