18 - 24 January 2001
Issue No.517
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 18 - 24 January 2001 Issue No.517 |
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Playing the waiting game
Exactly ten years ago this week, the bombers and missiles of the United States-led alliance pounded targets all over Iraq, signalling the beginning of Desert Storm, or the war to drive Saddam Hussein's troops out of Kuwait. Yet, despite the military campaign, the decade of crippling economic sanctions and the diplomatic isolation imposed on the country, the battle against Saddam continues.
Iraqis in the southern city of Basra start to rebuilt their home, ten years after it was destroyed by US bombings during the 1991 Gulf War
(photo: Reuters)
US President Bill Clinton on Saturday endorsed a decision by the US Navy to change the status of Lieutenant Commander Michael S Speicher, an American pilot whose plane was downed by Iraqi anti-aircraft gunners on the first night of the air campaign, from "killed in war" to "missing in action," a move which requires Baghdad to account for the American officer. American newspapers said the decision to reverse an earlier determination that Speicher had died was taken by Navy Secretary Richard Danzig after "additional information and analysis" by US intelligence reports suggested that Speicher had survived the downing of his plane and afterwards had been seen in Iraqi custody.
Iraq denied the reports that the missing US Navy pilot might have survived after being shot down during the Gulf War, calling the idea a "silly lie." Iraq's Foreign Ministry released documents concerning Speicher on Sunday, in which it detailed a search in the desert under Red Cross supervision in 1995 which "found part of the plane along with evidence that the pilot was killed."
Ten days ago President Clinton, operating on instructions from Congress, devised a plan to give the Iraqi National Congress, a US-backed opposition group in exile which seeks to overthrow Saddam, some $12 million in aid for activities that would include clandestine forays into government-controlled areas "to distribute relief supplies and propaganda inside Iraq." Leaders of the group considered the aid, granted under the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act, a precursor to an armed rebellion they hoped to mount with the help of US weapons and air support. The question now is whether Washington is seeking a confrontation ahead of the assumption of power by the new administration.
As the Clinton administration prepares to transfer power to George W Bush, the US policy towards Iraq still seems to show it regards Saddam as Washington's public enemy number one. Certainly one of the first foreign policy challenges Bush will face is what to do about the fraying of US efforts to isolate Iraq and oust Saddam. President-elect Bush pledged strong support for the Iraq Liberation Act during his campaign. In a debate with the Democratic candidate Al Gore, Bush criticised the Clinton administration's policy towards Iraq, which he said had led to "the coalition against Saddam falling apart or unraveling." He promised that, if elected, he would toughen the sanctions against Iraq.
Several of his top advisers have been vocal in their criticism of Clinton's Iraqi policy, including Secretary of Defence-designate Donald H Rumsfeld. Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell said in his acceptance speech that he would work with American allies to breathe new life into the fraying UN embargo. During the election campaign, hard-line Bush advisers Robert Zoellick and Richard Perie promised a more energetic use of US military power and money to oust Saddam. Zoellick, who is expected to have a job either at the State Department or the National Security Council, proposed using US air power to detach part of Iraq from Saddam's control for use as a base for military operations by the Iraqi opposition against Saddam's regime.
Regardless of what Bush aids have said, the next administration will still face tough choices on what to do with Saddam. Saddam is no longer isolated. In recent months there has been a stream of high-level official visitors to Iraq. This week, the first American activists flew to Baghdad to publicise their opposition to UN sanctions. With high oil prices, revenues have enabled his regime to improve its ties with many countries through commercial deals under the oil-for-food programme. On the other hand, the Palestinian Intifada has increased Arab anger against both the US and Israel, decreasing the US leeway to act against Saddam. Finally, the international coalition which the US managed to forge against Saddam is wavering, with increasing numbers of countries questioning the logic behind the continuation of the sanctions and such hostile policies against Iraq as the two no-fly zones imposed by the US and Britain in northern and southern Iraq.
Inside the US, Bush will meet demands by anti-Saddam circles to continue efforts to contain the Iraqi leader, even if unilaterally. On Thursday the influential chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, Jesse Helms, urged the new administration to take more action to undermine Saddam. "We must have a new Iraqi policy, and such a policy must be based on a clear understanding of this salient fact: nothing will change in Iraq until Saddam Hussein is removed from power," the Republican Senator told the American Enterprise Institute.
In any case, with the Clinton administration's shattered legacy on Iraq, the US Congress evenly divided and an international climate favourable to lifting sanctions, it seems almost impossible to anticipate how events will reshape the US strategy against Iraq under the Bush administration. Such a strategy will also depend on how Saddam will react to it. In the past he has demonstrated a tremendous ability to foil the US attempts to destabilise his regime and pursue his agenda. American presidents- elect have also shown they can change once they become presidents.
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