Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 30 Nov. - 6 Dec. 2000 Issue No.510

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Barak's last throw of the dice

By Graham Usher

On Tuesday night, at around 9 pm, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak accepted fate. "I am not blind," he jeered, rounding on a baying, hostile Knesset. "I see the Knesset wants elections. And if you want elections, I am ready for elections". Within minutes Barak's government was effectively over, and Labour and Likud were deliberating the date of elections for Israel's 16th Knesset, the likeliest being 1, 8 or 16 May 2001.

Given Barak's admission of defeat, the votes cast for the five bills on dissolving the present Knesset became largely academic. But the tallies of 66-23, 75-1 and 79-1 in favour reflected just how low Barak's stock has sunk in virtually every sector of Israeli society.

Aside from Ariel Sharon's Likud opposition party, those voting against the Prime Minister included Shas, Israel's two main Russian parties, the secularist Shinui party and the four Arab parties. It was barely 18 months ago that 95 per cent of the Palestinian electorate in Israel chose Barak as their candidate. Today "he is the worst prime-minister Israel has ever had," said Mohamed Kanan, Member of Knesset from the United Arab List.

Yet Barak's last, desperate throw of the dice was in some ways predictable, despite a political consensus in the Knesset and Israel generally that a National Emergency government would be preferable to early elections given the Palestinian Intifada raging in the occupied territories and Israel's increasing isolation in the Arab world.

First, Barak knows the move will pitch the Likud opposition into disarray. It is no secret that for Sharon early elections are a wholly Pyrrhic victory. On no less than three occasions since Barak came to office Sharon has striven to form a National Unity government, partly to veto any comprehensive peace deal with the Palestinians but also to fend off the challenge to his leadership posed by former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

That challenge for the mantle of Likud is now almost sure to come. The latest opinion polls in Israel showed Netanyahu 20 points ahead of Barak, and ten ahead of Sharon, in the contest for Israel's next prime minister.

Second, early elections are a bluff to the Labour Party's left-wing to either put up or shut up in their griping over the way Barak has handled negotiations with the Palestinians and just about every other aspect of government policy. Barak's gamble is that the hothouse of an election campaign will unite all doubters behind him out of fear of a Sharon or Netanyahu victory.

He may be wrong, as he has been wrong on just about everything else. In the aftermath of Barak's declaration, Knesset Speaker Avraham Burg mooted that he may challenge Barak as Labour's candidate for prime minister. For the dovish wing of Israeli society Burg would certainly be an attractive alternative. One of the founding leaders of Israel's Peace Now movement, Burg is also an orthodox Jew who enjoys cordial relations with Israel's Arab parties.

His candidature could thus perhaps seal an alliance between Labour, Mertz, Shas and the Arab parties that many Israeli analysts see as the only one capable not only of signing but also delivering a permanent agreement with the Palestinians. Barak's efforts to resurrect that alliance now lie in ruins, and it is difficult to see either Shas or the Arab parties rejoining him.

Finally, Barak's election gambit throws down a real challenge to Yasser Arafat. In the last week the Israeli leader has moved rapidly from a policy of crushing the Intifada by military might to one of easing the economic blockade on the Gaza Strip and resuming contacts between Israel and the PA's security forces. He has also floated a radical revision of his peace policy.

Instead of going for an all-or-nothing "end of conflict" with the Palestinians, Barak told Labour MKs on Monday, Israel should prepare itself for a "graded permanent settlement" or long-term interim agreements. These would consist of an early recognition of a Palestinian state, implementation of Israel's long-delayed third West Bank redeployment and "mechanisms" for discussing and delaying final status issues like Jerusalem, settlements and the Palestinian refugees.

This will also almost certainly be the agreement Labour will cast toward Arafat in the course of the election campaign. The condition, of course, is that Arafat use his forces to end the uprising or, as Israel and the US express it, "stop the violence".

Will Arafat take the bait? In 1996, Arafat ruthlessly suppressed his Islamist opponents in the vain hope of getting Shimon Peres elected Israel's prime minister. In 1999, again under enormous international pressure, he deferred on his vow to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state for fear this would aid Netanyahu's re-election. And a mere three months ago there were signals from PA officials that Arafat might be amenable to the kind of "graded permanent settlement" Barak and Labour are now proposing.

But that was before the Intifada, and the new Palestinian consensus it expresses. And this consensus will resist any return to the old Oslo formula of "quiet" in exchange for Israel's piecemeal implementation of interim agreements, says Palestinian negotiator and leader of the Follow-Up Committee of National and Islamic Forces in Gaza, Jamal Zaqout.

"In 1987," he said, "we had an Intifada without negotiations. During Oslo, we had negotiations without an Intifada. And this was the fatal weakness of the negotiations. Without the popular pressure of the uprising, it meant Israel could always impose its interpretation of the agreements as the stronger party. So, yes, we can have negotiations, but not at the expense of the uprising. The Intifada must continue in all circumstances".

Related stories:
No holds barred 23 - 29 November 2000
The cost of weakness 16 - 22 November 2000
Crushing the Intifada -- phase two 16 - 22 November 2000
See Intifada in focus 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Intifada special 19 - 25 October 2000

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