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Al-Ahram Weekly 7 - 13 September 2000 Issue No. 498 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 7 - 13 September 2000 Issue No. 498
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters New battle of wills
By Salah HemeidAs the new United Nations weapons inspector for Iraq prepares to send his team to Baghdad, speculation is rife that another standoff between Iraq and the United States looms on the horizon.
In a report submitted to the Security Council last week, Hans Blix, the executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), said his new agency was ready to go, having hired and trained the required inspectors needed.
The agency, was created in December to replace the UN Special Commission, which oversaw the disarming of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War. The creation of the new team came after Iraq halted cooperation with Richard Butler and his Special Commission. The inspectors of this body left Iraq in December 1998 prior to US and British airstrikes, launched to punish Iraq for failing to cooperate with Butler and his team.
Iraq, meanwhile, stood defiant and insisted that it will not permit the arms inspectors to start their mission even if Baghdad is threatened with the use of force. Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz reiterated that Baghdad will forbid a new UN weapons inspection team from entering Iraq.
What happens next in this test of wills depends, to a large extent, on whether the government of President Saddam Hussein is ready to show some flexibility. Also important is the response of the Security Council, which is badly divided over the sanctions against Iraq and the weapons monitoring policy. The council is due to meet to decide when the new team should commence its mission. Russia and China are pushing for suspension of the sanctions and a softer approach on weapons inspection, while the United States and Britain are pushing for renewed toughness.
If UN inspectors are allowed back into Iraq, one of their first tasks will be to update their information on several hundred sites that were monitored by the previous inspection commission. But their most daunting task will be the inspection of "sensitive sites," such as presidential palaces and security forces buildings, the inspection of which was one of Iraq's main objections, triggering crises and confrontations between Iraq and the United States.
The United States has insisted that Iraq accept inspections if it wants to get "out of the box" of crippling sanctions imposed following its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. But State Department spokesman Richard Boucher would not say what the US response would be if Baghdad refuses to allow inspectors entry into the country, adding that there were no "specific timetables" for resuming inspections.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon has put an Army Patriot anti-missile battery on alert for a possible deployment to Israel, allegedly due to concern that Iraq might decide to strike during the last days of the US presidential campaign. In an exclusive report on Friday, the paper quoted defence experts as saying that the action was in response to concerns that Iraq might decide to fire surface-to-surface missiles at Israel as the American presidential campaign enters its final two months.
Notably, the paper did not offer hard evidence for US worries that Iraq might launch an attack. It did, however, quote an Israeli expert as saying that the danger of an Iraqi attack cannot be discounted. The expert speculated further that Baghdad might try to harm the chances of Republican candidate George W. Bush by "reminding the people that his father was a failure," -- an Iraqi allegation that former President George Bush had been unsuccessful in unseating Saddam from power.
Baghdad has a different story to tell. Its official media blasted the Washington Post report as "fabrications aimed at stepping up behind-the-scenes hostile actions against Iraq." The Iraqi newspapers said the allegations, although "reflecting a state of confusion in Washington over Iraq, aim at prolonging the economic blockade" imposed on the country.
Indeed, there has long been speculation about "an October surprise" -- that another military confrontation might be sparked between Iraq and the United States just prior to the US presidential elections. In recent weeks, several aides to Republican candidate George Bush expressed strong reservations about the way President Bill Clinton's administration handled the Iraqi situation, promising that if elected, Bush will be tougher on Saddam, perhaps even attempting to remove him from power forcefully.
US officials have privately been saying that the Clinton administration will probably not resort to force, even if Iraq remains defiant. However, the administration has not said what it will do if Iraq provokes a confrontation or challenges Blix and his new team.
Related stories:
New inspector, old hurdles 3 - 9 February 2000
Black anniversary 20 - 26 January 2000
New, 'improved' inspections for Iraq 13 - 19 January 2000
