Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 21 - 27 September 2000 Issue No. 500
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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Oil fuels Gulf tensions

By Salah Hemeid

Just one day after returning to Baghdad from the meeting of OPEC ministers in Vienna, Iraqi Minister of Oil Amir Mohamed Rashid accused Kuwait of stealing oil from Iraq's southern fields, and threatened that his country would take measures to end "the plunder." With the meeting of ministers of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) failure to halt the increase in oil prices, which have been as high as US$36 per barrel, anxiety in the United States and Europe over these prices continues.

Surprisingly, Rashid made his allegations just hours after US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright declared that Washington would not use force to make Baghdad cooperate with a new UN team of arms inspectors that the Security Council is planning to send to Iraq.

During recent weeks, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has probably been watching with delight the increase of oil prices and the protests that they met with in Europe. The Iraqi leader, whose country sits on the world's second largest oil reserves, has probably concluded that with the turmoil in the international oil market, the time has finally come for his country's 10 years of isolation to end.

Rashid's statement, reminiscent of threats which Iraqi officials made prior to its invasion in 1990 of its southern neighbour, raised tension in the Gulf, sending the price of crude even higher. The message Hussein wanted to send to the world, especially to the major industrialised nations, which are anxious to maintain their economic growth, was clear: Iraq can play a key role in lowering the prices in return for an end to sanctions.

US soldiers inspect the remains of an Iraqi tank destroyed during the 1991 Gulf war in the Kuwaiti desert (photo: AP)

Following the Iraqi oil minister's statements, Kuwait started a thunderous campaign accusing Iraq of still entertaining hostile designs and urged the Arab world and the international community to stay alert for a possible Iraqi aggression. Kuwait's Defence Minister Sheikh Salem Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah warned that Baghdad would pay dearly for any military action against his country. "Circumstances are now radically different from those in 1990, and we are on the alert,'' Al-Sabah said.

For its part, the United States denounced Iraqi claims and warned Baghdad against threatening its neighbours. "I genuinely have trouble believing one word out of the mouth of any Iraqi official," said Albright. She even threatened, "We have a credible force in the region and we are prepared to use it at the time and place of our choosing.'' Later, Secretary of Defense William Cohen warned Iraq that it would "face defeat should it repeat the past and take any aggressive action against its neighbours.''

In the midst of this war of words, the Pentagon revealed that Iraqi fighter jets had recently flown over Saudi Arabia for the first time since the end of the Gulf War. Although Washington reported no response to the alleged Iraqi incursions from US air bases in the kingdom, this incident along with the Iraqi air force's recent firing of a new air-to-air missile against US warplanes in the no-fly zone, underscored the fragility of the situation in the region.

Against this tense background, Albright met with eight Iraqi opposition leaders last week. This meeting, said US officials, was aimed at building a legal case against Hussein with the intent of forming a war crimes tribunal to try him along with top Iraqi officials.

Iraq's official media, predictably, denied making any threats against Kuwait, claiming that its neighbour had twisted the complaint made by Rashid to incite the United States to attack Iraq. On 16 September, the Iraqi leader ordered members of the ruling Baath Party to participate in military training exercises in preparation for a possible assault by the American forces. With this order, Hussein raised the level of tension even further in an already volatile situation.

For weeks, the Western media, based on information from American officials, has been speculating that the Iraqi leader will try to capitalise on the critical period just prior to US elections to highlight Iraq's opposition to the sanctions and embarrass the administration of President Bill Clinton.

According to this theory, such an opportunity would arise if and when the new UN weapons inspection team begins its controversial mission. Last week, Hans Blix, chief of the inspection team, said that he intends to dispatch his personnel to Iraq. If, as is predicted, Iraq refuses to cooperate with inspectors, this will most certainly trigger a new confrontation with Washington -- something the US would most certainly wish to avoid at such a critical time.

To avoid being drawn into a new clash with Iraq, Washington asked Blix to postpone his plans and Albright made her announcement that the United States would not resort to force to make Iraq cooperate with inspectors.

Hussein, however, does not seem to be short of tricks. On Sunday he highlighted the turmoil in the oil market caused by the surge in prices, with the aim of reminding the world that he is still a major player in this strategic industry. In a carefully worded statement he warned that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer of oil, "cannot meet demand in a manner that addresses international worries about an oil shortage.'' Through this statement Hussein implied that Iraq has the capacity to address these concerns, but only if sanctions are lifted and his regime's isolation ended. For the next few weeks, it would seem, Hussein will be closely monitoring fuel prices at petrol stations in the United States and the West.

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