1 - 7 February 2001
Issue No.519
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 1 - 7 February 2001 Issue No.519 |
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Wanting to believe
Amidst the continuing recession and dollar crises, the rosy picture painted of the economy by Prime Minister Atef Ebeid in his policy statement to the People's Assembly stuck a jarring note, many MPs felt.
Ebeid's optimism, they felt, is patently at odds with the current economic situation. As MP Mohamed Khalil Qiwita pointed out, Ebeid's speech was replete with figures to demonstrate the "unprecedented achievements" of the previous year. Added to these, Qiwita noted, was the claim that the International Monetary Fund had asked Egypt to contribute $150 million to a fund to help poor countries.
Qiwita contrasted Ebeid's remarks -- which asserted that the economy had grown by 5.5 per cent last year, the foreign exchange regime was rationalised and the banking sector made more efficient -- with a recently released Shura Council report that stated almost the opposite. The report said the recession had deepened, the exchange rate was fluctuating wildly and cited instances of corruption in the banking sector.
The accuracy of the prime minister's statistics was also questioned by some deputies. Wafdist MP Mohamed Abdel-Alim expressed scepticism that the economy grew by 5.5 per cent last year. "This is highly unlikely, especially given the significant decline in the volume of exports and Egypt's ranking by the UN Human Development Report at the 120th position in 1999, dropping from 109th in 1995."
Criticism was not limited to the opposition, but was also voiced by some members of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Amin Mubarak, chairman of the assembly's Industry Committee and NDP MP for Menoufiya, said unemployment is generally believed to be much higher than the figure of 1.5 million cited by Ebeid.
Adel Ezz, a former minister of education and a current NDP member of the Shura Council, told the council Ebeid is "just a business administrator and, therefore, not in a good position to be able to deal with major economic issues such as a budget deficit."
Debate concerning the content of Ebeid's speech is likely to continue as the figures cited by the prime minister will be closely scrutinised by an ad hoc People's Assembly committee formed following the speech. Headed by Deputy Speaker Amal Othman, the committee comprises chairpersons of 18 parliamentary committees and representatives from five political parties as well as a few independent deputies.
The controversy concerning Ebeid's statement was not confined to what was in it; deputies also criticised the prime minister for what he left out. For Nasserist MP and journalist Hamdin Sabahi, the issue of political reform merited more attention than it was given. "The statement just emphasised that the government will reinforce cooperation with parliament to ensure that laws passed do not contradict the constitution. This is fine, but what about the frequent calls by opposition and NDP deputies for enlarging the scope of judicial supervision to include all stages of general elections," said Sabahi.
Commenting favourably on Ebeid's statement was NDP deputy Abdallah Tayel, chairman of the economic affairs committee, who praised the prime minister for acknowledging shortcomings in the economic performance during the past year. Ebeid, noted Tayel, conceded that growth fell short of the government's 7 per cent target and that the economy suffered setbacks with the decline in foreign exchange reserves and deficits in balances of payments and trade. "The government admitted all of these imbalances and unveiled new measures to address them in the coming year," Tayel said.
Attributing many of the economic problems to international factors such as the continuing impact of the economic crisis in south-east Asia, Tayel said that, with the exception of the United States, most countries suffered economic stagnation during 2000. Offering his own assessment of the decline in the value of the Egyptian pound, Tayel suggested that the root of the problem lies in increased imports rather than with the practices of private exchange bureaus. "I think that the Ebeid government's success in reducing this [imports] bill will be a top priority if it is keen to remain in power," said Tayel.
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