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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 July 2000 Issue No. 491 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 July 2000 Issue No. 491
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Circling the wagons
By Marc Munro
In the best of all possible worlds, the concept of an anti-ballistic missile defence system has undeniable appeal. It would make nuclear missiles as obsolete as arrowheads. The men in white coats now seem to be offering hope of deliverance from past mad technological wizardry, but however noble the intention, the idea of a United States National Missile Defence (NMD) system is heretical.
Back in the heady days of détente, Nixon and Brezhnev came to a gentlemen's agreement that they would respect the integrity of each other's arsenals. The logic behind the 1972 Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty was that it is much easier to overwhelm defence systems with a shower of warheads than it is to knock them down. Despite the temptation to betray the faith, the essential wisdom of the ABM treaty has held firm. Great powers have been immobilised by the ever-present threat of nuclear Armageddon.
With the end of the Cold War, however, the Americans are beginning to argue that the former rules of engagement no longer apply. In this unstructured international environment, loose cannons have been set free and the "rogue states" of Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea threaten house and home. They need to be checked and contained. Within these states, the Americans argue, there is a general absence of a rational mind set. Consequently, the former calculus of death and destruction that maintained détente no longer applies.
In 1995 Clinton was still an ABM believer. He vetoed legislation that would have required the deployment of a missile shield by 2003, saying there was no threat justifying such a deployment. However, in the summer of 1998, a congressional panel chaired by former Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld concluded that the emerging ballistic missile threat posed by "rogue states" was "broader, more mature and evolving more rapidly" than had previously been estimated. Later that summer, the panel's worst fears were confirmed; both North Korea and Iran tested their spiffy new missiles.
Amid the hysteria stirred up by the alleged Chinese nuclear espionage in the early months of 1999, President Clinton announced that he had been born again. Funding for NMD was more than doubled to $10.5 billion over the next six years and Congress made it official US policy to deploy a missile defence system "as soon as technologically feasible." Clinton signed the bill into law on 23 July 1999.
On 8 July, Airforce Lt Gen Ronald Kadish, Director of the Ballistic Missile Defence Organisation, points out the difficulties of rocket science
Yet in November of last year an independent review panel headed by retired Air Force General Larry Welch warned of a "rush to failure" in the NMD programme. The Welch report pointed out systematic flaws in design, planning, and management. According to Dr Nira Schwartz, these shortcomings are due to systematic corruption. A former computer software expert for the TRW corporation, Schwartz filed a civil suit in 1996 charging that the defence contractor falsified data regarding the ability of the NMD interceptor missile to differentiate between a real warhead and a decoy. In the 7 March 2000 issue of The New York Times she stated, "It's not a defence of the United States ... It's a conspiracy to allow them to milk the government. They are creating jobs for themselves for life."
No one understood this better than the man who presided over the start of the arms race. On 17 January 1961, in his farewell address to the nation, President Dwight D Eisenhower warned that, "The conjunction of an immense military establishment and a huge arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, and even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every state house and every office of the federal government. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex." Unfortunately, the American public was in no mood to heed his warning.
They were scared to death by the prospect of strange forces ready to destroy the American dream. Before succumbing to his own paranoia, Senator Joseph McCarthy convinced the nation that Godless communists lurked in the shadows plotting against the forces of righteousness. Indeed, the confrontation between communism and capitalism was seen as nothing less than a metaphysical struggle for the fate of mankind.
In 1958 Soviet Premier Nikita Krushchev obligingly reinforced this fear by leering directly into the eyes of American UN representatives and vowing, "We will bury you!" As Sputnik beeped over-head, America warmly embraced the nuclear Frankenstein monster.
Beneath the careful calculus of nuclear co-existence, the malaise of détente was deeply troubling to the American sense of moral purpose. Yet Americans have always considered themselves innocents besieged by murderous heathens. The popular image of the morally guided settlers barricaded behind encircled wagons is a powerful one. Historically, sheer American might has destroyed all who threaten. Sitting Bull knew this ugly reality of American manifest destiny all too well. Despite his crushing victory over General Custer at Little Bighorn (1876), his glory was fleeting. His people were swept into the North Dakota Pine Ridge Reservation and massacred at Wounded Knee Creek. Nearby in the sacred Black Hills, the faces of presidents, Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and Roosevelt on Mount Rushmore signify complete and total victory.
