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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 18 - 24 January 2001 Issue No.517 |
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Congo's fate in doubt
The Congolese capital was reportedly eerily quiet after news broke on Tuesday night that President Laurent Kabila had been assassinated. It was also claimed that Kabila's son, Joseph, was killed in the exchange of gunfire.
Congolese President Laurent Kabila taking the presidential oath of office in Kinshasa in May 1997
(photo: AFP)
Rumours circulated throughout the city as the fear increased that Kabila's death would create a power vacuum exploited by armed opposition groups that control the eastern, central and northern two-thirds of the vast Central African country.
A curfew has been imposed on Kinshasa between 8pm and 6am, and in a televised address Kabila's Presidential Chief of Staff, Col. Eddy Kapend, urged the Congolese people "to remain calm."
At the time of going to press, the reports of Kabila's death were unconfirmed, and there was still no official announcement on Kabila's fate. CNN was reporting at the same time the president was still alive.
The first reports of Kabila's assassination came from his arch-enemies Rwanda and Uganda and the Rwandan-backed Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD). Belgium, the former colonial power, also announced on Tuesday that Kabila was shot dead. Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel initially confirmed that one of Kabila's personal bodyguards had fatally wounded him, but later backtracked by telling the Associated Press that it was "likely" but "not certain" that Kabila had been killed.
"President Kabila is seriously wounded, but as far as we can tell, he has not breathed his last," Roland Lumumba, a son of the late Congolese leader Patrice Lumumba and currently a member of the Congolese parliament, told Al-Ahram Weekly yesterday.
Julianna Lumumba, the Congolese minister of culture, agreed with her brother. Attending an emergency government meeting on Wednesday, she said that Kabila was still alive but in an intensive care unit in one of the capital's hospitals. She also told the Weekly that the next 48 hours would be critical, as the severity of his wounds would become clear during that time.
Initial reports on Tuesday evening claimed that there had been a coup d'état, but the Belgian foreign minister told AP on the same day that there had been no coup attempt. France also initially said that Kabila had been killed during a military coup, but the French foreign ministry similarly later retracted this statement. However, both Belgian and French sources clearly stated that Kabila had been shot during a meeting with senior Congolese army generals he had previously sacked. Three generals were arrested last week, and Kabila furiously castigated senior army officers about their poor performance in the war with the Ugandan and Rwandan-backed Congolese opposition forces in Kabila's home province of Katanga, a mineral-rich region producing cobalt, copper and uranium which is Congo's main foreign currency earner. Kabila's army has also suffered serious military setbacks in the diamond-rich central Kasai province.
Kabila, who came to power in May 1977, is widely viewed as the main obstacle to peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kabila controls the capital and the second largest city, Lubumbashi, but his forces are fast losing control of the rest of the country. The security situation in the main mining areas is deteriorating rapidly. Angolan, Namibian and Zimbabwean troops that bolster Kabila's military strength are facing intractable logistical and financial problems.
It is not yet clear what would happen if Kabila does indeed permanently exit the scene. Kabila's interior minister, Gaetan Kakudji, would appear to be his most likely civilian successor. However, many senior army officers might be vying for the top post. On the other hand, in Kabila's absence senior army officers may decide instead to give in to external pressures and sign a peace deal with the armed opposition to end the civil war.
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, scheduled to visit Kinshasa and mediate in the Congolese conflict, swiftly cancelled his trip after news of the assassination attempt was broadcast.
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