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9 -15 November 2000
Issue No.507
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It's wait-and-see in Cairo

By Dina Ezzat

After a frenetic month of diplomacy, which included hosting two summits, Egypt is laying low for the moment, with no immediate plans for initiatives on either the Arab-Israeli negotiations front or that of intra-Arab coordination on Arab-Israeli relations.

"At this stage we intend only to follow up on the results of our efforts during the past month," said one Egyptian diplomat. There was the Sharm Al-Sheikh summit that aimed at ending the bloody clashes in occupied Palestinian territories and the Arab summit which was directed at coordinating Arab action to pressure Israel into relaunching the peace process. "The full range of the impact of these two meetings is still unfolding," the same diplomat added.

In the Qatari capital today, Foreign Minister Amr Moussa and seven of his Arab counterparts, will meet to assess the implementation of the resolutions of the Cairo summit which took place in Cairo late last month.

Comprising the follow-up committee established at the Cairo summit, these ministers represent the states sharing borders with Israel; namely, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine; Morocco, which chairs the Arab League's Jerusalem committee; Tunisia, the Arab member on the UN Security Council and Saudi Arabia, the current chair of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Committee members may also be joined by Bahrain's foreign minister, whose country will chair the GCC beginning next year.

The follow-up committee will assess the level of implementation of the political and operative resolutions of the Arab summit. Regarding relations between Arab countries with Israel, resolutions included a call to forestall launching any new projects for cooperation with Israel in the framework of the peace process and ending all forms of multilateral Arab-Israeli cooperation. Other resolutions were directed towards mobilising international support for Palestinians, specifically, lobbying for an international committee to investigate the bloody clashes in the occupied Palestinian territories and encouraging the UN Security Council to send an international force to the occupied territories to protect the Palestinian people.

So far, some Arab states have closed their representation offices in Tel Aviv. However, no serious progress has been made on the other fronts. Meanwhile, Israel has refused any talk of either an international investigation committee or an international force to be deployed in the occupied territories.

Also on the follow-up committee's agenda, is an assessment of progress on the implementation of economic resolutions adopted by the Cairo summit, including the establishment of two $1 billion-funds to support the Palestinian people and maintain the Arab character of East Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa mosque.

The follow-up committee's meeting is to be held just hours before the foreign ministers of the 54-member Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) are scheduled to meet in Doha on Sunday to prepare for an OIC summit. Expected to take part in the OIC summit, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat will likely use this opportunity to seek additional support for the Palestinian people from non-Arab Muslim countries. "But I don't think that the OIC summit will go beyond the spirit of the resolutions of the Arab summit," commented an OIC diplomatic source. He added, "Nobody is in the mood for an escalation of clashes these days. The general feeling is that since the Palestinians are talking with the Israelis and Americans about ending confrontations on the ground, then we will wait to see what emerges out of these discussions."

For its part, Egypt is not planning to offer ideas for additional measures before the OIC summit. Foreign Minister Moussa, who is expected to head Egypt's delegation to the meeting, told reporters: "Egypt has made all of its suggestions in the communiqué of the Arab summit that it chaired in late October."

Indeed, Arafat will go to Doha from Washington after talks with outgoing US President Bill Clinton. And, before the summit opens on Sunday, Clinton will have also met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

"Arafat is hoping that once the American elections are over, Clinton will no longer be constrained by his concerns for the success of his party's candidate and will be able to suggest a new format for the peace process which may include putting some pressure on Israel," commented a diplomatic source who recently met with Arafat.

As they return home from their respective meetings abroad, Arafat and Barak are expected to stop in Cairo to brief President Hosni Mubarak on the outcome of their talks in Washington and their expectations for the future. If Barak does not pass through Egypt, he will probably send his acting Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben Ami to brief Egyptian officials on his behalf. Ben Ami was scheduled to visit Cairo on Tuesday but decided to delay his trip. "It is important during these times that we listen to what the Israelis have to say about the peace process. They also need to listen to what we have to say on this front," Moussa commented.

So, does Egypt have any new insight on the peace process? Some sources have suggested that Egypt needs to present the Israelis, Palestinians and Americans with a new plan of action to relaunch the peace process. But for Egypt to do this, it will need to know who will be living in the White House for the next four years. It will also need to know whether Arafat wants to continue the Al-Aqsa Intifada, and, if the answer to this is in the affirmative, in what form and with how much intensity. Actually, the only thing that is clear for Egypt at the moment, is what the Israelis want. "Barak is the master of a bad deal. He wants a settlement, but he is not prepared to offer the Palestinians their minimum requirements for a deal," commented an Egyptian official.

Related stories:
A passing cloud 2 - 8 November 2000
Tempered anger at the summit 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Composing the consensus 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Variations on a theme 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
States of emergency 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Solidarity days 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000

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