From General Sherman's march to the sea until General MacArthur's island-hopping, unconditional surrender has been the only measure of success. Yet, nuclear weapons forced the Americans to hold their ground. Stuck behind their wagons, Cold Warriors desperately needed a cowboy to save them. Ronald Reagan, the B-movie star who single-handedly wrestled Indians in Cattle Queen of Montana, admirably fit the bill. Yet revelations of an astrology-based lunacy and presidential senility have tended to obfuscate his merits as a leader. Reagan was the "Great Communicator" because he delivered a powerful message. He assured a tired nation that theirs was the good fight.
On 8 March 1983, in a seminal speech to the National Association of Evangelicals, Reagan proclaimed the communist horde to be "the focus of evil in the modern world." He urged the believers to renew the struggle against this "evil empire." Two weeks later he demanded that the wagon-train heighten its defences. In an address to the nation, Reagan called upon the scientific community "to give us the means of rendering those nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete."
Although the war has already been won, the Pentagon still hopes to realise the dream. It plans to deploy the first 20 ground-based interceptors on Central Pacific atoll of Kwajalein in 2005 and add 80 more by 2007. Depending on the shape of future threats, a second site to handle missiles from the Middle East could be added in North Dakota, near Sitting Bull's grave. That would bring the number of interceptors to 250 by 2011.
Unfortunately, since Reagan's speech only 4 out of 15 interceptor tests have successfully intercepted targets -- well short of the target ration of 90 per cent. This uninspiring track record is even more concerning given the fact that tests are designed only to meet a "C-1 threat", which has only simple counter-measures or none at all. As MIT professor Theodore Postol has vocally pointed out, if a nation can build a rocket, inflating aluminium-coated Mylar balloon decoys is child's play.
Despite the failure of the most recent test on 7 July 2000, the NMD wagon-train still trundles along. In a news conference NMD programme director Lieutenant General Ronald Kadish stated, "This is rocket science, so there's a lot of things that can happen." Faith remains unshaken. On 13 July, senators even rejected more stringent testing for the unproven system. It would delay the dream. On the campaign trail, Republican presidential candidate George Bush has promised to build a sea-based system to expand the protection umbrella. This would more than double the current NDM budget estimate of $60 billion.
Since the Bush system would use AEGIS class cruisers, the Iranians are no doubt deeply concerned. In 1988 the USS Vincennes, an AEGIS class warship, mistakenly shot down Iran Air flight 655, killing all 290 people. Last Saturday, Iran test-fired the Shahab-3 missile, which is capable of reaching Israel or US troops in Saudi Arabia. A state broadcast said that it was to "strengthen its defence capability on the basis of the principle of deterrence."
On his way to the 21-23 July G-8 summit in Okinawa, Japan, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a little old-style shuttle diplomacy, stopping in both China and North Korea just in case old alliances need to be maintained. In Beijing, Putin and President Jiang Zemin issued a joint statement making it quite clear they wish to build bridges than reinforce the barricades. "The plan by the United States to develop a National Missile Defence System (NMD) seeks unilateral military and security advantages," the statement said. The plan presents "the gravest adverse consequences not only to the national security of Russia, China and other countries, but also to the security and international strategic stability of the United States itself."
Yet, the Americans are convinced the threat of random wanton attack is real and they will not tolerate it. The United States has urged Putin, who flew into Pyongyang yesterday, to advise the North Koreans to terminate their missile programme. Putin, however, believes the US is a little hysterical. Nevertheless, the American elephant is still wary of the North Korean mouse, but the morally guided United States will not compromise on principle. After negotiations in Kuala Lumpur, US Assistant Secretary of State for Non-Proliferation Robert Einhorn stated on 12 July that the US flatly rejected a North Korean proposal to be compensated $1 billion per year in return for suspending missile exports from North Korea. "The North Koreans should not be compensated for agreeing to stop conducting an act which they should not be conducting in the first place," explained Einhorn.
Back in June, while proselytising the new faith during a world tour, Clinton pontificated that there are far too many states with "people in great need that are spending vast sums of money on defence; it's one of the great tragedies of the world today." President Eisenhower would not have disagreed. Regardless of the cost, however, the American military is getting ready to saddle up for a new crusade.
