Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 August 2000 Issue No. 495
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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A new voice rising?

By Mohamed Khaled

A visitor to Sudan is easily overwhelmed by the complexity of the conflict both within the fundamentalist ruling elite and between it and the fragmented opposition. Likewise, considerable effort needs to be exerted to envisage what the future might hold for a country wracked by civil war, famine, deteriorating living conditions and lack of democracy.

What is clear is that everybody in Sudan now feels the gravity of the crisis that began in December following the falling-out between Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and his former ally, Hassan Al-Turabi. Each of Sudan's diverse political groups has its own answers about how to break out of the current deadlock.

In recent weeks, the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the country's largest opposition group, increased its military activities especially in the Bahr Al-Ghazal region in southern Sudan. The SPLA has been fighting against the government in the south since 1983.

Khartoum, in response, dispatched hundreds of fighters to the region. The capital, meanwhile, took on an air of mobilisation for war; tents were set up in public squares to receive donations for the mujahidin, while songs and slogans proclaiming jihad rang from loudspeakers throughout the city. Yet, most young men stayed at home fearing they would be forcibly conscripted and sent straight to the battlefield.

"We will not give up the jihad against southern rebels despite external pressures," Al-Bashir said as he bade farewell to a group of mujahidin. According to military reports, Wow, the capital of the Bahr Al-Ghazal region, appears to be on the brink of falling to the SPLA rebels after they succeeded in seizing a key bridge on the railway line connecting Wow with the rest of Sudan.

Al-Bashir's government is also hampered by a series of strikes and sit-ins organised by professional syndicates in regions throughout northern Sudan. Doctors, lawyers and teachers are just some of the professionals protesting long delays in the payment of their wages and poor working conditions. Progress in negotiations between those on strike and top government officials is a common topic on the front pages of daily newspapers.

Meanwhile, there is no shortage of regional and international initiatives to facilitate a compromise between the government and its opponents that would allow for the restoration of democracy and an end to military rule.

On the one hand, there is the ongoing African Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) initiative, which has as its main aim ending the civil war in the south. Yet, scores of sessions between SPLA rebels and government officials over the past years have produced little more than short-lived cease-fires. On the other hand, there is the Egyptian-Libyan initiative, for which the stated aim is to achieve a comprehensive settlement that would allow for the return of northern opposition groups and an end to the war in the south.

President Al-Bashir also came up with his own initiative, suggesting a "preparatory dialogue forum" between the government and opposition parties. The aim of the forum, according to Al-Bashir, is to prepare for a conference in Cairo with aims similar to those suggested by Egypt and Libya. Yet, only one day before the 14 August scheduled opening of the conference, the chairman of the forum, Abdel-Rahman Sewar Al-Dahab, announced that it would be postponed for a week. Nearly all Sudanese opposition groups announced they would boycott the meeting.

A spokesman for former Prime Minister Al-Sadeg Al-Mahdi's Ummah Party, which initially welcomed the forum, said the party might not participate due to reservations over how it was going to be run. He added that Ummah members did not want to take part in a gathering in which the government would be the only speaker.

"We demand the expansion of the forum's presidency and extension of the period [during which it will run] to enable the maximum possible consultations among the different political forces," said Mubarak Al-Mahdi of the Ummah Party.

The second biggest Sudanese opposition party, the Democratic Unionist Party, also submitted a memorandum in which it declared it would boycott the forum. "Our memo did not discuss details of the forum's organisation or management, rather, it indicated our rejection of the idea as a whole," said Ali Al-Sayed, a leading party figure. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), an umbrella organisation for many Sudanese opposition groups including the SPLA, said it was "unconditionally boycotting the forum." They said the forum would not achieve positive results as long as the government insists on upholding a series of laws restricting public freedoms. The NDA said the government's failure to invite the SPLA to take part in the forum also renders the meeting pointless.

Al-Turabi, who initiated his own political party after having been ousted from the ruling National Congress Party, also refused to take part in the conference proposed by Al-Bashir.

According to Mahgoub Mohamed Saleh, editor-in-chief of the Khartoum-based independent daily, Al-Ayam, the existence of so many different initiatives created confusion as well as overshadowing the true problems of the Sudanese people. "The voices of the masses have yet to be heard," he said.

According to observers, the conflict between Al-Turabi and Al-Bashir and the split that ensued in the ruling party further complicated the process for achieving a solution politically. Following the establishment of Al-Turabi's own party, the National Popular Congress, Al-Turabi and Al-Bashir argued over the assets of the ruling party and vied for the support of the country's Islamists.

The properties include a considerable number of companies and other income generating assets. And, while there have been reports that the two sides were about to reach a settlement on dividing these, observers believe that Al-Turabi has managed to win the lion's share of the Islamist movement's supporters in Sudan, mainly students and professionals.

Both parties' ongoing preparations for the forthcoming presidential elections in October have exacerbated the already highly charged atmosphere. Numerous stories are being spread about the considerable material and financial support Al-Turabi has received from Islamist organisations in various countries, including Qatar and Malaysia.

More serious, though, are reports that Al-Turabi is preparing for a military coup against Al-Bashir, depending on his supporters within army ranks. Pro-Turabi officials, usually refer to these officers who still maintain their senior posts within the government and army as the Manshiya wing -- a name derived from the Khartoum suburb where Al-Turabi lives. "They will be ready when Al-Turabi makes a move to take power," one analyst, who requested anonymity, told Al-Ahram Weekly.

Support for Al-Bashir seems less assured these days. According to the same analyst there are clear signs of conflict within Al-Bashir's camp, usually referred to as the "palace wing," in reference to the presidential palace. "The conflict within the palace wing is mainly between the civilian and military officials in Al-Bashir's camp," he added.

A Sudanese trade union leader concluded that the majority of Sudan's people are not optimistic about the effectiveness of the ongoing initiatives since they do not address the main problems the country faces. These, he added, seem more sensitive to external pressures and interests than the actual internal situation.

According to this leader, who spoke to the Weekly on condition of anonymity, signs of public dissatisfaction in recent months -- manifested in strikes and student demonstrations -- could turn into a dynamic popular movement.

"This movement is currently closing in on the government and will likely develop in the direction of a popular uprising," he added.

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