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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 9 -15 November 2000 Issue No.507 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 9 -15 November 2000 Issue No.507
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Books Travel Living Sports Profile People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A five per cent solution
By John Whitbeck *The Arab summit in Cairo lived up to the worst fears of the Palestinians and those throughout the Arab world who believed that the moment was finally ripe -- indeed, compellingly overripe -- for concerted, concrete and effective action in support of the beleaguered and besieged Palestinian people.
For all the angry rhetoric, the bottom line was yet another display of timidity, impotence and irresolution, leaving a potentially dangerous impression that, for most Arab leaders (if not for their people), Palestinian rights and lives, Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa are less important than continuing smooth relations with the United States. Indeed, what Arab leader can hold his head high after the Israeli government has hailed the summit's results as a "victory of wisdom"?
While its leaders may not realise it, the Arab world is not impotent. Indeed, it has it within its power to achieve Middle East peace with some measure of justice -- not in some distant future but soon, and not through enhanced violence but through the intelligent and responsible application of restrained but sustained economic pressure.
The concerted, concrete and effective action which the Arab people are demanding -- and which many non-Arabs who care deeply about justice, human rights and international law would welcome -- could take the form of a simple, easily understood and ethically unimpeachable "carrot-and-stick" approach, with both "carrot" and "stick" announced simultaneously, perhaps at the summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference in Qatar.
First, the "carrot." As many Arab and Islamic states as possible would state unambiguously that, once Israel complies fully with international law and UN resolutions by withdrawing from all occupied Arab lands to its internationally recognised borders, they will extend diplomatic recognition to Israel and offer to exchange ambassadors and engage in normal trade relations -- and they should mean it. (Offering such a "carrot" would be difficult and painful after the events of the past month, but doing so would be essential if the "stick" is to have its optimum effect on Western, and particularly American, public opinion, as well as on Israel's own reaction to it.)
Second, the "stick." Saudi Arabia and the other major Arab and Islamic oil producers would state that, until Israel complies fully with international law and UN resolutions by withdrawing from all occupied Arab land to its internationally recognised borders, they will reduce their petroleum production by increments of five per cent each month -- month after month after month -- and they should mean it .
It would, of course, be preferable if the United States, whose unconditional support of Israel has made possible its continuing occupation of Arab lands and prevented the achievement of peace, were to undergo a moral and ethical transformation and if Americans were suddenly to realise both that Palestinians are human beings entitled to basic human rights and that international law should be complied with by all, not only by the poor, the weak and the Arab. Realistically, after so many years of antithetical attitudes, such a transformation is most unlikely to occur.
However, if Americans cannot be reached through their hearts or minds, they can be reached through their wallets. Money is the true religion of the United States. If oil prices were to soar and stock market prices were to plunge (as they did on 12 October, when outraged Palestinian civilians were killing Israeli soldiers with their bare hands, Israeli helicopter gunships were rocketing Ramallah and Gaza and the destroyer USS Cole was almost sinking in Aden harbour), Americans would be certain to ask themselves why, precisely, Israel should be permitted to continue defying international law and UN resolutions and denying Palestinians their basic human rights and why the United States, alone, should be unconditionally supporting it in doing so -- at the cost of both worldwide anti-American rage and sharply higher oil prices for Americans.
Since the only honest answers to these fundamental questions are racist ones, no credible answers could be offered publicly, and, with oil prices rising, stock market prices falling and no reversal of these trends in sight, these questions would become more insistent and Israel's defiant position could rapidly become untenable.
Under pressure even from their only unconditional supporters, Israelis might well recognise, sooner than anyone would dare to hope today, that their own security will never be ensured so long as they illegally occupy any Arab lands and that full compliance with international law and UN resolutions, in Palestine and Syria just as in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, is profoundly in Israel's own self-interest, has in any event become unavoidable and should therefore be embraced sooner rather than later.
While waiting for economic discomfort to stimulate common sense and produce the result that serves the interests of all, Arab and Islamic petroleum producers would suffer no pain or sacrifices. Each five per cent reduction in production would result in a greater than five per cent increase in prices, and moderate but regular reductions in production, unlike a sudden total embargo, should be technically, politically and psychologically sustainable.
Arab leaders who must now be worried about the widening gap between them and their own people would sit more firmly in their seats of power -- and be able to hold their heads high again -- by offering their people a confident, coherent and potentially fruitful course of action. Palestinians, given a reasonable basis to hope again for lives with dignity, would be less eager to seek death with dignity in the streets of Palestine. Young lives could be saved.
If there are better ideas (and there may be), let them be heard, but those who genuinely care about justice and peace in the Middle East should not believe that there is no alternative to staring helplessly into the abyss. The Arab world is not impotent unless its leaders continue to believe that it is -- or choose to make it so.
* The author is an international lawyer who writes frequently on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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Solidarity days 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Tempered anger at the summit 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
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