7 -13 December 2000
Issue No.511
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 7 -13 December 2000 Issue No.511 |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Current issue | Previous issue | Site map | ||
Dialogue not bombs
Iraq and the West (the US and the UK) could well be moving towards another confrontation -- and there is no telling of how big this confrontation could get.
Baghdad is certainly making waves. It has suspended its oil exports to contest both the UN oil pricing system and the international supervision imposed on the Iraqi disbursement of these oil revenues by virtue of the decade long sanctions.
By doing this Iraq is hoping to further challenge the sanctions that do not allow Baghdad to decide on how to spend its oil revenues.
Iraq also wants to restore some symbols of Iraqi sovereignty that have been much undermined since the imposition of sanctions in 1991 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
So far the UN has failed to convince Iraq to reconsider its suspension of oil sales just as much as it has failed to convince Baghdad to allow weapons inspectors to go back to Iraq.
This could give a pretext for the new US President -- be it George W Bush or Al Gore -- to make an easy foreign policy statement by ordering heavy air strikes against Iraqi targets.
Actually, the US has been quite alarmed by a recent trend to violate the US imposed total air embargo on Iraq. Striking Iraq, it would be typical of the American officials to think, would re-enforce the sanctions that the US is still not prepared to remove.
Re-enforcing sanctions on Iraq would be harmful not only to Baghdad but to most other Arab capitals. Prior to the 1991 Gulf War Iraq used to be an economic asset to the Arab world. Its once strong army was certainly a factor of deterrence to Israel.
It would therefore be only reasonable, or at least pragmatic, that Arab countries with good relations with the West and fair relations with Iraq to seek to find communication channels between Baghdad and the new US administration.
Egypt seems to be an obvious candidate for this diplomatic task.
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