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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 July - 2 August 2000 Issue No. 492 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 July - 2 August 2000 Issue No. 492
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Joining the club
By Marc Munro
Before arriving at the 21-23 July Group of Eight (G-8) summit in Okinawa, Japan, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it quite clear that the Kremlin would no longer tolerate being treated like a muscle-bound basket case. Speaking to foreign and local journalists in Moscow prior to the summit, the Russian leader said, "We are not striving to receive any concrete privileges or benefits. If all other developed countries of the world behaved toward Russia no worse than toward their other partners, that would be ideal." Yet, try as he may, old ways of thinking are proving difficult to break.
At the moment, the US Congress is possessed by an overwhelming need to excite latent Cold War fears. Convinced that American security is beset by spooks and turncoats, the US government has initiated a counter-espionage witch-hunt at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. To date, the only infractions the FBI has uncovered are those committed by absent-minded scientists and bumbling bureaucrats.
Nevertheless, once paranoia is set off, it demands justification. On the eve of the Okinawa summit, Congress finally found some hard evidence to substantiate its anxiety: on the sunny island of Cuba, the Russians are maintaining a highly-suspicious radar station. Congress immediately demanded the closure of this "spy station," or else it would torpedo Moscow's efforts to reschedule its $485 million debt.
But the first deputy chief of staff of Russia's armed forces, Valery Manilov, retorted that it is well within the bounds of international law to keep the station. Furthermore, he reminded the Americans that they are "moving closer to violating fundamental agreements when they build sites that can be used for their national anti-missile defence system." Cooler heads at the White House, however, have assured both the Russians and the banks that Cold War nostalgia will not interfere with New World Order business.
With this sideshow ended, the Russian-American slate was cleared for G-8 discussions about the future of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. Yet, before delving into the intricacies of the debate, Putin first tabled a proposal suggested by North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. Apparently, he is willing to give up North Korea's ballistic missile programme in return for aid to engage in peaceful space research. It seems that the impoverished nation is seeking greener pastures elsewhere.
Yet, perhaps the North Korean leader is playing the court jester. There is a cutting irony in the proposal: on the very day Putin announced that Kim Jong-Il wanted to engage in space research, the Zvezda service module -- the centrepiece of the Russian contribution to the International Space Station -- was thrust into orbit. The origins of the station stretch back to President Reagan's 1984 invitation for the world to unite under a common space initiative. In 1991, seeking to normalise relations with the West, Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev jumped on board. As the leader of an impoverished but highly militarised nation, the North Korean leader is doing precisely what Gorbachev did. In an attempt to leverage greater political attention, Kim Jong-Il is using the most effective tool in his diplomatic arsenal.
As he spoke to Clinton of Kim Jong-Il's aspirations, Putin was no doubt reminded that the essential difference between himself and his Korean counterpart is strictly one of scale. On 8 July, in his first state of the nation address, Putin told parliament, "The growing gap between the advanced nations and Russia is pushing us into the group of Third World countries." Two days later, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov announced a new foreign policy focused on greater trade and investment. The IMF is very impressed; so are the foreign investors.
In the last few weeks alone, multimillion-dollar projects have been announced. Ford will produce small cars. Gillette will make razors. Caterpillar has begun making components for earth-moving equipment. Intel has set up a software development centre. These investments, however, are mere pocket change. In Russia, the real money is in arms. Although exact figures in this shady world are hard to find, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has estimated that world-wide military spending in 1999 was somewhere in the neighbourhood of $745 billion.
Yet with the expansion of NATO and the vast American surplus of armaments flooding the market place, Russian producers have lost their competitive advantage. Further compounding Russian difficulties is the 1995 Presidential Decision Directive, which unabashedly states that henceforth arms sales are profit driven. Since the end of the Cold War, Russian sales have shrunk drastically. Last year, arms exports totalled $2.8 billion. This puts Russia fourth in the industry, behind the United States, France and Britain. Once the equal of the United States, Russia accounted for a mere six per cent of all arms delivered last year. Its former rival currently controls 49 per cent of the world trade.
These are disturbing statistics and the Kremlin is doing all it can to reverse the slide. Just prior to his departure for Okinawa, Putin paid a personal visit to an international weapons bazaar in the Urals to ensure that sales were brisk. Mikhail Kalashnikov, the 80-year-old designer of the AK-47, was the other celebrity guest. Since both China and India plan to spend approximately $14 billion each on their militaries, they came with long shopping lists. However, these are traditional markets. The Russians need to expand. Consequently, organisers were delighted to see representatives from General Dynamics, maker of the M1 battle tank, take a keen interest in the Russian arena tank protection system.
Any such sale would, of course, have conditions attached. Russia wants access to the NATO market. Turkey is a prime target for trade expansion. Ankara plans to spend an estimated $150 billion through 2030 upgrading its armed forces. At the moment, Russia is tempting Turkey with an offer of joint production for the S-300 long-range air defence system. This would provide both a technology transfer as well as effective protection against SCUD missiles. Russia is currently engaged in similar joint ventures with Israel. The Russians are hoping the Americans will conclude that the friend of my friends is a friend.
Despite the inroads the Kremlin has made within Israel and Turkey, the Americans are still resistant. On 7 July the US Ambassador to Hungary chastised Budapest for upgrading 14 Russian-built MiG-29 combat aircraft. He said old MiGs could not be deployed in any NATO action. From the moment Putin came into power, he has consistently challenged this manner of thinking. On 5 March, Putin stated outright to a BBC interviewer that the Kremlin sought NATO membership. "Russia is a part of European culture ... what we often talk about as the civilised world," Putin said. "Therefore, it is with difficulty that I imagine NATO as an enemy."
In June, ahead of his first summit with the new Russian president, Clinton said that he would share ABM technology with other "civilised nations," since "it would be unethical" for the US to keep it to itself. Since then Putin has been purposefully contradictory regarding the ABM treaty. On 11 July Putin stated, "I believed, and still believe, that the position of the US president has some basis to it." Then on 19 July, while stopping over in Beijing before the G-8 summit, Putin signed a statement of "strategic partnership" that damned the Americans for wantonly seeking "unilateral military and security advantages."
The message seems schizophrenic. Yet, there is method in the madness. In order to prosper, Russia needs to join the American system of strategic alliances. With the full nuclear force of the former USSR at his fingertips, Putin is not threatened by a handful of ABM interceptors. The contradictions are designed as an ultimatum. Russia is willing to be a constructive military ally or a major diplomatic problem.
Yet despite the Cold War style rhetoric coming from the US Congress, the American military establishment is already slowly bringing Russia into the inner circle. At the end of the year, there will be a Russian-US Theatre Missile Defence exercise in Fort Bliss Texas -- the third such exercise in four years. Furthermore, all the major contractors in the ABM programme have significant joint ventures with the Russians. The new Lockheed Martin Atlas III rocket is powered by the Russian-designed RD-180 engine. Raytheon has been entrusted with the destruction of Russian nuclear weapons in accordance with the START II treaty. Finally, Boeing is the principal shareholder in the Sea Launch consortium. The venture uses Russian command and control to launch commercial satellites from a modified Norwegian oil rig. At the moment, the launch trade is worth $16 billion annually. So, perhaps Kim Jong-Il isn't playing the fool after all.
