Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 9 -15 November 2000 Issue No.507
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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A new page for the Brotherhood?

By Omayma Abdel-Latif

On Tuesday, members of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood anxiously awaited a Supreme Military Court ruling in what has come to be known as the "case of professional syndicates." The ruling was delayed, however, for the third time, on this occasion until 19 November. It was almost a year ago that the 20 Brotherhood members, who also belonged to professional syndicates, were arrested on charges of "attempting to infiltrate professional syndicates and reviving the activities of an illegal group."

The significance of this particular court ruling, in the words of Essam El-Erian, a leading Brotherhood member, is that it will be a sort of litmus test for the post-election relationship between the government and the Brothers. He does not think it will necessarily bode well for the Brothers, because "when we merely thought of running for election, the punishment came in the form of imprisonment; but now that some of us have made it to the parliament, the stakes are higher than ever."

El-Erian denies that the Brotherhood's electoral gains were the result of a change of vision or strategy by the group, but does concede that external factors -- such as judicial supervision over the ballot -- may have worked to their advantage. He questioned, however, the legality of the ban prohibiting the Brotherhood from being politically engaged directly and openly. "Who should decide the legality of a political movement? Is it a government that has lost its majority? Or the voters who, despite intensive security measures, have decided to vote for the Brothers?"

El-Erian disclosed that electoral gains have actually led to the group members contemplating the idea of becoming a political party. "We are ready to establish a political party as soon as the government does away with the political parties law. We have our programme and we have the legality we gained from the street," he insisted.

It is on precisely this point that observers from the secular camp take issue, as the constitution bans the establishment of political parties on religious foundations. However, some analysts argue that these elections have led to the emergence of voters as the only political protagonist capable of putting political reform on the fast track.

"People realised that the only way to change the status quo was through the ballot box," Salah Eissa, editor-in-chief of Al-Qahira, told the Weekly. Eissa believes that the Brotherhood made gains because "the elections were not about politics. In this country, when someone uses religious rhetoric, they are sure to win the votes. The election of candidates was not the result of political preferences."

Eissa's reading of the election results suggests that the Brotherhood's performance, though remarkable, should not be blown out of proportion. The Brotherhood fielded 75 candidates, 15 of whom managed to make it through the first and second stages of elections. The number of Brotherhood candidates in the third and final phase is 22. "They exist as a trend and enjoy good organisational capabilities but their success should not make us think that they have heavy political leverage with the masses," Eissa said.

Nigad El-Bora'i, a lawyer and human rights activist, agreed that while the Brothers demonstrated "mobilisation potential, they would, even in an ideal situation, get no more than 60 seats out the 444 contested. They don't represent a majority even in a best-case scenario, and the fact that people voted for them does not at all indicate a transformation in the electorate's political sympathies. They were the only force capable of projecting itself as a movement of the people and for the people," El-Bora'i said.

This, however, was not achieved without a price. Eissa comments on the arbitrary arrests, military trials and continuous harassment by security forces. According to reports faxed by the group to newspapers this week, 108 Brotherhood supporters in Alexandria remain under arrest. In Kerdassa, the house of Brotherhood candidate Tarek Zaki El-Mekkawi was raided by security forces. And Seif El-Islam Hassan El-Banna, another Brotherhood candidate, allegedly received death threats.

Both Eissa and El-Bora'i believe that it is highly unlikely that a shift in favour of the Brotherhood will take place in its relationship with the state. Between 1984 and 1991, the government demonstrated a potential for tolerating the Brotherhood, allowing members a margin of freedom to carry out political activities. They formed an alliance with the Wafd party in the 1984 elections and with the Labour and Liberal parties in 1987. The latter alliance won the largest-ever opposition representation in the People's Assembly, with 60 seats. The group's relationship with the government took a turn for the worse in 1992 when its members won landslide victories in professional syndicate elections. The relationship was further strained with the rise of militant violence against the state.

A breakthrough in the current impasse between the state and what most probably will be the largest opposition force in the coming parliament remains unlikely. Eissa says that the Brothers should stop acting as if they were the alternative to the government. Brotherhood sources deny that they are in fact acting in this way. "We only want to be acknowledged by the state as an existing political force. We should not be treated as second-class citizens denied all rights of citizenship," said El-Erian.

Sources close to the Brotherhood suggested two possible scenarios. In the first, arbitrary arrests of Brotherhood members will continue and a siege will be imposed on all their activities. But in a best-case scenario, the government will accept the legality bestowed on the Brothers through the ballot box and allow them to act through legal channels because they are part of the legislative body.

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Related stories:
Softening the blow
Another bad day at the office 2 - 8 November 2000
Against the odds 2 - 8 November 2000
Election surprises defy pundits 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Poll tough on Islamists 19 - 25 October 2000
The Brothers' last sigh? 5 - 11 October 2000
See Elections 2000

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