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Al-Ahram Weekly 31 August - 6 September 2000 Issue No. 497 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 31 August - 6 September 2000 Issue No. 497
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Cities of the young
By Gihan ShahineCensus figures, released on Sunday by the Central Authority for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), show that Egypt's total population hit 65,205,000 in January 2000. The figure includes 63,305,000 persons living inside Egypt and 900,000 temporary emigrants. Over the last three years, the population has increased by 3,707,000 people. Women account for 48.8 per cent of the population and men for 51.2 per cent.
In 1999 alone, the population rose by 1,291,623 people. The census reveals an average annual increase of 1,235,000. In other words, Egypt has 107,635 new citizens every month or, if calculated in terms of days, 3,539 babies born daily at an alarming birth rate of 24.4 every second.
These were the findings of the annual population report prepared by CAPMAS. A more detailed and comprehensive census is carried out by CAPMAS every 10 years, the last in 1996.
"The new figures indicate a slight rise in the normal annual increase from 1,235,000 to 1,291,000," said Ehab Elwi, chairman of CAPMAS. "This increase, though not alarming, is unfavourable, considering the negative effects of over-population on society and development."
More people mean more mouths to feed, Elwi explains, which puts a strain on the economy. The average annual consumption of wheat, he said, is 170.5 kilogrammes per capita. "That is, we need 11 million tons of wheat to feed our population," Elwi adds. "Just consider our wheat production volume and how much we have to import to feed citizens."
But does the annual population growth mean family planning policies are flawed? Elwi thinks not. "What we care for is the growth rate, not the rise in absolute figures," Elwi said. "Normally, the larger the population, the more births we have, but it is the rate that gives the right indication of whether family planning strategies are foolproof after all."
Despite the natural increase in absolute population figures, the growth rate has remained almost constant since the last 10-year census was carried out in 1996, which marked a drop in growth rates from 2.8 per cent in 1986 to 2.1 per cent in 1996. The same census also revealed a fall in birth rates from 28.5 to 27.5 per 1000 for the same years, a drop that has prevailed since 1996.
These figures were hailed as proof of the success of the national family planning programme, focused on ensuring the ready availability of contraceptives, providing urban and rural areas with family planning services and centres and launching an intensive media campaign to increase public awareness. The programme has also concentrated on improving pre-natal reproductive health care.
As a result, the number of women using contraceptives has more than doubled over the last 15 years. In 1980, only 24 per cent of women of child-bearing age used contraceptives, compared to 49 per cent in 1995. The average Egyptian family currently has 4.6 members, compared to 4.9 members in 1986, which translates into a decrease of around 4.5 million people a year.
A recent USAID study also reveals that family planning policies have been largely successful: more than 47 per cent of married women use contraceptives, 96 per cent of Egyptian women live within five kilometres of a family planning source and there is almost a universal knowledge of at least one method of family planning due to successful outreach campaigns.
These facts have been corroborated by the just-released 2000 World Population Data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau (PRB). The report indicates the number of Egyptian women using contraceptives is nearing the international average of 52 per cent. Also, Egypt has a rate of 26 births per 1000 people -- a figure slightly higher than the international rate of 22 per 1000.
Another good explanation for the decline in population growth rate, as indicated by the 1996 census, is the fact that more people are getting married later in life. Married couples made up 64.8 per cent of people within the legal marriage age range in 1986, but this figure dropped to 61.2 per cent in 1996, when the last comprehensive census was conducted. The number of unmarried people increased from 25.7 per cent to 27.8 per cent. The number of divorced and widowed people dropped by 1.4 per cent over the last 10 years. Marriages below the legal age, which were common in rural areas, have also dropped as a result of the success of the illiteracy eradication programme.
Why, then, is the population overgrowing?
"Because the drop in birth rates did not counter the recent rise in life expectancy and the sharp decrease in mortality rates, especially among mothers and infants, due to effective health care programmes," Elwi explains. "Although family planning policies are effective, more efforts should be made to further bring down birth rates."
According to the PRB report, however, Egypt's population in mid- 2000 stood at 68,344,000, marking a typical annual increase of 1.98 per cent and opening a Pandora's box of questions about the accuracy of CAPMAS figures. The report also reveals other alarming figures: projected population in 2025 will reach 97.431 million and 117.121 million by the year 2050.
Elwi affirmed that the PRB report is exaggerated, having relied on estimates rather than accurate figures. "Our report is highly accurate, for we have surveyed every single birth and death certificate nationwide. Even fishermen in remote islands were counted."
What is troubling, however, is that 23 per cent of the population are aged 10 and below, which will result in an enormous work force in the near future for which Egypt is not prepared.
"Our census also shows the imbalance in the demographic map," Elwi notes. Cairo, alone, is home to 11.31 per cent of the population. The inhabitants of Cairo, Giza and Qalyubiya have reached 15,773,000, representing 24.9 per cent of the total population. The inhabitants of Alexandria, Beheira and Marsa Matrouh number eight million or 12.64 per cent of the population.
"Although emigration from rural to urban areas has decreased by one per cent, emigration from the city to the countryside should be encouraged to attain the desired demographic balance," Elwi said.
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