21 - 27 December 2000
Issue No.513
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 21 - 27 December 2000 Issue No.513 |
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A different kind of conference
By Hassan Nafaa
The Palestinian cause is at an extremely critical juncture, for the decisions that are taken at this stage will have a profound effect on the future of Palestinians under occupation and in the Diaspora. The PA's options are limited and complex, however. It cannot afford to disregard the electoral battle in Israel, however minimal the differences between the main contenders and their political parties over the final status issues. Nor can it ignore international pressure for the creation of a climate more favourable to the resumption of negotiations (read: for the end of the Intifada). At the same time, however, the PA must do its utmost to preserve the unity of the domestic front, which, in turn, means that it must avoid taking any step that could jeopardise that unity. Unity, however, is contingent upon the perpetuation of the Intifada. The choices to be made here, therefore, also carry a considerable degree of risk.
One of the Intifada's primary effects was that it raised the ceiling of Palestinian demands, so that it will now be virtually impossible for the Palestinian leadership to accept anything less than Israel's clear and unequivocal commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338 and UN General Assembly Resolution 194 -- i.e., full withdrawal to the pre-June 1967 borders and the return of Palestinian refugees. Obviously, any Israeli party that signs an agreement openly granting the Palestinians their full rights will not stand a chance in the elections, for his adversaries will portray him as having surrendered to the PA. Simultaneously, the PA cannot act as though the Intifada was not happening, because that can only imperil Palestinian unity.
Regardless of the current initiative, therefore, I do not believe that the Palestinians and Israelis can reach a sustainable settlement at this juncture. Nor can the Palestinian leadership afford to yield to Israeli, US and, perhaps, Arab pressures to accept a patchwork expedient without some fundamental guarantee of subsequent gains.
It would seem, therefore, that the only way out of the impasse for those parties that are truly keen on reaching a lasting settlement is to set their sights on a comprehensive peace and pave the way for a new international conference comprising Syria and Lebanon in addition to Israel and the PA, and in which the US, Russia, the EU, the UN, as well as Egypt and Jordan would participate. Such a conference would enable all parties to hold their heads high.
The conference I am proposing should be attended by all concerned parties for a set period of time during which all outstanding issues are resolved. Its purpose would not be to abrogate or circumvent previously concluded agreements, but rather to push towards the ratification of final accords, while providing the necessary balance and cohesion between the various issues and eliminating all sources of ambiguity and misunderstanding.
Whatever the obstacles in the way of such a conference, many compelling factors work in its favour. First, this time there would not be a problem with the representation of the Palestinian people. Israel has recognised the PLO and the PA has been established on the ground. Second, it is abundantly clear, especially to the Arab nations, that separate or secret negotiations (of the sort currently being held) and piecemeal solutions only spell failure and complicate matters further. If there is a true consensus that peace must be comprehensive or cannot exist at all, the only way to act is to hold an international peace conference as described above in order to resolve all outstanding issues at one go. Third, such a conference would provide the opportunity to redress the flaws in the structure of the negotiating process that has prevailed up to the present and that grants the US a monopoly over decisions pertaining to pace and direction. The conference I envision will bring on board other international powers, as well as the UN, more accurately reflecting their weight in the international order as well as the will of the international community. Finally, for both the Palestinians and the Israelis, this peace conference would offer an honourable way out of their predicaments because it would constitute an affirmation that we have turned over an entirely new leaf in the search of a just and comprehensive peace.
However, certain conditions must be met if such a conference is to succeed. All parties must reaffirm their commitment to the above-mentioned UN resolutions as the terms of reference and agree that the purpose of the conference is to examine how to put these into effect, not to negotiate them once again. In addition, Israel must agree to the presence of an international observer force stationed in the occupied territories and withdraw its own forces from the flashpoints in order to restore calm and rebuild trust. Finally, the Arab countries must have a clear understanding of the available alternatives, a precise negotiating strategy and a clear proposal for peace with Israel. The plan, moreover, must clearly assign roles and responsibilities to the various Arab parties both during the negotiating phase and after a settlement is reached.
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