Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 30 Nov. - 6 Dec. 2000 Issue No.510

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Chronicle of a collapse foretold

By Hisham El-Naggar

As of 21 November, Alberto Fujimori ceased to be president of Peru. Observers were unanimous in describing Fujimori's impeachment by Congress as the end of an era. A 10-year era, to be precise, which, if it were up to Fujimori, would have ended only with his death.

As it turned out, Peru did not have to wait that long. Despite Fujimori's "victory" at the polls four months ago, a victory widely believed to have been highly irregular, Peru's caudillo began losing his grip on power when a videotape was released showing his long-time alter ego, Vladimiro Montesinos, bribing an opposition member to switch sides.

The videotape confirmed what most people knew: that Fujimori's rule was mired in corruption, and that Montesinos, the hated number-one henchman, was at the very centre of that corruption. Fujimori tried at first to support Montesinos, but later had to drop him in the hope of saving his own skin.

It did not work. Once Peru -- and much of the world besides -- had concrete proof of the veniality of the regime, its tolerance for Fujimori's abuses was at an end. In vain did Montesinos leave the country for a brief Panamanian exile; in vain did Fujimori pledge to relinquish power next year and call for new elections. Neither public opinion nor the re-energised opposition parties were inclined to give him time for a transition which would enable him to re-emerge on the political scene, while holding on to the better part of his wealth and network of alliances.

The fact was, the key alliance -- the one with Montesinos -- had collapsed. Montesinos was soon to be identified as the regime's evil genius. However hard Fujimori struggled to dissociate himself from the man who had been the architect of his less-than-pristine second and third electoral victories, he was guilty by association.

Montesinos had been crucial to Fujimori because he was his main link with the once politically very active military. Montesinos's disgrace revealed that he had friends as well as bitter enemies in the armed forces. His friends were furious with Fujimori for letting him down. His enemies had little reason to be grateful to Fujimori for dropping him only at the last possible moment.

The epilogue was brief and untidy. Fujimori resorted to comic-opera antics, including his widely publicised car chase in the streets of Lima in search of Montesinos after the latter's unauthorised return to the country. A hitherto unknown officer led a doomed uprising with what turned out to be a handful of men.

Despite the chaos, the country's institutions remained intact. The military did not take power -- as they probably would have done a decade ago, when coups were fashionable and not altogether unacceptable to Washington, the self-anointed arbiter of Latin American morality. The opposition moved against Fujimori, but they did so strictly within the framework of the constitution.

First, they mustered enough congressional votes to depose Martha Hildebrand, the president of Congress and an ally of Fujimori, replacing her with Valentin Paniagua, a long-time Fujimori opponent. Thereafter, the political impotence of Fujimori, who had left the country to attend a pacific rim economic conference in Brunei, was apparent for all to see. The Emperor wore no clothes: it required a minimal effort to certify his nakedness.

Fujimori, who is nobody's fool, saw the writing on the wall and, from the safety of Tokyo to which he made an unscheduled visit, sent his resignation to Congress. His intention was to avoid being impeached, knowing that such a fate would bar him from standing for any electoral post, in effect making him vulnerable to being investigated if he set foot in Peru again.

Congress did not bite on the bait. By an overwhelming majority, they voted to reject his resignation and instead to impeach him, in accordance with article 113 of the constitution, for "moral incapacity." They also voted to accept the resignation, made three weeks before, of Fujimori's vice-president, setting the stage for appointing Paniagua as interim president. Fujimori's disgrace is complete.

His few remaining allies in Congress have been demoralised by his unexpected resignation, insultingly sent from overseas. His enemies -- who, at this stage, include the vast majority of Peruvians -- are exultant. Many expect Fujimori's opponent, Alejandro Toledo, who "lost" the presidential election, to run again for president next year. If he does he has a very good chance of winning.

As often happens when the mighty are fallen, there are not many who are disposed to put in a good word for Fujimori. He will almost certainly remain in Japan, whose citizenship he holds -- being of Japanese descent -- and where several of his relatives are based. Likewise his ill-gotten gains, mutter his detractors, who include his estranged wife, whose smiling face adorned the front page of the latest edition of many a Peruvian tabloid.

And Montesinos? Still at large, though many believe he may have been permanently silenced -- by a Fujimori desperate to eliminate him, by officers who hate him, or by some nervous partner in his many shady deals.

The main challenge facing Paniagua, who will hold the presidency until next year, is to consolidate the country's stability and get the economy going again. Once the euphoria dies down, people will judge the post-Fujimori era by whether it brings prosperity not just to a chosen few, but to the bulk of the long-suffering population.

Some members of the Japanese community in Peru were heard mumbling yesterday that if Fujimori had a hint of decency about him he would commit hara-kiri. This is highly unlikely; it is more probable that he will bide his time and see what awaits him as he settles down for what may be an irreversible exile. After all, the irreversible has a way of reversing itself in today's turbulent times.

Related stories:
Fujimori's swansong 5 - 11 October 2000

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