18 - 24 January 2001
Issue No.517
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 18 - 24 January 2001 Issue No.517 |
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Egypt's next Middle East
The occasion was a three-day conference on the nature of Egypt's foreign policy. The debate, however, focused on the interests underlying its external relations and the challenges ahead.
Foreign Ministre Amr Moussa addresses the Cairo University conference on Saturday
Photo: Adel Anis
During his inaugural address to the conference organised by Cairo University's Centre for Political Studies, Foreign Minister Amr Moussa asked the key diplomats and political scientists participating to contemplate the prospects for the region.
Such a task implied the need to examine political and economic relations in the region and to assess the possibility that additional states might come to be considered part of the Middle East in the near future.
In his remarks on the Arab-Israeli conflict, Moussa adopted a long-term approach. "When one looks at the state of the Arab-Israeli conflict, or relations, one finds that the situation today is much better than it was 10 or 15 years ago," the foreign minister said. He explained: "A few years ago it was argued that there is no such thing as the Palestinian people, but today there is a recognition of the rights of the Palestinian people. The once taboo issue of Jerusalem is now open [for negotiation]. And, we are talking about a Palestinian state."
The assumption that "peace" would be achieved, sooner or later, was not debated in any of the conference's 10 sessions. However, the discussion of all issues, including nuclear capabilities and the inclusion of Eurasian states in the definition of the Middle East, seemed to be based on an underlying belief that peace -- or a "settlement" -- will inevitably be achieved. Given such a consensus, one of the questions that emerged was: how would Egypt fare in comparison to Israel in this coming Middle East?
By giving more attention to the Eurasian states, Egypt would forge closer political ties with additional developing countries and increase its access to these markets, suggested participants. But this was not the only rationale they presented for such a strategy; involvement is also important if only to prevent Israel from strengthening its foothold in the area and obtaining the support of the area's states in the UN.
And, those who were worried about Egypt's decision to abandon the nuclear option were less concerned about other key Middle East countries, like Iran, going nuclear than they were about the nuclear imbalance between Egypt and Israel.
Egypt's efforts to get Israel to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or set up a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East should not cause Cairo to abandon all nuclear options, a university professor suggested. During a seminar on Egypt's foreign policy, Professor Mustafa Elwi said, "Egypt made a gross strategic miscalculation when it chose to ratify the NPT in 1981." Today, he argued, "Egypt should certainly pursue a peaceful nuclear option because such capabilities can be transformed to perform non-peaceful ends in a very short time."
Even Moussa did not rule out changes to nuclear capacities in the Middle East. He insisted that Egypt's "regional leadership" could only be sustained through economic, technological as well as political and cultural advancement. However, he also made a point of bringing up the regional security issue. "This issue of security has to be addressed. Security for Egypt, as defined at this conference, is not only about the state of armament but also about the political configuration in the Middle East."
"Egypt has to clearly define the ultimate objective of its current intensive involvement in the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict," said Abdel-Alim Mohamed, chief researcher at the Israeli desk of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. Abdel-Alim argued that this involvement should be directed toward the long-term objective of "fixing the balance of the many regional equations with an eye on Egypt's security interests."
Security in the Persian/Arab Gulf, defined as comprising Iraq, Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, was pointed out as another key concern for foreign policy-makers. Cairo, argued, Mohamed Idris, a senior Gulf-studies researcher, must carefully assess the regional and extra-regional threats that face the Gulf. "The Gulf faces many threats. For some Gulf countries, a portion of these threats are internal. Other threats relate to the balance of power among those countries, particularly when it comes to Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia," Idris said. And, of course, there are extra-regional threats.
"For Egypt to have a role in the Gulf, it will need to address the area from a developmental and cultural perspective. It must not deal with it strictly from an economic standpoint -- as the US has done," he added.
Irrespective of how the Middle East evolves, Egypt's top diplomat and his audience agreed, the main interests underlying Egypt's foreign policy would continue more or less unchanged.
Relations with Arab countries will continue to be a focus. And, Egypt will have to maintain close ties with Sudan even if Cairo tries to strengthen its ties with African states -- particularly those of the Nile basin.
Also, within the current or future Middle East, Egypt will have to maintain close ties with the EU and the US. Moreover, whether or not more states come to be considered part of the region, and regardless of whether peace is achieved, the country's foreign policy makers will have to dedicate more attention to promoting the Egyptian economy.
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